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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 9:24 am 
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Some Eurofudge, starring Noonan and his mates, released some Greece cash last night. Meanwhile 2 months ago.

https://wikileaks.org/imf-internal-20160319/

Quote:
by Julian Assange
Today, 2nd April 2016, WikiLeaks publishes the records of a 19 March 2016 teleconference between the top two IMF officials in charge of managing the Greek debt crisis - Poul Thomsen, the head of the IMF's European Department, and Delia Velkouleskou, the IMF Mission Chief for Greece. The IMF anticipates a possible Greek default co-inciding with the United Kingdom's referendum on whether it should leave the European Union ('Brexit').

"This is going to be a disaster" remarks Velkouleskou in the meeting.


So while they parked it for a month last night...the IMF reckons it will all kick off again in July. After that conference call Greece reported a 0.4% GDP decline in Q1 2016 so the IMF looks more likely to be entirely right at present.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:56 pm 
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The situation in Greece is still awful - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/06/29/2 ... pic-scale/

Image

Image

-6% annual savings rate, no investment. It looks like the Greeks literally are burning the furniture to stay warm.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:52 am 
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Greek GDP contraction in H1 was worse than thought - -> http://www.ekathimerini.com/211579/arti ... an-thought

Quote:
he contraction of the Greek economy in the first half of the year has turned out to be greater than originally estimated. The revised data released on Monday by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) recorded a bigger drop in gross domestic product on an annual basis, which will make it even more difficult for the government to meet the fiscal targets set for this year.

Using previously unavailable data, ELSTAT has now calculated that first quarter GDP declined by 1 percent and not 0.8 percent year-on-year, while in the April-June period it fell by 0.9 percent and not 0.7 percent as originally thought. That was the fourth consecutive quarter with a GDP contraction.

there is more



A year after the crisis was declared over, Greece is still spiralling down - -> https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... lared-over


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:59 pm 
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In case anyone missed it with all the U.S election posts
Our Friend Tsipras has taken a knife to his Hard Left Ministers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ministers/


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:50 pm 
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Quote:
Greece three weeks away from 'explosive' debt problems, says IMF

Greece’s embattled government has three weeks to break the deadlock in increasingly difficult talks with creditors or risk the country’s debt crisis resurfacing with renewed vigour.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... b-gdnworld

Here we go again.

Why doesn't Greece just default on its debt, leave the euro zone and bring back their own currency?

Ok, I'm not saying that would be an easy thing to do but at least it would be better than the current situation, no?

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:27 pm 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Quote:
Greece three weeks away from 'explosive' debt problems, says IMF

Greece’s embattled government has three weeks to break the deadlock in increasingly difficult talks with creditors or risk the country’s debt crisis resurfacing with renewed vigour.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... b-gdnworld

Here we go again.

Why doesn't Greece just default on its debt, leave the euro zone and bring back their own currency?

Ok, I'm not saying that would be an easy thing to do but at least it would be better than the current situation, no?

The Germans won't let them?


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:31 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Quote:
Greece three weeks away from 'explosive' debt problems, says IMF

Greece’s embattled government has three weeks to break the deadlock in increasingly difficult talks with creditors or risk the country’s debt crisis resurfacing with renewed vigour.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... b-gdnworld

Here we go again.

Why doesn't Greece just default on its debt, leave the euro zone and bring back their own currency?

Ok, I'm not saying that would be an easy thing to do but at least it would be better than the current situation, no?

The Germans won't let them?



But how could the Germans stop them?

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:37 pm 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
Why doesn't Greece just default on its debt, leave the euro zone and bring back their own currency?

Ok, I'm not saying that would be an easy thing to do but at least it would be better than the current situation, no?

How would exiting the euro help?

Their debt servicing costs are very low and yet they still have cashflow problems.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:27 pm 
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Just to the north of Greece is a country called Bulgaria.

It has many of the same problems with corruption, nepotism and low productivity that Greece has.

It has its own currency (the lev) which has been pegged to the euro for nearly 20 years. In effect, what this mean is that the central bank keeps large chunks of foreign currency on hand to maintain the value of its currency if it comes under pressure. It has very low public debt and a balanced budget. This has been achieved by keeping public spending down. Public wages and pensions are very low.

Greece - with euro membership - has not had to keep large currency reserves on hand. They were spent in the good years. Not only that, but it ran large, consistent public deficits in the good years (prior to 2008) with precious little to show for it. Public wages and pensions got far out of whack with what the productive capacity of the economy could sustain.

Forget about the debt - much of which has been written off or put on the never never. The Greek political system has to get round to accepting that public services have to be structurally lower, and taxes higher, as that is all that the economy can sustain.

This is something that has to happen no matter whether Greece uses drachmas, euros, or indeed shells you'd collect on the beach.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:22 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Just to the north of Greece is a country called Bulgaria.

It has many of the same problems with corruption, nepotism and low productivity that Greece has.

It has its own currency (the lev) which has been pegged to the euro for nearly 20 years. In effect, what this mean is that the central bank keeps large chunks of foreign currency on hand to maintain the value of its currency if it comes under pressure. It has very low public debt and a balanced budget. This has been achieved by keeping public spending down. Public wages and pensions are very low.

Greece - with euro membership - has not had to keep large currency reserves on hand. They were spent in the good years. Not only that, but it ran large, consistent public deficits in the good years (prior to 2008) with precious little to show for it. Public wages and pensions got far out of whack with what the productive capacity of the economy could sustain.

Forget about the debt - much of which has been written off or put on the never never. The Greek political system has to get round to accepting that public services have to be structurally lower, and taxes higher, as that is all that the economy can sustain.

This is something that has to happen no matter whether Greece uses drachmas, euros, or indeed shells you'd collect on the beach.

The problem, though, is how you stop a debt write off now being just another ten or twenty years of spend on the credit card for the Greek economy?

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:25 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
The problem, though, is how you stop a debt write off now being just another ten or twenty years of spend on the credit card for the Greek economy?


It is not widely known but the interest payments on the official debt are essentially parked for a few years.

Even if they weren't, Greece's debt interest payments would be no greater than Italy's, which are high but manageable.

Debt or no debt, Greece needs to run a primary balance (revenue less expenditure before interest payments).

This is finally happening by the way, a full 7 years after the adjustment started.

The problem is poor public financial management, an unproductive business sector and an electorate with unrealistic expectations.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:57 am 
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What a sovereign default would look like on the ECB’s balance sheet - -> http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/11/s ... nce-sheet/

Quote:
Central banks’ QE programmes have exposed them to sovereign defaults in an unprecedented way. However, the most likely candidate in Europe is likely to do little damage.

Given the centrality that central banks’ intervention in financial markets and in light of the ongoing demands by the IMF that Greece’s Euro-zone creditors accept a debt haircut as the price of returning the country to debt sustainability, it seems pertinent to consider what such an event would look like.

Starting from the case of Greece, and ignoring whether debt relief is really necessary or not, two partial Greek default scenarios are used to illustrate the effect that such an event would have on the ECB. The resulting containment of such a shock is the result of Greece’s relatively small scale as well as the nature of modern fiat currency monetary systems, which endow central banks with flexibility not available to their predecessors as recently as the first half of the 20th century.

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IMF says Greece debt 'explosive' in long term - -> https://www.yahoo.com/news/imf-says-gre ... 52475.html

Greece's best-selling daily to cease publication due to debts - -> https://www.yahoo.com/news/greeces-best ... 05780.html


Creditors turn up pressure, demand legislation of reforms - -> http://www.ekathimerini.com/215645/arti ... of-reforms

Quote:
Eurozone finance ministers turned the heat up on Athens on Thursday, demanding that it legislates measures now for the period after 2018, when the country’s bailout ends, dashing the government’s hopes of a swift conclusion to the second review of its third bailout.

The Eurogroup in Brussels, which the government hoped would pave the way for the return to Athens of the representatives of the country’s quartet of creditors to continue talks, was held just two days after the emphatic refusal by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to enact any further measures now.

Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said the demands by the International Monetary Fund went “well beyond the European framework of democracy.”

there is more




Half of families in Greece live on pensions - -> http://www.ekathimerini.com/215576/arti ... n-pensions

Quote:
Greek society is evolving into a sum of households surviving on pensions while its most dynamic section, young people aged between 18 and 35, are abandoning it or considering abandoning it to seek a better life abroad, a survey by the Small Enterprises Institute of the Hellenic Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen and Merchants (IME GSEVEE) has concluded.

The report published on Tuesday suggests that the long-term financial crisis, whose main victims are the middle class, is not only leading to a further decline in incomes and the broadening of inequalities, but also openly threatening social cohesion. The so-called therapy, with its constantly increasing direct and indirect taxes, may lead to primary budget surpluses but this is not returned to taxpayers in the form of public services, as at the same time public spending on health and education is also being reduced.

there is more



A New Deal to Save Europe - Yanis Varoufakis -> https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... is-2017-01

Quote:
LONDON – “I don’t care about what it will cost. We took our country back!” This is the proud message heard throughout England since the Brexit referendum last June. And it is a demand that is resonating across the continent. Until recently, any proposal to “save” Europe was regarded sympathetically, albeit with skepticism about its feasibility. Today, the skepticism is about whether Europe is worth saving.

The European idea is being driven into retreat by the combined force of a denial, an insurgency, and a fallacy. The EU establishment’s denial that the Union’s economic architecture was never designed to sustain the banking crisis of 2008 has resulted in deflationary forces that delegitimize the European project. The predictable reaction to deflation has been the insurgency of anti-European parties across the continent. And, most worrying of all, the establishment has responded with the fallacy that “federation-lite” can stem the nationalist tide.
The Year Ahead 2017 Cover Image

It can’t. In the wake of the euro crisis, Europeans shudder at the thought of giving the EU more power over their lives and communities. A eurozone political union, with a small federal budget and some mutualization of gains, losses, and debt, would have been useful in 1999, when the common currency was born. But now, under the weight of massive banking losses and legacy debts caused by the euro’s faulty architecture, federation-lite (as proposed by French presidential hopeful Emmanuel Macron) is too little too late. It would become the permanent Austerity Union that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has sought for years. There could be no better gift to today’s “Nationalist International.”

there is more


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