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 Post subject: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 10:19 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Seems to be a whole bunch of findings in this new report, about which I know nothing more than is reported in this story.

Quote:
Developers built about 170,000 more homes than were needed during the property bubble, academics claimed today.

The latest study on empty housing has found a total of 345,000 homes – 17% of all housing – are lying vacant.

The expert review found that when holiday homes, houses no longer in use and standard levels of surplus housing were measured, there was still no demand for about half the country’s empty homes.

University College Dublin and Dublin Institute of Technology also warned the State bad-bank Nama – designed to ease the banking crisis and ultimately reignite lending and the property market – could prolong the slump.

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/deve ... z0hFEuUoO2


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 11:08 pm 
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Great to see this kind of information coming out from respected sources and, one expects, with sufficient data to support the findings. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get aired in the broadcast media and how it will be presented.

Quote:
Dr Williams, of UCD’s School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, said buyers and sellers may be resisting further price cuts as the market deteriorates further.


This bit confused me though - BUYERS resisting price cuts??

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 11:11 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Full report will be available hereat 10am tomorrow

I wonder what methodology they have used.


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 12:14 am 
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Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Full report will be available hereat 10am tomorrow

I wonder what methodology they have used.


Google?

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 1:59 am 
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I think that this is the first mainstream media articles that implies that one of NAMAs objectives might be to to prevent downward price corrections by keeping vacant properties off the market.


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 2:04 am 
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jabaar wrote:
Great to see this kind of information coming out from respected sources and, one expects, with sufficient data to support the findings. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get aired in the broadcast media and how it will be presented.

Quote:
Dr Williams, of UCD’s School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, said buyers and sellers may be resisting further price cuts as the market deteriorates further.


This bit confused me though - BUYERS resisting price cuts??

Well, you might wamt to tell your friends how much you paid :x


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 4:40 am 
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jabaar wrote:
Great to see this kind of information coming out from respected sources and, one expects, with sufficient data to support the findings. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get aired in the broadcast media and how it will be presented.

Quote:
Dr Williams, of UCD’s School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, said buyers and sellers may be resisting further price cuts as the market deteriorates further.


This bit confused me though - BUYERS resisting price cuts??

Damages credibility a bit, I would say.


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 8:03 am 
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I've decided to tune into RTE now and this is the top item on Morning Ireland... oversupply and prices to fall.

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:02 am 
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I for one am pretty confident that we will find out nothing new. How long have we known that number around here ????? Since 2008 , 2007 even ?????

Now academia is taking an interest 2 years later, whoooop de feckin do lads have the 'consultant' gigs dried up or something ????

Yo!!! Academia.

" It's the empties stoopid "

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 am 
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jabaar wrote:
Great to see this kind of information coming out from respected sources and, one expects, with sufficient data to support the findings.


Feck off Jabaar :D

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:23 am 
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345,000 vacant housing units nationwide
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0305/housing.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ire ... 31515.html

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:27 am 
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jabaar wrote:
This bit confused me though - BUYERS resisting price cuts??

You'd better believe it. Even more so than sellers, the majority of buyers, particularly the FTB segment, have still not being able to properly deprogramme themselves of bubble propaganda. They think the fall in house prices is an anomaly (of course, one that might be taken advantage of). Ask yourself - if the banks tomorrow let it be known that they would be giving out loans of seven times multiple of salary for mortgages to all and sundry, what would be the response of a significant majority of buyers?


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:59 am 
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2Pack wrote:
I for one am pretty confident that we will find out nothing new. How long have we known that number around here ????? Since 2008 , 2007 even ?????

Now academia is taking an interest 2 years later, whoooop de feckin do lads have the 'consultant' gigs dried up or something ????

Yo!!! Academia.

" It's the empties stoopid "

2pack - while the pin may have assumed or felt or had a gut good feeling that this was the case, dont you think that some , yknow, evidence, is useful to back that up? Or do you think anecdote and rumour, no matter how right post pacto, trump a decent solid attempt to uncover the facts in a rigorous manner?


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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:04 am 
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bodyofevidence wrote:
2Pack wrote:
I for one am pretty confident that we will find out nothing new. How long have we known that number around here ????? Since 2008 , 2007 even ?????

Now academia is taking an interest 2 years later, whoooop de feckin do lads have the 'consultant' gigs dried up or something ????

Yo!!! Academia.

" It's the empties stoopid "

2pack - while the pin may have assumed or felt or had a gut good feeling that this was the case, dont you think that some , yknow, evidence, is useful to back that up? Or do you think anecdote and rumour, no matter how right post pacto, trump a decent solid attempt to uncover the facts in a rigorous manner?

Tut, tut, BoE.

Unless you are telling us that the reports authors jogged to every house in the country and checked its use, the evidence has been available for a long time (basically since the census).

Method 1: Census + ESB connections + household formation rate - obsolescence
Method 2: Census + CSO completions figures + CSO vacancy rate of new houses - obsolescence

Both these methods come up with roughly the same figure excluding holiday homes of 290-320k

Now, do tell what fabulous piece of new evidence has the study uncovered?

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 Post subject: Re: UCD/DIT report: Overbuilding, empties and NAMA
PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:05 am 
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bodyofevidence wrote:
2Pack wrote:
I for one am pretty confident that we will find out nothing new. How long have we known that number around here ????? Since 2008 , 2007 even ?????

Now academia is taking an interest 2 years later, whoooop de feckin do lads have the 'consultant' gigs dried up or something ????

Yo!!! Academia.

" It's the empties stoopid "

2pack - while the pin may have assumed or felt or had a gut good feeling that this was the case, dont you think that some , yknow, evidence, is useful to back that up? Or do you think anecdote and rumour, no matter how right post pacto, trump a decent solid attempt to uncover the facts in a rigorous manner?


CSO started it. ESB connections more or less confirmed it.

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