lurking here anyways, but a long way from leaping yet

If the difference between Germany and Ireland was so stark there would barely be an export of a Merc, BMW, Audi or VW from Germany to Ireland. We all know that imports of such brands into Ireland are down in the last few years, but they haven't collapsed to a trickle where only a top surgeon in Ireland could afford to buy a German car.

People also refer to 'Germany' without highlighting the regional disparity in the country and how 10% unemployment has been quite routine in East Germany over the last 20 years, not just the last 5. Ireland has 14/15% unemployment and it is rightly seen as a very tight labour market. Living standards in large parts of East Germany are not that much greater than over the borders in Czech, Poland or Slovaka.

We are a lot more integregated into Europe at this stage than we were at any other point in history, as we know to our cost from the night of infamy 30/9/08.

I'm working off a very small sample size but what I am generally seeing is people seeking mortgages as they feel they have to move from renting to purchasing due to family formation, either planning, expecting or just had their first born. They're generally seeking the much vaunted 3 bed SCD home which remains in poor supply. So while conditions generally remain poor, lending standards increasingly stringent and numbers seeking mortgages generally low, they all seem to be looking for the same thing in the same place. I'm getting feedback of minor bidding wars and reasonably strong competition on these properties. On the other side, I've seen no one buy anything less than three beds since I've been involved in mortgage lending.

There are two labour markets in Ireland; the high-tech one and everything else.

High-tech/IT is suffering an acute skills shortage, we ( indigenous Irish commercial IT ) have 38 positions we cannot fill; everyone else in the market from Google,M$ and Apple on down has the same problem. This is well-known, though, but still I' surprised only 450 million mortgages written.

I thought it was normally the other way around? That rich nations with a high level of income equality imported fewer luxury German cars but basket cases with high levels of income inequality had a minority elite for whom a BMW/Audi/Merc is an integral part of their conspicuous consumption. I know the anecdote about Porsche Cayannes in Greece was proved to be inaccurate but I also know that you see many more BMWs, Audis and Mercs on the roads in Ukraine and Russia than you do in Sweden or Finland despite the economic indicators of the latter two countries being far superior.

Some brief analysis of these mortgage numbers.



This shows the proportion of mortgages classified by mortgage type over the interval. The proportion of mortgages for actual property purchases has increased over time as the re-mortgage and top proportion dropped.

The top-up proportion ran at around or over 30% for most of the interval. 45,388 million of the 146,578 million of mortgages over the interval was for top-up mortgages. A large portion of this “wealth” was probably destroyed or squandered.



This shows the number of mortgages classified by mortgage type.



This shows the number of mortgages for actual property purchases and those relating to “equity” release or re-mortgage of the same property.



This shows the value of mortgages for actual property purchases and those relating to “equity” release or re-mortgage of the same property.

These are not pretty figures.

Great work jxbr. I don't think we could ever see another quarter as bad as Q1 2012. It can only increase from here, right??

Great work from me too jxbr.

One thing worth noting about the overhang of building is:
Overhang = units built - cash sales - (FTB+RIL-mover purchase)

If we look at 2006, there were, what 90k builds? About 40k FTB, about 48k mover purchase and about 28k RIL. With about 220k mortgages in total comprising 95% of the sales, the remaining 5% can only be 11k

So
90 - 11 -(40+28-48) = 59k overbuilt in 2006...

(Assuming I have the sums right ).

There is a seasonal element to mortgage lending. Q1 is always the lowest. So Q2 2012 should be higher. How much higher? I do not know.

In 2011 the rise between quarters was 8.15%. In 2010 the rise between quarters was 6.97%. In 2009 the rise between quarters was 8.76%.

However, Q1 2012 is spectacularly low.

The following chart shows the lending volumes sorted by Year and Quarter.



The following chart shows the lending amounts sorted by Year and Quarter.



However, this information does not represent the full picture. The IBF figures do not include lending from banks outside the IBF such as KBC. Traditionally, banks like KBC represented a small proportion of a very large volume of lending. This may have changed. KBC and others may now be responsible for a larger proportion of lending that does not appear in these numbers. It could well be that KBC and other non-IBF lenders are cherry-picking the market and selecting low-risk professional types to whom to lend.

This is just one more example of a lack of complete information that is actually readily available should that smug arrogant cunt Shatter ever decide to take his finger from his uptight arse and start publishing actual sales data.

With so little hard data available, any number of different inferences can be drawn from this sparse set of information.

The following is a representation of the current data sets available and where they fit into a complete set of price data.



Finally it is somewhat interesting that the Sunday (and even Saturday) papers make no reference to the collapse in lending while still passing the trays of Kool Aid on the recovery of the property market.

You are not doing yourself any favours either.

Why is it OK for Germans on low incomes to pay more tax than their Irish equivalents?

Is it because people on low incomes in Germany do not have mortgages, they rent . They understand that they do not earn enough to own their own homes.

In addition to the normal taxes there is mandatory health insurance (8% I think) in Germany.

One thing I failed to mention in my previous post was that income tax rates on people who earn more than €40k are lower in Germany.

Nice work jxbr. In related news I did a detailed search on the House price database release timeframe and there is no update since the "September" mention.

Not really sure of your own, i.e. your own companies particular circumstances, but having been working for a multi-national US based IT company for 12 years all I saw was Irish management pushing the line of low wages, actually a policy of below average wages with bonuses paid for meeting targets.

Pay was generally poor, promotion was by politics and connection as was the way per the mainly Irish management and that's how it was done. The company delivered the essential results but during the IT expansion in the late 90s decided not to go with the market and increase pay rates and nearly 30% of the engineers resigned that year. Yes nearly 30%.

If you pay enough you'll get the people you need. Even if that means importing them.

But I don't accept the simple lines that I hear from managers about can't get good IT people. Good IT people have either left for another country, another job or another idea.

No hope with Irish management being in charge of pay levels when the managers are out of touch with living costs.

Excellent work, Jxbr.

As usual.

Excellent work and graphics jxbr
Mortgage lending looks like an exponential decline
Id expect an uptick in Q2 as banks plan to lend a similar amount in 2012 compared to 2011

That is truly disgusting. Top up mortgages in the boom were more common than either first time or mover mortgages.

They borrowed money for consumption, on a house they had yet to pay for. This is inherently unsustainable. So how many of these people are now whinging about having to adjust their lifestyles and strategically defaulting?