A long slow slide between Denial and fear (yes even longer still) and then BANG collapse.
It will take a significant event (probably sovereign default) before there is any significant movement in the cycle.
It seems the plan is working out perfectly for the powers that be so far.
In the last 4 years we've had:
- Anglo, AIB, PTSB, EBS and Irish Nationwide go bang. BoI continues to teeter.
- Quinn, Dell and the whole construction industry go bang.
- Ireland being locked out of the band market.
- The IMF roll in.
- A Euro crisis.
I would have put a couple of those occurring as being good enough to move the market.
We've had all of them. We've had prices officially fall 40% and anecdotally 60% - and yet people still think prices are outlandish.
All this seems to show is how insane prices got on the way up.
Prices are now chasing the economy on the way down.