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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:44 am
Optimism 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Excitement 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Anxiety 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Denial 13%  13%  [ 16 ]
Fear 33%  33%  [ 42 ]
Desperation 22%  22%  [ 28 ]
Panic 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Capitulation 13%  13%  [ 17 ]
Despondency 11%  11%  [ 14 ]
Depression 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Hope 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Relief 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 128
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 Post subject: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:44 am 
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Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010 | July 2010 | September 2010 | January 2011 | April 2011

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:36 am 
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My oscillation between Denial and Fear continues. I'm back to Fear. The 'something surely will have to be done' brigade have quietened down. Those that can afford to, are gonna hang on and tough it out. It's all 'I should have sold ages ago ... wouldn't be worth my while now'.

There seems to be acceptance/fear that we're going lower short-term, but still some lingering belief that the settling point will be somewhere between here and the peak. I've said 'but that implies we're under-valued, which we're not' to which I've heard the reply: 'Ah no, we're about right for now, but that'll be under-valued in a few years'.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:50 am 
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jammyBastard wrote:
My oscillation between Denial and Fear continues.

+1. It entirely depends on what corner you look in.

With Pat Kenny on about debt forgiveness I can't help but think there's still a lot of denial. Denial about decisions that were made, denial how the upper echelons are getting away with it, denial about responsibility and because the poo hasn't really hit the fan, it's a feeling of so far, so good. Denial.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:06 am 
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DozyHound wrote:
jammyBastard wrote:
My oscillation between Denial and Fear continues.

+1. It entirely depends on what corner you look in.

With Pat Kenny on about debt forgiveness I can't help but think there's still a lot of denial. Denial about decisions that were made, denial how the upper echelons are getting away with it, denial about responsibility and because the poo hasn't really hit the fan, it's a feeling of so far, so good. Denial.


+1

Still a lot of denial going on in Dublin at any rate, if the stickiness of the prices is anything to go by.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:15 am 
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Fear is still the most popular vote, same as it was two years ago. July 2009 voted fear at 52%.
I am starting to wonder if there is much further to go here, unless you get large scale reposessions there is not much of a catalyst to get the market significantly lower. Credit is already diabolical so that is already in the price. I don't think we will see large scale reposessions, it might go down ok in Nevada but in a small country where everyone knows each other and house ownership is "sacred" I can't see it happening.

For example, 9 Kenilworth Sq sold for 460k yesterday, that's 362,000 punts.
I expect you could put 200k euros into the the house, 157,513 punts. So all in 519,513 punts
or 660,000 Euros. I imagine you could achieve a rent of 2,700 per month for a well decorated fresh place. That's a yield of 4.91%, could be better but not the worst.

I guess the possibility of much higher ineterst rates and higher taxes could do real damage to house prices. We will have a hike in July but come October we will have an Italian heading up the ECB and things there might not be such an appetite to get into a hiking cycle. Taxes...more to come obviously but I think the Govt knows any more tax increases are counter productive. It will result in job losses and more black economy activity.

What do you guys think? Happy to be contradicted here!

Capitulation


Last edited by fitw on Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:38 am 
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A long slow slide between Denial and fear (yes even longer still) and then BANG collapse.
It will take a significant event (probably sovereign default) before there is any significant movement in the cycle.
It seems the plan is working out perfectly for the powers that be so far.

I'm absolutely amazed how any person in this country has bought a house in the past year or so and frightened for the sanity of anyone looking to buy in the midst of what the future holds.
It's no wonder the media is so shit in this country given the fact that they report on the possibilities for the future and still people are tying themselves to a gaff 30% 40% 60% below peak and thinking how smart they were to wait it out.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:41 am 
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Capitulation for me. Talk to most people and they accept the economy is in the complete crapper. People realise the IMF are in the country and we only have more cuts and tax hikes to come. They know the country is a basketcase and unemployment is going to stay bad for quite a long time. I don't know anyone who thinks that house prices won't continue to go down.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:43 am 
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Neverbeenaworsetimetobuy wrote:
I'm absolutely amazed how any person in this country has bought a house in the past year or so and frightened for the sanity of anyone looking to buy in the midst of what the future holds.
It's no wonder the media is so shit in this country given the fact that they report on the possibilities for the future and still people are tying themselves to a gaff 30% 40% 60% below peak and thinking how smart they were to wait it out.
On the other hand your hard earned cash could disappear overnight in the event of a default, whereas a property is at least tangible.

Discuss :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:12 am 
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Capitulation. Shark Trager's attitude says it all.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:16 am 
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Neverbeenaworsetimetobuy wrote:
A long slow slide between Denial and fear (yes even longer still) and then BANG collapse.
It will take a significant event (probably sovereign default) before there is any significant movement in the cycle.
It seems the plan is working out perfectly for the powers that be so far.
.....

In the last 4 years we've had:
- Anglo, AIB, PTSB, EBS and Irish Nationwide go bang. BoI continues to teeter.
- Quinn, Dell and the whole construction industry go bang.
- Ireland being locked out of the band market.
- The IMF roll in.
- A Euro crisis.

I would have put a couple of those occurring as being good enough to move the market.

We've had all of them. We've had prices officially fall 40% and anecdotally 60% - and yet people still think prices are outlandish.

All this seems to show is how insane prices got on the way up.

Prices are now chasing the economy on the way down.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:28 am 
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Just did a quick look back through the previous polls and interestingly Fear is topping them all as far back as April 2008 where denial was ahead. That's over three years with no movement and it looks like we might still be there. With the recent auctions trying to get things moving and the possible deluge of NAMA stuff coming on the market in the not too distant future we might be about to go to the next stage, grudgingly as ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:29 am 
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Panic.

Institutional panic, anyway. I see plenty of new top-end cars. I'm willing to bet that these are bought, largely, for cash and that there is a movement from cash to assets underway. This doesn't speak to me of recovery, more of panic about the future position of the state. Likewise, cash house purchases for 'investment' - really somewhere to park money.

edit: when the panic stops, when the cash buyers have spent, that'll be interesting.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:32 am 
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I still have to say denial, this is based on talking with the average Joe in the canteen in work. Most are expecting house prices to recover from here, they still think that bubble house prices are the true value of their homes and it's only because of the recession that they have dropped.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:33 am 
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InForADime wrote:
Capitulation. Shark Trager's attitude says it all.

The penny had a long way to drop.

Link.

I vote capitulation. There might be a degree of panic when the interest rates kick in and people do the sums.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:56 am 
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Coles2 wrote:
InForADime wrote:
Capitulation. Shark Trager's attitude says it all.

The penny had a long way to drop.

Link.

I vote capitulation. There might be a degree of panic when the interest rates kick in and people do the sums.

Er, capitulation is after panic...

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