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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Sun May 02, 2010 12:21 am
Optimism 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Excitement 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Anxiety 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Denial 19%  19%  [ 25 ]
Fear 36%  36%  [ 47 ]
Desperation 25%  25%  [ 33 ]
Panic 9%  9%  [ 12 ]
Capitulation 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Despondency 3%  3%  [ 4 ]
Depression 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Hope 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Relief 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 131
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 Post subject: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:21 am 
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Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:36 am 
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On the eternal topic of "Bottoms" Eddie Hobbs was on Eamon Keane today.

Eddie never called a bottom, he called the structure of a bottom. He never insulted Morgan Kelly either. This is good.

He only said that the bottom would be close or at hand when "capitulation" was with us. Eddie carefully said that bottom was 6-8 years after the top.....which was 3-4 years ago as we know and would correspond to "capitulation". This is wrong but is closer to reality than ...say... Marian Finnegan.

Sadly Eddie never mentioned "Despondency" and needs to be taken up on it if anyone is out for pints with him.

Don't you ever mess with Hyman Minsky Eddie....and the invoice is on its way.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:25 am 
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I think somewhere between desperation & panic

Daftwatch seems to suggest this too......

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Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:31 am 
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I think overall people and banks have accepted that prices have fallen and will continue to fall, there is very little denial.
Those who keep their asking prices at 2006 or close levels, on the whole either can't afford or psychologically refuse to take a loss, that's why there is a withdrawal of properties for sale on Daftwatch. A combination of death, debt, mortgage interest rates, taxation, unemployment and better opportunities elsewhere will eventually move them on. I think they see inflation as the solution to their problems (at least in nominal terms), however, while they continue to keep the existing debt structure in place, then any such attempts to re-flate are doomed to failure as most extra money supply goes to paying down existing debt, or paying yet more interest on the roll-over debt the government is taking on.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:37 am 
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The majority are finally exiting denial (after a three year stay) and entering fear.

However, a significant minority will never exit denial.

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"Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans."- R.H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926

"By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.- John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:50 am 
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Puck,

I agree with your comment...finally entering fear phase.....HOWEVER..........it is emotions we are talking about. The point for many people on this forum is whether/when/how might these phases translate into market pricing. As we have seen, the so-called market here is extremely slow to adjust.

Think what would have to happen here for us to reach "capitulation".......sovereign default scenario?


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:59 am 
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I think it's between fear and desperation (excluding the ostriches).


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:30 am 
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Absolutely the early stages of panic

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:36 am 
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I think its desperation as people wonder about their jobs and making mortgage payments, those who are in arrears pray for a "bailout" and small businesses continue to fail for lack of lending/cashflow. People know at this point FF are out of their depth and hiding crap all over the place so we're only a small step away from panic but it'll come soon enough as the market cycle seems to be moving now having been in limbo for quite a while due to a strong sense of denial.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 11:37 am 
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Puck may be Famous wrote:
The majority are finally exiting denial (after a three year stay) and entering fear.

However, a significant minority will never exit denial.


Still loads of denial out there...every day I hear people say things like "Yes, property has fallen recently BUT [insert wild-eyed theory here] means they'll be going back up by 2011, it's just a blip, hang in there for the long-term and I'll be quids in"

I honestly can't say we've left Denial until a clear majority finally accept that 2002-6 prices were abnormal, a bubble, something that will not be repeated for decades if ever. And that just isn't the case, I feel.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 11:55 am 
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I think panic/desperation myself.

As a non-homeowner, I'm probably ahead of the curve at the hope stage :D

I'm hopeful that the general market will finally collectively wake up to the reality.

When the market finally reaches despondency, I'll be thrilled (selfish I know), as it'll mean I can finally start shopping. 8DD

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The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:21 pm 
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There is no way we can be in the panic or desperation stages as long as there are no repos or firesales. They can only kick in at the end of the moratorium, which I think is early next year.

So we're still somewhere between denial and fear IMO.

And don't forget that if we are talking about averages, there are still people out there who are only approaching denial - 5 minutes looking at Boards.ie or even AAM will show you the level of ignorance out there. The effect of this will keep the aggregate national emotion more positive than it should be.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:28 pm 
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I still think denial / fear as most people simply haven't grasped the reality of whats going on and is coming down the pipeline.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:38 pm 
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Denial/Fear for everyone, I believe that we are going to be hit with the next phases in rapid succession rather than the drawn out saga that was denial. The guarantee only stalled the inevitable and the pressure has only increased. We'll hit panic when everyone realises that he government is shooting blanks and that we are been administered by elsewhere rather than government.
Dubhgeannain wrote:
When the market finally reaches despondency, I'll be thrilled (selfish I know), as it'll mean I can finally start shopping. 8DD

Be careful what you wish for, you might not want to live here when you see how things are in two years time. I'd prefer to be wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2010 9:10 am 
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Between denial and fear, still plenty of denial out there, reflected in bubble asking prices -people who don't have to sell and are looking for a bigger fool to pay 2007 prices. For those who've lost jobs, are in NE etc and are trying to sell at reduced (if not entirely realistic) prices I'd say the fear is very real.


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