Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 518 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 31, 32, 33, 34, 35
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:36 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 9, 2014
Posts: 1746
Mantissa wrote:
FTBer wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
And formal rejection rates were higher back in the boom???

I've no idea, but I'd suspect not.
My Stephen Colbert-like "gut hunch" was that the rejection rate should be massively higher in the post-boom world, but like most things "gut-based" that I hadn't thought about for 10 seconds - it wasn't necessarily true according to the broker we used.

Again - I'd love to see meaningful numbers.
Any brokers out there with "hypothetical numbers"?


My hunch would be the opposite -- in the CT days everyone applied for mortgages and *most* people got it. These days people expect it to be a nightmare so only apply if they have everything in order and the local bank person has given them an informal thumbs up. Equally a broker isn't going to submit an application that isn't pristine. I'd expect almost everyone who actually formally applies to get it.

+1

Brokers try and avoid wasting there time on applications which they know will not get approved


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:32 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 12, 2014
Posts: 579
Location: Dublin
Luan wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
FTBer wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
And formal rejection rates were higher back in the boom???

I've no idea, but I'd suspect not.
My Stephen Colbert-like "gut hunch" was that the rejection rate should be massively higher in the post-boom world, but like most things "gut-based" that I hadn't thought about for 10 seconds - it wasn't necessarily true according to the broker we used.

Again - I'd love to see meaningful numbers.
Any brokers out there with "hypothetical numbers"?


My hunch would be the opposite -- in the CT days everyone applied for mortgages and *most* people got it. These days people expect it to be a nightmare so only apply if they have everything in order and the local bank person has given them an informal thumbs up. Equally a broker isn't going to submit an application that isn't pristine. I'd expect almost everyone who actually formally applies to get it.

+1

Brokers try and avoid wasting there time on applications which they know will not get approved

I fully agree - my gut hunch was totally wrong.
If i had thought about it for a few more seconds before asking broker I would have remembered that literally anyone was applying for a mortgage with little information in 04/05.... whereas these days the application standard is much higher, and the application only really formally goes in when it's a close certainty.

Ah foolish me, assuming for a second that


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:17 am 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 4816
Analysis of the Q3 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 ... -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q4 2015: 7,452
Q1 2016: 5,086
Q2 2016: 6,314
Q3 2016: 7,593 (3,952 FTB + 2,622 Mover + 320 RIL + 674*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q3 2016 7,593
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q3 2016 is -79.5% lower than Peak and +294.4% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q4 2014 to Q3 2015 there were 25,528 mortgages by Volume or 2,127 per month
In Q4 2015 to Q3 2016 there were 26,445 mortgages by Volume or 2,204 per month
This shows a change of +3.6% from 12 months previously


Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q4 2015: 1,398m
Q1 2016: 976m
Q2 2016: 1,255m
Q3 2016: 1,515m (723m FTB + 609m Mover + 40m RIL + 142m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q3 2016 1,515m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q3 2016 is -83.1% lower than Peak and +364.0% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q4 2014 to Q3 2015 4,774m was lent for mortgage by Value or 398m per month
In Q4 2015 to Q3 2016 5,143m was lent for mortgages by Value or 429m per month
This shows a change of +7.7% from 12 months previously


Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 182,844 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -27.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 182,844 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +21.7%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 182,844 vs Q3 2015 175,702. Annual increase +4.1%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 232,113 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –17.7%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 232,113 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +17.4%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 232,113 vs Q3 2015 229,433. Annual increase +1.2%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 124,063 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -62.2%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 124,063 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +22.1%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 124,063 vs Q3 2015 120,872. Annual increase +2.6%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 210,831 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -21.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 210,831 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +54.4%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 210,831 vs Q3 2015 225,076. Annual decrease -6.3%


Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I've included 50% of each quarter's Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as "a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release."

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:56 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5321
Location: SthDub
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/pers ... -1.2857583
Quote:
The Central Bank’s mortgage lending rules may be making it more difficult for homeowners to get on, or move up, the property ladder, but figures it released on Monday show more than one in six buyers were exempted from the rules.
Of the almost 11,000 loans drawn down by residential buyers in the first half of the year, that come within the scope of the rules, some 1,744 loans, or 16 per cent, received an exemption, according to an economic letter which provides an update on rule compliance.
The most common exemption was on income multiples, which allows homebuyers to borrow more than 3.5 times their income, while a significant number also borrowed more than 80 per cent of the cost of their home – or 90 per cent for first-time buyers up to €220,000.
The study shows that some €2.3 billion in mortgage loans were offered during the first half of 2016, the vast majority – 93 per cent – covered by Central Bank’s mortgage lending rules.
The study is based on 12,339 loans (some were investments) drawn down from AIB, EBS, Bank of Ireland (BoI), Permanent TSB , Ulster Bank and KBC Bank Ireland.

A 100 per cent mortgage

They may be almost extinct, but the study shows banks are still lending 100 per cent of the purchase price to some borrowers. According to the Central Bank study, a small number of borrowers had a loan-to-value (LTV) of 100 per cent in the first half of the year.
People are borrowing more
The average loan drawn down by first-time buyers was €180,011 (up €7,000 on 2015) and the average price paid for a home was €244,320 (up €9,000 on 2015).
For trader-uppers, the average loan drawn down was €211,662 (up over €7,000 on 2015), the average property price was €380,752 and the average income was €105,473.
While the average LTV for first-time buyers was 78.6 per cent in the first half of 2016, it doesn’t mean that the average first-time buyer has a deposit of more than 22 per cent. As discussed here, most first-time buyers actually borrow more than this, with the Central Bank study showing that more than 70 per cent of first-timers borrow more than 90 per cent.....
....It is possible to get an exemption on both LTV and LTI
Typically, homebuyers are told that if they are looking for an exemption, they can ask either to borrow more than 80 per cent (90 per cent for first-time buyer) or for an income multiple higher than 3.5 – but not both. However, the Central Bank study shows some homeowners have achieved exceptions on both fronts. The numbers doing so are small, however, at less than 1 per cent of the value of total residential lending.

First-time buyers more likely to get income exemption
The study also shines a light on the type of borrowers qualifying for an exception to the rules. According to the Central Bank, second-time buyers accounted for most of the exemptions from the LTV limit (63 per cent), but when it came to the income multiple, far more first-time buyers (72 per cent) benefited from an exception.
A higher share of couples and Dublin-based borrowers sought to borrow more than 80 per cent, and had higher than average incomes. Single buyers were more prevalent among those looking to borrow more than 3.5 times their income. Loans with an LTV allowance were largely grouped between 80 and 90 per cent LTV, with an LTV of 90 per cent being the most common.....


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:34 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 4816
Analysis of the Q4 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 ... ebsite.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q1 2016: 5,086
Q2 2016: 6,314
Q3 2016: 7,593
Q4 2016: 8,423 (4,238 FTB + 2,987 Mover + 371 RIL + 851*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q4 2016 8,423
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q4 2016 is -77.2% lower than Peak and +337.5% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q1 2015 to Q4 2015 there were 25,600 mortgages by Volume or 2,133 per month
In Q1 2016 to Q4 2016 there were 27,416 mortgages by Volume or 2,285 per month
This shows a change of +7.1% from 12 months previously


Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q1 2016: 976m
Q2 2016: 1,255m
Q3 2016: 1,515m
Q4 2016: 1,750m (809m FTB + 716m Mover + 46m RIL + 191m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q4 2016 1,750m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q4 2016 is -80.4% lower than Peak and +435.9% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q1 2015 to Q4 2015 4,816m was lent for mortgage by Value or 401m per month
In Q1 2016 to Q4 2016 5,496m was lent for mortgages by Value or 458m per month
This shows a change of +14.1% from 12 months previously


Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 190,986 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -24.8%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 190,986 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +27.1%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 190,986 vs Q4 2015 172,188. Annual increase +10.9%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 239,571 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –15.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 239,571 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +21.1%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 239,571 vs Q4 2015 217,710. Annual increase +10.0%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 123,720 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -62.3%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 123,720 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +21.8%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 115,288 vs Q4 2015 120,872. Annual increase +7.3%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 224,207 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -16.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 224,207 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +64.6%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 224,207 vs Q3 2015 210,394. Annual increase 6.6%


Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I've included 50% of each quarter's Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as "a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release."

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 9:31 am 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 4816
Analysis of the Q1 2017 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/ ... -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q2 2016: 6,314
Q3 2016: 7,593
Q4 2016: 8,423
Q1 2017: 6,484 (3,295 FTB +2,245 Mover + 313 RIL + 644*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q1 2017 6,484
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2017 is - 82.5% lower than Peak and +236.8% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 there were 25,219 mortgages by Volume or 2,102 per month
In Q2 2016 to Q1 2017 there were 28,813 mortgages by Volume or 2,401 per month
This shows a change of +14.2% from 12 months previously


Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q2 2016: 1,255m
Q3 2016: 1,515m
Q4 2016: 1,750m
Q1 2017: 1,351m (639m FTB + 538m Mover + 40m RIL + 140m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q1 2017 1,351m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q1 2017 is -84.9% lower than Peak and +313.8% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 4,786m was lent for mortgage by Value or 399m per month
In Q2 2016 to Q1 2017 5,871m was lent for mortgages by Value or 489m per month
This shows a change of +22.7% from 12 months previously


b]Average Loan by Value €[/b]

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 194,052 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -22.9%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 194,052 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +29.1%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 194,052 vs Q1 2016 177,331. Annual increase +9.4%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 239,599 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –15.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 239,599 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +21.2%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 239,599 vs Q1 2016 225,014. Annual increase +6.5%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 128,754 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -60.7%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 128,754 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +26.7%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 128,754 vs Q1 2016 118,027. Annual increase +9.1%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 216,925 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -18.9%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 216,925 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +59.3%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 216,925 vs Q1 2016 197,857. Annual increase +9.6%


Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I've included 50% of each quarter's Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as "a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release."

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:12 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Feb 9, 2010
Posts: 9019
TheJackal wrote:
This shows Q1 2017 is -84.9% lower than Peak and +313.8% higher than Trough

For some reason, this stat jumped out at me as indicative of how crazy things got at the peak and how bad they got at the bottom.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 11:50 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jan 2, 2008
Posts: 1498
Let's take the lending figures against the volume of transactions as per Propertypriceregister to indicate the cash purchases.

Q2 2016: 6,314 - 11553 transactions - 2.73bln total - 54.5/45.5 mort/cash
Q3 2016: 7,593 - 12866 transactions - 3.19bln total - 59.1/40.9 mort/cash
Q4 2016: 8,423 - 13304 transactions - 3.39bln total - 63.3/36.6 mort/cash

Swing from 45/55 mort/cash in 2013/14:


ixus wrote:
Quote:
Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3, 2013 4,089
Q4, 2014 4,804
Q1, 2014 3,160
Q2, 2014 4,396 (2,440 FTB + 1,709 Mover + 188 RIL + 108*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 16,449


Total Transactions on ppr 36,259 (averaging 9K per Q) - Almost 20K (circa 55%) bought straight for cash.

.......
.



I still maintain they need to look at the CGT exemption. Bring it forward to the first & second year eligible now. We are building up to a lot of supply coming online in 2019 between the great land give away and CGT 7 year holders. There is no reward to government in holding on until 2019. Maybe, even offer to allow the 7 year holders liquidate now at 5/10% CGT.

_________________
“Never play chess with a pigeon.
The pigeon just knocks all the pieces over.
Then shits all over the board.
Then struts around like it won.”


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 518 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 31, 32, 33, 34, 35


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to: