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 Post subject: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2010 11:50 am 
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From the IT:

Quote:
The markets are deluding themselves when they think at a certain point the other member states will put their hands on their wallets to save Greece," Mr Stark said in an interview with Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore.


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre ... king17.htm


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2010 11:53 am 
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Is Greece getting any of the ECB love we are getting now?

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2010 12:27 pm 
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whizzbang wrote:
Is Greece getting any of the ECB love we are getting now?



Probably not, but remember, Greece does not have the low corporation tax offshore haven status that we do, so be clear about one thing: the ECB love is HIGHLY conditional and you can be sure it involves total tax harmonisation with (especially) Germany within a few years, and what's THAT going to do to any prospects for recovery here??
The outlook just gets bleaker and bleaker. :shock:


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:45 pm 
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Greece orders 20% tax hike on alcohol/tobacco


Quote:
The Greek government today announced an immediate 20% increase in tobacco and alcohol taxes as it fended off EU pressure for drastic action to fix the crippling budget deficit.
It is believed that experts from the European Commission and European Central Bank had demanded to know 'in detail, when and how' the necessary measures would be taken during talks with Greek leaders before leaving today.
The minister acknowledged that the EU pressure was difficult for the government to accept. The EU experts are believed to have demanded that Greece put the emphasis on balancing the budget by 2012 and making the economy more competitive. Greece will have to endure monthly visits by EU officials from February as part of the tighter surveillance ordered by the country's European partners.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0108/greece.html

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 4:37 pm 
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IMF to Send Team to Greece Tomorrow on Request of Authorities

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... XTiI&pos=6

Quote:
“On request of the Greek authorities, a staff team from the International Monetary Fund will visit Athens starting Jan. 12 for about a week to explore possibilities for technical assistance from the IMF in the coming months on pension reform, tax policy, tax administration and budget management,” a spokeswoman for the Washington-based lender said in an e-mailed statement today.

The mission is “within the context of the regular surveillance that the IMF provides to its membership,” according to the statement.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:22 pm 
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Moody’s say Portugal’s rating threatened:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6 ... arketsNews

Quote:
"If Portugal wants to avoid a downgrade, it is going to have to take meaningful, credible steps to get the deficit under control," Anthony Thomas, a senior sovereign risk analyst with Moody's was reported as saying


Quote:
Portugal's budget deficit is expected to have reached 8 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, up from just 2.8 percent in 2008.
Prime Minister Jose Socrates has said he won't raise taxes and his government has not proposed any specific budget cuts.


At this rate Ireland is starting to look like a model of fiscal responsibility.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:24 pm 
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jabaar wrote:
IMF to Send Team to Greece Tomorrow on Request of Authorities



So much for the myth, frequently propagated, that the ECB and the EU would not allow the IMF to get involved in a Eurozone country.

So much for those who think that if we suck up enough to the EU, Ireland will be protected from IMF involvement.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:37 pm 
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There was an interview with some city of London type on 6 one news who also cited Ireland as an example for the rest of the deficit-bedevilled nations of the Eurozone, including the UK.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:47 pm 
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Septic Crank wrote:
jabaar wrote:
IMF to Send Team to Greece Tomorrow on Request of Authorities



So much for the myth, frequently propagated, that the ECB and the EU would not allow the IMF to get involved in a Eurozone country.

So much for those who think that if we suck up enough to the EU, Ireland will be protected from IMF involvement.

On point 2, not really.

The circumstances in which the IMF would be called in were set out clearly enough:
Unable to balance your books?
Unwilling to be politically unpopular?
Need a scapegoat for your ills? (Both now and at the next election).
If so, you could need the IMF-Team!

The point is made by HCMh:
"At this rate Ireland is starting to look like a model of fiscal responsibility."
look like is the key phrase.

And from the RTE piece that Gatelodge posted the link to:
"Greece will have to endure monthly visits by EU officials from February as part of the tighter surveillance ordered by the country's European partners."

Now, why would RTE be talking about this? A sudden concern for macro-stability in the eurozone? Or "look, look at what the bad boy over there is doing, he's not just picking his nose, he's eating it too"?

"Socrates has said he won't raise taxes and his government has not proposed any specific budget cuts."
He should have stuck to being the hard-man for Brazil...

You will not need a bailout if you can raise money on the bond markets. You will raise money on the bond markets if you appear credible. You don't actually have to be credible, but you do have to appear it. If the ECB is inspecting you every month, you are not credible. If you do not at least appear worried about your deficit, you are not credible.

Incredible as it may seem, the current Minister for Finance has credibility! (As, to be fair, do the social partners, the employers and the rest of the usual suspects, up to and including the population at large).

Without NAMA and the bank recapitalisations, we'd be laughing...

Drat. I was doing so well with the optimism thing...

edit: crossed with PtG who makes a point in one sentence that took me a page. *shakes fist at framed cert on wall* Damn you arts degree!

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 9:34 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Septic Crank wrote:
jabaar wrote:
IMF to Send Team to Greece Tomorrow on Request of Authorities



So much for the myth, frequently propagated, that the ECB and the EU would not allow the IMF to get involved in a Eurozone country.

So much for those who think that if we suck up enough to the EU, Ireland will be protected from IMF involvement.

On point 2, not really.

The circumstances in which the IMF would be called in were set out clearly enough:
Unable to balance your books?
Unwilling to be politically unpopular?
Need a scapegoat for your ills? (Both now and at the next election).
If so, you could need the IMF-Team!

The point is made by HCMh:
"At this rate Ireland is starting to look like a model of fiscal responsibility."
look like is the key phrase.

And from the RTE piece that Gatelodge posted the link to:
"Greece will have to endure monthly visits by EU officials from February as part of the tighter surveillance ordered by the country's European partners."

Now, why would RTE be talking about this? A sudden concern for macro-stability in the eurozone? Or "look, look at what the bad boy over there is doing, he's not just picking his nose, he's eating it too"?

"Socrates has said he won't raise taxes and his government has not proposed any specific budget cuts."
He should have stuck to being the hard-man for Brazil...

You will not need a bailout if you can raise money on the bond markets. You will raise money on the bond markets if you appear credible. You don't actually have to be credible, but you do have to appear it. If the ECB is inspecting you every month, you are not credible. If you do not at least appear worried about your deficit, you are not credible.

Incredible as it may seem, the current Minister for Finance has credibility! (As, to be fair, do the social partners, the employers and the rest of the usual suspects, up to and including the population at large).

Without NAMA and the bank recapitalisations, we'd be laughing...

Drat. I was doing so well with the optimism thing...

edit: crossed with PtG who makes a point in one sentence that took me a page. *shakes fist at framed cert on wall* Damn you arts degree!


As a fellow BA recipient, I take umbrage at your devaluing of beautifully and excessively flowery prose... :wink:

The problem with all this economic excellence is that, based on the power of TV, coupled with the Irish tendency to value praise which emanates from anywhere beyond the shores of the emerald island above all else on Gods green earth, we could see FF returned with a landslide victory sometime soon :shock:

Many many stranger things have happened...

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:26 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Septic Crank wrote:
jabaar wrote:
IMF to Send Team to Greece Tomorrow on Request of Authorities



So much for the myth, frequently propagated, that the ECB and the EU would not allow the IMF to get involved in a Eurozone country.

So much for those who think that if we suck up enough to the EU, Ireland will be protected from IMF involvement.

On point 2, not really.

The circumstances in which the IMF would be called in were set out clearly enough:
Unable to balance your books?
Unwilling to be politically unpopular?
Need a scapegoat for your ills? (Both now and at the next election).
If so, you could need the IMF-Team!



Now that the main Eurozone castle walls have been breached by the IMF hordes, the staunch defenders retreat to the "Ireland is Different" Keep.

It's only a matter of time. When our efforts to raise finance run into trouble, as they inevitably and eventually will, we too will invite the IMF in.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:42 pm 
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Septic Crank wrote:
Now that the main Eurozone castle walls have been breached by the IMF hordes, the staunch defenders retreat to the "Ireland is Different" Keep.

I really, really doubt that you can find much to tag me with that...

Quote:
It's only a matter of time. When our efforts to raise finance run into trouble, as they inevitably and eventually will, we too will invite the IMF in.

Absolutely. I still retain that position, or at least one that says there'll be an intervention...

And what do we know from the Asian crisis? And the South American debt crisis?

The IMF fucks up the first serious job it has in each region. It's really, really, important not to be first. They don't do a great job on the second either, so the lower down the list you can be, the more accepting everyone is of what happens.

It may be that Iceland were the first, certainly forcing Iceland to accept Icesave liabilities without the legal process completing was a bit cack-handed. But my guess is the proper riots will be somewhere else. I'd rather that somewhere else wasn't here, thank you very much. Having to call in the IMF will be enough of a damnation of the FF/PD/Green government of the last 13 years.

And if it is not the IMF, because they cock it up so badly in Greece (or more specifically, because the Greek government cock it up so badly because they can't cut where they should) it'll be someone else. I accept that I think it will be someone else. The Germans will have flip-flopped back to the position that we can't have Americans coming in telling us what to do (egged on by the French). Personally, I don't care who it is and I don't think it really matters, except to the prestige of the ego countries.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:55 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
The IMF fucks up the first serious job it has in each region. It's really, really, important not to be first. They don't do a great job on the second either, so the lower down the list you can be, the more accepting everyone is of what happens.



I think Latvia was the first EU country to welcome the IMF. Or perhaps Hungary, I can't recall. So Greece will be third or fourth. And we'll keep our bullshit charade up for a while longer. Cut a bit more in 2010. Keep the positive headlines.

But at some point the IMF will arrive here. When they run their sliderules over our public sector compensation, the number and functions of our Quangos, our State and public sector pensions, the cosy semi-state pseudo-monopolies. Oh boy! Even a Leaving Cert economics student couldn't fuck this one up.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:00 pm 
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Septic Crank wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
The IMF fucks up the first serious job it has in each region. It's really, really, important not to be first. They don't do a great job on the second either, so the lower down the list you can be, the more accepting everyone is of what happens.



I think Latvia was the first EU country to welcome the IMF. Or perhaps Hungary, I can't recall. So Greece will be third or fourth. And we'll keep our bullshit charade up for a while longer. Cut a bit more in 2010. Keep the positive headlines.

But at some point the IMF will arrive here. When they run their sliderules over our public sector compensation, the number and functions of our Quangos, our State and public sector pensions, the cosy semi-state pseudo-monopolies. Oh boy! Even a Leaving Cert economics student couldn't fuck this one up.

I wish. And more so rich people who are defaulting on loans in NAMA - what a juicy source of immediate income.

But that's not how it works.

The IMF will say the numbers. The government will decide how the cuts are to be made.

Expect:
Pension reduced.
Retirement age increased.
University fees.
Cuts in SW.
Hospitals closed.
No reduction is HSE administration.

ESB sold.
Bord Gais sold.
Coillte (7% of land surface of the country) sold.
Fibre rings and links sold.

It just isn't going to happen that the beast will chew off its third leg...

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:03 pm 
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Oh yeah, and Mrs. YM wants to know when they'll be finished in Greece and can they get a direct flight here...

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