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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:05 am 
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Worstpigeon wrote:
Must be the first month in a while houses haven't gone up. Has the inflation of the bubble ceased?

If only. The month on month changes are pretty noisy and have hit zero or below ten other times since the 2012 trough, last time in December:

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CSO Residential Prices: Dublin Houses, index and MoM %change

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:45 am 
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They also experience a high level of seasonality.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:56 am 
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House prices jump by almost 12% in the year to May

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consume ... -1.3150623

Well done Coveney (Help to Buy) and Noonan (lobbying central bank ease lending rules), both first degree cretins

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:16 pm 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
House prices jump by almost 12% in the year to May

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consume ... -1.3150623

Well done Coveney (Help to Buy) and Noonan (lobbying central bank ease lending rules), both first degree cretins


Problem is this is exactly the intention - it's not law of unintended consequences. They set out to increase prices and succeeded

I agree it's idiotic however but like everything in Ireland we learn fuck all. As another poster said previously, it's a pity people queue outside developments to buy rather than queue outside the Dail with pitch forks

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Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:03 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – May 2017 & Overall figures:

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... exmay2017/

Image

Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 47,587 Property Purchases in 2016 as at 11/07/17.
Per BPFI there were 27,416 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2016. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
Therefore 42.4% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2016.
This compares to 47.7% cash sales in 2015, 50.7% in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:03 am 
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CSO have revised the figures back to Jan 2010 as more info now available

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

I'll put up my usual analysis later but the key point I've found in Dublin houses have now overtaken the base of Jan 2005. Prices are at levels last seen in Feb-March 2009 (when they were falling) and previously Feb 2005 (when they were rising

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:58 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
Prices are at levels last seen in Feb-March 2009 (when they were falling)

That's when they were falling precipitously!

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:21 pm 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
Prices are at levels last seen in Feb-March 2009 (when they were falling)

That's when they were falling precipitously!


you mean "landing softly".

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:59 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – June 2017 & Overall figures:

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/


Image

Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 49,437 Property Purchases in 2016 as at 9/08/17.
Per BPFI there were 27,416 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2016. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
Therefore 44.5% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2016.
This compares to 47.7% cash sales in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.
In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:47 am 
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Monthly CSO results are out. I see they've gone to median instead of mean for average prices by Eircode

http://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pres ... riceindex/

My usual analysis to follow. They have it as 12% increases annually across the board


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:37 pm 
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So Dublin prices up 12.7% in the year to July17. Nearly double that of 12 months ago.
Not good


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:44 pm 
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Pepends if you are a property owner or not.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:52 pm 
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Luan wrote:
Pepends if you are a property owner or not.

I'm a property owner and I also have kids who I'd like to one day become the same without having to move out of Leinster.
So I'll stand by my 'not good' comment


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:02 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
So Dublin prices up 12.7% in the year to July17. Nearly double that of 12 months ago.
Not good


Dublin house prices are now highest since May 2005 (when prices were rising) and Feb 2009 (when prices were falling)


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:13 pm 
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Luan wrote:
Pepends if you are a property owner or not.


It's still bad for most property owners; many will want to trade up at some point (which gets more expensive as prices rise), and property tax will be revalued to some semblance of reality sooner or later...


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