Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 2351 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 157  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:36 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Nov 7, 2008
Posts: 1317
Residential down 14.3% year to date, down 1.5% in September.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... ep2011.pdf


Last edited by mambo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:33 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Renamed thread as it's turning into a megathread


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:42 am 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Jul 6, 2010
Posts: 501
Its frightening how quickly they are falling.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:43 am 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Jul 6, 2010
Posts: 501
Best case scenario for 2012 is half that but more likely be -10%


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:18 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jan 31, 2009
Posts: 1597
Great analysis by NWL here: http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/ ... partments/

Apartments in Dublin are now down 59.2% from peak.
Nationally we are down 44.2% from peak.

The biggest surprise is the large percentage movements month on month. If we are getting near a bottom, which we clearly are not, one would expect that the monthly movements would be for lower percentages.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:52 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jan 25, 2007
Posts: 1716
fungus wrote:
Apartments in Dublin are now down 59.2% from peak.
Nationally we are down 44.2% from peak.

It is uncanny how accurate Morgan Kelly actually was...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:03 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: May 2, 2008
Posts: 1545
Location: Ireland
superman wrote:
fungus wrote:
Apartments in Dublin are now down 59.2% from peak.
Nationally we are down 44.2% from peak.

It is uncanny how accurate Morgan Kelly actually was...


Or maybe the market is 'aware' of Morgans predictions and following suit...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:06 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: Aug 21, 2009
Posts: 4280
Location: Mesopotatia
greentree wrote:
superman wrote:
fungus wrote:
Apartments in Dublin are now down 59.2% from peak.
Nationally we are down 44.2% from peak.

It is uncanny how accurate Morgan Kelly actually was...


Or maybe the market is 'aware' of Morgans predictions and following suit...


Yes. It is Morgan's fault. The damn cribber.

_________________
The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
Sophie Scholl


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:13 pm 
Offline
Old Time Landlord

Joined: Jun 7, 2011
Posts: 351
superman wrote:
fungus wrote:
Apartments in Dublin are now down 59.2% from peak.
Nationally we are down 44.2% from peak.

It is uncanny how accurate Morgan Kelly actually was...


His prediction was for an overshoot to an 80% fall........so, just over half way there! Nationally maybe, but certainly not for houses in parts of Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:13 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Nov 7, 2008
Posts: 1317
Dubhgeannain wrote:
Yes. It is Morgan's fault. The damn cribber.


He talked down the economy.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:18 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jan 25, 2007
Posts: 1716
KOR101 wrote:
superman wrote:
fungus wrote:
Apartments in Dublin are now down 59.2% from peak.
Nationally we are down 44.2% from peak.

It is uncanny how accurate Morgan Kelly actually was...


His prediction was for an overshoot to an 80% fall........so, just over half way there! Nationally maybe, but certainly not for houses in parts of Dublin.

Not an overshoot of 80% IIRC, I think it was 60% with "up to 80% in areas"?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:31 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 4771
Overall Decline
House prices in Dublin are 49% lower than at their highest level in early 2007 (fell by 1.7% in the month of September and 15.3% lower compared to a year earlier)

Apartments in Dublin are now 59% lower than they were in February 2007 (fell by 4.8% in the month of September)

Residential property prices in Dublin are 52% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 2.1% in September)

The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 40% (a fall of 1% in September and 14.3% in the year to September)

Overall, the national index is 44% lower than its highest level in 2007 (fell by 1.5% in September)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:54 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Jul 6, 2010
Posts: 501
The index is 44% but on the ground figures are much lower. In places, properties are selling at a 70% discount on the peak 2007 levels.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:59 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation
User avatar

Joined: Aug 27, 2011
Posts: 2001
Location: Local bubble zone
doubledigitgrowth wrote:
The index is 44% but on the ground figures are much lower. In places, properties are selling at a 70% discount on the peak 2007 levels.


+1
60-70% decreases, 75% and higher for trophy homes
Even sherry fitz admit this, so why are we still referring to 50% fails???????
with so little sales outside the major urban areas its hard to calculate accurately for rural areas

_________________
Qi hu nan xia: When one rides a tiger, it is difficult to dismount.
House prices are cyclical, no nation has ever lived through a perpetual house price expansion or contraction.
Money is a public good; as such, it lends itself to private exploitation - CP Kindleberger


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:24 pm 
Offline
Single Home Owner

Joined: Jan 25, 2008
Posts: 193
Location: building site
As long as Priory Hall is still in the news I would say that the market for apartments will be even worse than it has been over last couple of years. If one or two more Priory Halls are discovered then there will be no market for years to come for apartments built over the last 10 years.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: CSO Index September 2011
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:47 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 27, 2007
Posts: 1776
superman wrote:
KOR101 wrote:
superman wrote:
It is uncanny how accurate Morgan Kelly actually was...

His prediction was for an overshoot to an 80% fall........so, just over half way there! Nationally maybe, but certainly not for houses in parts of Dublin.

Not an overshoot of 80% IIRC, I think it was 60% with "up to 80% in areas"?

http://irserver.ucd.ie/dspace/bitstream ... ap_001.pdf
Can be worth re-reading sometimes.
MK in 2007 wrote:
If this relationship were to hold for Ireland, the expected fall in average real house prices is in the range 40 to 60 per cent, over a period of around 8 years.
and
MK in 2007 wrote:
Alternatively, assuming an equilibrium price-rent ratio in the region of 15, it suggests that large falls in prices, of the order of 85 per cent, might be needed for the top of the market to return to fundamental value.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin ... 20759.html
MK in 2009 wrote:
In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 2351 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 157  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to: