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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:39 pm 
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satechi wrote:
satechi wrote:
As for the rest of your post the if there is a movement for a UN peacekeeping as a solution to the civil war, to keep peace in a ceasefire and provide aid
Who is going to veto it US or Russia? do tell us
Politically the US will not and can not veto it, they might at worst abstain along with China
Russia on the other hand are guaranteed to veto any motion for peace, they already done so today at the UN, clearly showing to the world that they do not want peace.


Like I said several pages back Russia has no intention allowing the UN to get involved and bring this clusterfuck to a peaceful resolution

http://www.france24.com/en/20161218-syr ... -observers



This is World War III. The capture of Aleppo is seen as a strategic objective to bringing the Syrian war to a close, the "rebels" made a determined push to take the city this year and failed, the Russians took out their logistics support and the Turks withdrew to concentrate on Al Bab. Almost immediately when the "rebels" lost Aleppo, the Western press was immediately filled with unattributed stories of mass killings. The Syrian government logically want to bring the military operations in Aleppo to a close ASAP and the sooner they do, people stop getting hurt and killed and can get on with the task of rebuilding their lives so drawing this out is not in the interest of the residents of Aleppo and neither is it in the interests of the Russians, however, if they can be kept tied up there for as long as possible it gives the "rebels" time to regroup and try again, if they have the fight left . . . The UN intervention should be seen in this light.

Current #StandWithAleppo propaganda campaign was launched by "strategic affairs consultant" Becky Carroll



FYI - Here is what Putin said a few days ago.

Putin calls full ceasefire ‘next step’ for normalization in Syria - -> https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pu ... ion-syria/

Quote:
A full ceasefire is the next step for normalizing the situation in Syria after the liberation of Aleppo, Russian President Vladimir Putin said after talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Friday.
"I hope very much that the Syrian army will gain a foothold after successful combat actions in Aleppo and civilians will be able to return to normal life. Several thousand people have already come back to their houses, although they are half-destroyed," Putin said.
"The next stage is reaching agreements on a full ceasefire in entire Syria," the Russian leader stressed.
"All that is happening in Palmyra is a result of uncoordinated actions between the so-called international coalition, the Syrian government and Russia. I have repeatedly said that we should unite efforts for effective fight against terrorists," Putin said.
Putin said on Friday he reached an agreement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during their phone conversation earlier this week to ask the conflicting parties in Syria to hold talks in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana.

there is more


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:35 am 
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BoyRacer wrote:
This is World War III.


Not its not. You, I and everyone else on this planet will notice world war 3 (shortly before dying horrible deaths) as that will be the last war fought for quite some time.

I can not believe you even attempted to justify blocking access to UN observers, what are you and the Russians worried about that even more human rights abuses and war crimes come to be highlighted? Worried that once UN gets involved it can be followed by peacekeepers from all around the world (including Ireland) and the war will have to be resolved?

Just daft.


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:35 pm 
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satechi wrote:
BoyRacer wrote:
This is World War III.


Not its not. You, I and everyone else on this planet will notice world war 3 (shortly before dying horrible deaths) as that will be the last war fought for quite some time.

I can not believe you even attempted to justify blocking access to UN observers, what are you and the Russians worried about that even more human rights abuses and war crimes come to be highlighted? Worried that once UN gets involved it can be followed by peacekeepers from all around the world (including Ireland) and the war will have to be resolved?

Just daft.


Its Cold War 2. As for WW3 you have not a clue what you are talking about. You remind me of the idiots back in the 1930's that claimed that one hour after the next war was declared all major cities would be flattened, their inhabitants reduces to cavemen, by waves of thousands of bombers.

Did not happen.

Eventually years later the cities were slowly destroyed and millions were killed in air raids but the war that actually unfolded bore little relationship to that predicted by the armageddonist before hand. It will be no different next time around.

We very nearly had a full blown hot war. It was very very close run thing. It would have been nothing like Threads or The Day After or Weltkrieg. It would have been a much much messier version of the Ukraine, with a tactical nuke detonation or two. If by accident it did go strategic exchange then given the exceptionally high failure rate of both delivery vehicles and payloads the probability of a partial or full detonation over Ireland is small but non trivial. Still small casualties. The real fun would start as Irelands complete and total unpreparedness regarding both civil defense and in fact any defense was laid bare. You would be more likely to slowly starve to death in Ireland after a full exchange than die of radiation or blast injuries. Ireland is by far the most unprepared country in Europe for any major crisis.

For the major players like UK, Russia and the US a strategic exchange would compress the losses of WW2 into a few days in the case of the UK, or in the case of the US and Russia , both their Civil Wars into a few days. The vast majority of the inhabitants of all players will survive any strategic exchange to help decide how to rearrange the very extensive post war rubble. Just like they did after the Civil Wars. Very nasty in both cases.

As for the UN. It only gets involved in small wars that have no strategic value. Mere ineffectual policemen. Syria is a full on proxy war by all the major players so UN has zero role. A bit like talking about sending traffic wardens to control an armed riot / turf war between competing crime gangs.

Russia/Iran have won the war in Syria. Syria was a Russian client state during the first Cold War. Time to recognize reality and leave it to the Russians. It might save a few hundred thousand more causalities.


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:44 pm 
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Article about recent interview given by one of Saddam Hussein's interrogators:
CIA Analyst Who Interrogated Saddam Hussein Just Blew the Lid Off the US ‘Official Story’


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:36 pm 
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Good Terrible post, jmc.


Last edited by Coles2 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:08 pm 
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jmc wrote:
Its Cold War 2. As for WW3 you have not a clue what you are talking about. You remind me of the idiots back in the 1930's that claimed that one hour after the next war was declared all major cities would be flattened, their inhabitants reduces to cavemen, by waves of thousands of bombers.

Is there any topic you won't spoof on, and throw around random insults about "idiots"?

Let's read the rest of this...
Quote:
Did not happen.

OK, so what did happen?

Quote:
Eventually years later the cities were slowly destroyed and millions were killed in air raids but the war that actually unfolded bore little relationship to that predicted by the armageddonist before hand.

Really?
Well to begin, I'm not even sure who the "idiots" you are referring to are, since you don't bother to identify the strawmen you're so happily squaring off against. You do seem to identify them as individuals who in the 1930s attempted to identify what would happen in a future war, which in fact took place in the 1940s.

Now, although I know you successfully predicted the 2004 P&L accounts for Amazon in 1989, to such a degree of accuracy they were in 2005 submitted to the SEC rather than the accounts slowly being prepared by the idiots in Amazon's accounts department, mostly the track record of prediction is rather poor as it's a difficult thing to do.

But I don't see this prediction being so bad:
  • Cities were destroyed
  • People were in some cases reduced to pretty "caveman-like" foraging and subsistence when their urban environments were destroyed or they were displaced
  • This happened in the next major war
What was wrong was the pace and totality of the destruction. However, by the end of the war we had demonstration of a technical leap that would make one-sortie destruction of an entire city possible, and also the advanced development of technologies (jet engines and rocketry) that would accelerate our ability to deliver destructive payloads to other lands.

Quote:
It will be no different next time around.

Even if your first point was sensible, this would still be a logical non-sequitur. And you've also left out who it is you're actually attacking for this "mistake". The previous poster? Some academic types? Journalists? Colonel Sanders?

It makes the most interesting reading, in a Möbius strip way, to imagine you're attacking yourself.

Quote:
We very nearly had a full blown hot war. It was very very close run thing.

You're very close to playing "the pronoun game" here..
Quote:
It would have been nothing like Threads or The Day After or Weltkrieg. It would have been a much much messier version of the Ukraine, with a tactical nuke detonation or two.

How big of a theatre are you talking about? If it's really "like Ukraine" then I wouldn't call it a world war. If it involves huge theatres of operations: Europe, Americas, Asia, etc., then I agree tactical nukes would have found application, but unless it bedded into stale-mate very quickly I don't think a strategic escalation by either side would have been unlikely (probably most likely by the side feeling they were being pushed back on their heels and trying to arrest the slide).

Quote:
If by accident it did go strategic exchange then given the exceptionally high failure rate of both delivery vehicles and payloads the probability of a partial or full detonation over Ireland is small but non trivial. Still small casualties.

What are you basing this on? Official doctrine did incorporate ideas of steady escalation, but there were respectable critics of that thinking who doubted the ability of both sides to sustain that approach and maintain decision making and chain of command. There would be serious risk of a major escalation in that setting.

It would be good to give a reference for your failure rate claim. However, the overkill was substantial at the peak of the cold war, so there would be significant nuclear explosions and damage.
Also, Ireland's risk wouldn't be only from a stray bomb/missile. Ireland was on targeting lists, because of housing assets that could be used to the benefit of belligerents (in particular air-strips, but fuel reserves, ports and food would all have been relevant). Shannon and Bantry mentioned in this discussion as Soviet targets:
http://www.politicalworld.org/archive/i ... 10693.html
(you're not by any chance the jmcc in that thread?)

Quote:
The real fun would start as Irelands complete and total unpreparedness regarding both civil defense and in fact any defense was laid bare. You would be more likely to slowly starve to death in Ireland after a full exchange than die of radiation or blast injuries.

Sort of like in Threads you mean?

Quote:
Ireland is by far the most unprepared country in Europe for any major crisis.

wow, such unqualified claim!
"most unprepared"
"by far"
what units do you measure that in?

Quote:
As for the UN. It only gets involved in small wars that have no strategic value. Mere ineffectual policemen. Syria is a full on proxy war by all the major players so UN has zero role. A bit like talking about sending traffic wardens to control an armed riot / turf war between competing crime gangs.

I suspect you've missed a point in the original comment here

But anyway
Happy Christmas 8DD


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:56 pm 
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Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
wow, such unqualified claim!
"most unprepared"
"by far"
what units do you measure that in?


You could measure it in the size of our army, tiny, the size of our Navy, also tiny and the size of our Air force, non existent

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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:39 pm 
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the dude wrote:
Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
wow, such unqualified claim!
"most unprepared"
"by far"
what units do you measure that in?


You could measure it in the size of our army, tiny, the size of our Navy, also tiny and the size of our Air force, non existent

Luckily we spent billions digging a big trench around the country and filling it with water.


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:41 pm 
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the dude wrote:
Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
wow, such unqualified claim!
"most unprepared"
"by far"
what units do you measure that in?


You could measure it in the size of our army, tiny, the size of our Navy, also tiny and the size of our Air force, non existent
You could, but that would be stupid because we're unlikely to face a threat that we could overcome with a standing army, navy or air force. Unless of course you could suggest one? Maybe give a bit of a cost/benefit analysis?


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:04 pm 
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Bogman wrote:
the dude wrote:
Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
wow, such unqualified claim!
"most unprepared"
"by far"
what units do you measure that in?


You could measure it in the size of our army, tiny, the size of our Navy, also tiny and the size of our Air force, non existent

Luckily we spent billions digging a big trench around the country and filling it with water.


Wasn't that to stop capital flight?


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:09 am 
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Syria is WW3. End.

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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:09 am 
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2Pack wrote:
Syria is WW3. End.


So what was Afghanistan in 80s (and 00s)? Iraq? Libya? Iran/Iraq? Vietnam? Korea?

WW 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7... ? What makes Syria different? Most of the above were exponentially more bloody and kinetic and far reaching than Syria is now.

If anything Syria is a prime example of a Cold War style proxy war with extra regional actors thrown in.

Cold War 2.0 I say, be happy that Obama wanted so badly to get the hell out of the middle east, the new guy might not have much issues dropping a nuclear bomb on "em arabs" judging by his tweets.


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:34 am 
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satechi wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Syria is WW3. End.


So what was Afghanistan in 80s (and 00s)? Iraq? Libya? Iran/Iraq? Vietnam? Korea?

WW 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7... ? What makes Syria different? Most of the above were exponentially more bloody and kinetic and far reaching than Syria is now.

If anything Syria is a prime example of a Cold War style proxy war with extra regional actors thrown in.

Cold War 2.0 I say, be happy that Obama wanted so badly to get the hell out of the middle east, the new guy might not have much issues dropping a nuclear bomb on "em arabs" judging by his tweets.


None of the others had one million persons, predominately of a significantly different cultural background and religious background, migrating across multiple borders and being ferried with open doors policy into European continent with obligation to provide services to them in Europe.
That's the difference.
It's war through and by power of people, the people being refugees.


Merkel and her elite commanders have deliberately set up a situation for conflict. Very much so.
The refugees are experienced in conflict. Does not conflict beget conflict?

The root causes are not being tackled at all properly.
And a so called "humanitarian" response is being shown to be designed to cause difficulties for the receiving countries.

While Russia and Iran have, IMHO, thankfully constrained the crisis in Syria, we see political failure and fear to ask being the predominant feature of European politics right now. Just as it was in Germany during the rise of the Third Reich.
No one wants to break ranks for fear of such basic matters of their ATMs being turned off and the cash being unavailable.

The continent of Europe is now being ran by elites, including Merkel and many other senior politicians, who are doing what they are told. And what they are told is about setting up a big war in Europe. That's where we are.

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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:58 am 
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wii4miinow wrote:
None of the others had one million persons, predominately of a significantly different cultural background and religious background, migrating across multiple borders and being ferried with open doors policy into European continent with obligation to provide services to them in Europe.
That's the difference.
It's war through and by power of people, the people being refugees.



It's a difference tho' once again what makes it WW3? Arabs killing each other in the middle east isnt exactly new :(

A new twist on Putin's hybrid warfare against us in the west, all while our resident "useful idiots" are cheering him on.

I be more worried about Trumps and Putins latest nuclear dick measuring contest this week.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk ... by-mistake


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 Post subject: Re: PAN-CHAOS - Libya > Egypt > Syria > Iran > Iraq > US
PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:15 am 
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UK, US, Israel, Europe and Russia, coupled with local despots, are all to blame for the carnage in the Middle East. Anyone who buys into western propaganda that Russia are the 'sole' instigators are naive and worryingly misinformed.


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