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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Tue Nov 01, 2011 1:42 am
Optimism 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Excitement 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Anxiety 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Denial 22%  22%  [ 28 ]
Fear 28%  28%  [ 36 ]
Desperation 17%  17%  [ 22 ]
Panic 8%  8%  [ 10 ]
Capitulation 15%  15%  [ 19 ]
Despondency 5%  5%  [ 7 ]
Depression 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Hope 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Relief 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 130
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 Post subject: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:42 am 
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Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 4:43 pm 
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Denial

I think I put Fear last time but after recent chats with family re execution of a will, a chat in the park with two parents and a chat with a work colligue I revise my opinion backwards to Denial.

Not denial that prices are falling that's very much accepted but there is a feeling we are at the bottom now and " how could they get much lower. The relles want to keep the house rent it out and sell it for a profit in a few years time when the Market has recovered. There is disbelief when I suggested that we would not see the bottom until circa 2013.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:03 pm 
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Capitulation.

I find that an increasing number of people realize that prices are continuing to drop, and will do for some time. People have given up hope that it is only a glitch, or temporary. A feeling that 'we are so deep in negative equity, sure what difference does a little more make'.

Maybe it is the surroundings that I'm in that have changed, but I just don't hear too many people talking about it as much anymore. This is with people that I know and interact with personally, or on the Radio etc. The conversation seems to have changed. For most of the last decade the conversation everywhere was property: prices only ever go up, bought a brilliant place, yak yak... and then followed by sob, sob.... for years. It seems to have changed.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:23 pm 
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With headlines like Fall in house prices accelerates it has to be capitulation. I don't think there is much room for denial they see what the Allsop auctions are making and are pricing accordingly if they must sell. If you look at the trend in daftwatchit appears to be static, there really is no market for the property at the asking prices sought.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:28 pm 
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I guess I do agree with you BoyRacer it just feels like we skipped Desperation and Panic

I went for Denial not in the sence that people don't beleve the market is falling but I think despite the headlines I think that there is a lot of denial that it's going to fall further.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:45 pm 
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Certainly pockets of panic in Dublin. Denial prevails outside Dublin. You can see this also in the stock levels by county on the front page of Daft, but nothing new in this.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:21 pm 
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Defo think we are in capitulation. We seem to have skipped panic and desperation, no surprise though with Rent Allowance and NAMA propping things up.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:28 pm 
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Panic.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:29 pm 
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rebelbuttmunch wrote:
Defo think we are in capitulation. We seem to have skipped panic and desperation, no surprise though with Rent Allowance and NAMA propping things up.


Wouldn't capitulation involve actual events of people capitulating, and the resulting increase of reasonably priced property on daft? I'm still not seeing much of that. Panic I think, maybe, but the kind of panic that one has before anything is done. The headless chicken type of panic.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:43 pm 
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Somewhere between denial and fear. I picked denial.

Another budget or two may move it along.

Though I suspect in terms of the group of the population who are selling property the vast vast majority are in denial.

And why shouldn't they be? Various state supports in place to prop everything up as best it can, and enough people out there with the means for a drip feed of sales means one can cling to the belief for a little longer. Of perhaps a lot longer.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:48 pm 
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when you don't have bank repossessing houses and nama in place the market will take a long time to bottom out, everything from denial to depression out there.

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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 8:44 pm 
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Agree with Johnny's point above. When you want to believe the house you are selling is still worth X and you look at Daft and find all of the Nama stuff asking X, why would you settle for Y. Granted your house would never sell for X but you don't want to be that person who held on too long and may risk even worse than financial loss....loss of membership of the canny society.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:20 pm 
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I went for capitulation too and agree with the bit about skipping panic and desperation. I suppose the whole contrived nature of the unwinding might have something to do with that. I sense capitulation, but in resigned sort of way. A switch was flicked sometime this year with the general public. Not sure if it was Allsop or what, but something changed.

Wouldn't surprise me if we skipped despondency and depression too and decided to linger in capitulation for a while then jump straight to hope in about 18 months time.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:44 pm 
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My last 6 votes:

Denial
Denial
Denial
Denial
Fear
Denial

This time, I'm moving on to Fear for keeps, having been forced to retreat back to Denial in Summer following a Trichetesque jumping of the gun on to Fear last Spring.

I see precious little Desperation or Panic with respect to property and property prices. When it comes to joblessness, emigration, falling incomes and so forth, plenty of desperation and panic. But gaffs? Not yet, but the Fear is definitely more palpable now.

I doubt I'll move beyond Fear for several quarters.


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 Post subject: Re: Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:59 pm 
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I Selected denial - based on recent, multiple, contacts with EAs and challenging asking prices they were quoting.
Still being told " they won't sell for less than X" even when no offers - and I'm thinking X minus 30 to 40%!!
Other common theme I've come accross is " it's with the bank now but they won't accept anything close to your offer"
So if fear and panic are part of a well recognised response, they have not been ' skipped' , as some suggest - they just haven't happened yet.
I think the ' powers that be' continue to try to massage the notion that the next boom is just around the corner and this simply delays the inevitable. BD


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