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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:21 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – September 2016 & Overall figures:

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ember2016/

Image

Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 33,878 Property Purchases in Jan-Sep 2016 as at 17/11/16.
Per BPFI there were 18,993 Mortgage Drawdowns in Jan-Sep 2016. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
Therefore 43.9% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2016.
This compares to 47.6% cash sales in 2015, 50.7% in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:32 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
Dublin prices are up 63% in three years. If that doesn't scare the shit out of people ... well then we're probably back to bubble mentality as well as bubble prices.

We are certainly near bubble growth rates:


This graph shows how stupid people are and how easy is to manipulate the 'well developed' country like Ireland.

Super growth or deep recession almost nothing between. distorted sinusoid
Every time the growth was slowing down, there was some major action, am I right?

_________________
Why it was so windy there?... I am out.

For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:37 am 
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The continued recovery in house prices is hardly a surprise, or a reason to panic. Average house prices are now at the level they were in 2004. Back then, GDP per capita was about 48,000 USD. Today, it's around 56,000. In the interim, we had a boom and a massive bust, when house prices went up far too high, and then overshot on the way down. The collapse in house prices was a result of a recession, a huge spike in unemployment, and a lack of credit. Add in demographic pressures and the lack of building in the past 10 years, and it's hardly surprising that prices are rising (but are largely being kept in check by the CB rules). In any case, the answer, as we all know, is to increase supply, but that can only happen when prices are above build cost.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:57 am 
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mortgageboy wrote:
The continued recovery in house prices is hardly a surprise, or a reason to panic. Average house prices are now at the level they were in 2004. Back then, GDP per capita was about 48,000 USD. Today, it's around 56,000. In the interim, we had a boom and a massive bust, when house prices went up far too high, and then overshot on the way down. The collapse in house prices was a result of a recession, a huge spike in unemployment, and a lack of credit. Add in demographic pressures and the lack of building in the past 10 years, and it's hardly surprising that prices are rising (but are largely being kept in check by the CB rules). In any case, the answer, as we all know, is to increase supply, but that can only happen when prices are above build cost.

YoY growth to September in Dublin is way ahead of nominal inflation, in spite of the CB slamming the brakes on. Elsewhere in the country it is as high as 15%. There is still a chronic mortgage arrears problem and a rental and homelessness crisis. High build costs are due to a combination of government policy, government ineptitude, and a government-supported bubble in commercial property. The mid-2000s collapse in house prices was not the result of a recession, it was the cause of it. Global factors were merely the trigger, contrary to FF revisionism. 20% of employment and 20% of our economy was based purely on selling houses to each other and too much wealth was in fictitious home equity. GDP per capita is, as we well know, the result of Leprechaun Economics, not anything to do with the real Irish economy.

In 2013 the average Dublin house was 8.3 times earnings, and that was when the "recovery" was only starting to take hold. In 2016, Dublin prices are rated as "seriously unaffordable". The media have gone back to touting vested interests -- just yesterday prime time RTE news had VIs talking about "healthy price increases" and a "spreading recovery", and Savills' Director of Research (a.k.a. chief tout) predicting 10% rises in Dublin next year. You are right that it's hardly surprising that prices are going up due to demand and market manipulation ... but if there's no reason to panic it's only because you get used to the housing market being a basket case after nearly two decades of it.

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:23 am 
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mortgageboy wrote:
In any case, the answer, as we all know, is to increase supply, but that can only happen when prices are above build cost.

I believe the build cost thing is nonsense. New builds in odd place outside the M50 (e.g. Diswellstown, few services and with motorway noise) probably give an indicator of build costs when land isn't super-expensive.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/broch ... ck/3467606

If you look at the price differentials here:

€415,000 for the three bedroom houses - The Eagle (116sq.m/1,248sq.ft) (All Sold)
€500,000 for the four bedroom houses - The G Type (134sq.m/1442sq.ft)
€630,000 for the five bedroom houses - The Links (189sq.m/2,038sq.ft)

The extra 215k between smallest and largest buys 73sqm, so ~3k/sqm.

The reason we don't have more 400k A-rated new build 3 bed semi-ds in Dublin is probably a combination of land costs and developer finance. Land costs ought to be elastic. I suspect the land for these Diswellstown houses was a sunk cost.

In inner south Dublin these new builds would be priced at 700-800k. Those prices are not a function of build cost.

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:27 am 
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+1 ps200306.

On radio yesterday Brian Finn, the RTE financial correspondent, described the 6% year to date increase in house prices in Dublin as 'healthy growth' and the 15% increase in Longford as 'recovering nicely'. What a fool.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:23 pm 
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mortgageboy wrote:
The continued recovery in house prices is hardly a surprise


agree

mortgageboy wrote:
or a reason to panic


disagree

I hate the phrase "prices are recovering". It sounds like huge rises are normal, aren't a bad thing and 2006 prices are the aspiration (well I know they are for a lot of people in this country)

Also why is it only used in house prices? Car insurance costs are going up but are below their early 2000s peak. People spend a fraction of what they spend on accommodation on car insurance. Yet "rip off" insurers are "hiking" premiums. Why aren't motor insurance premiums simply "recovering"?

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Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:30 pm 
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Coles2 wrote:
On radio yesterday Brian Finn, the RTE financial correspondent, described the 6% year to date increase in house prices in Dublin as 'healthy growth' and the 15% increase in Longford as 'recovering nicely'. What a fool.


Healthy fucking growth, what's that compared to wage inflation?

It's shocking we're having these conversations so soon after the last bust. While it's shocking I'm in no way shocked XX

_________________
Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:33 pm 
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Posts: 1380
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This is healthy according to our masters. What is really scary is lack of alternatives, FF or FG are same bollocks, then SF or other mainstream opposition are all even more dangerous to the economy.

I can't vote here anyway.. too much paperwork required plus way over 1100€ never seemed like a good investment to me.

_________________
Why it was so windy there?... I am out.

For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:53 pm 
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Joined: Oct 26, 2015
Posts: 6
Eschatologist wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
In any case, the answer, as we all know, is to increase supply, but that can only happen when prices are above build cost.

I believe the build cost thing is nonsense. New builds in odd place outside the M50 (e.g. Diswellstown, few services and with motorway noise) probably give an indicator of build costs when land isn't super-expensive.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/broch ... ck/3467606

If you look at the price differentials here:

€415,000 for the three bedroom houses - The Eagle (116sq.m/1,248sq.ft) (All Sold)
€500,000 for the four bedroom houses - The G Type (134sq.m/1442sq.ft)
€630,000 for the five bedroom houses - The Links (189sq.m/2,038sq.ft)

The extra 215k between smallest and largest buys 73sqm, so ~3k/sqm.

The reason we don't have more 400k A-rated new build 3 bed semi-ds in Dublin is probably a combination of land costs and developer finance. Land costs ought to be elastic. I suspect the land for these Diswellstown houses was a sunk cost.

In inner south Dublin these new builds would be priced at 700-800k. Those prices are not a function of build cost.


The land was bought in 2005 for 25million, NAMA subsequently took it over so you are probably talking about 200,000 per site at the original price. Not sure how much they valued the land at though when they came up with the prices. I did expect that the prices for the 4beds would have been higher when first launched a year ago (480k) but was pleasantly surprised when I see them.

I bought in this development, never would have thought it lacked services though. Schools, pub, hotel, GAA pitches, good bus service all within a 7min walk and a train a further 10mins away.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:56 pm 
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pmcb wrote:
I bought in this development, never would have thought it lacked services though. Schools, pub, hotel, GAA pitches, good bus service all within a 7min walk and a train a further 10mins away.

How is traffic at peak times? We were seriously considering this development until work location made it impossible - traffic was the number one concern (and to a lesser extent the proximity of the M50). Everything else looked really good.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:01 pm 
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Barney Gumble wrote:
pmcb wrote:
I bought in this development, never would have thought it lacked services though. Schools, pub, hotel, GAA pitches, good bus service all within a 7min walk and a train a further 10mins away.

How is traffic at peak times? We were seriously considering this development until work location made it impossible - traffic was the number one concern (and to a lesser extent the proximity of the M50). Everything else looked really good.


I leave for work at 6:35am and there is no traffic until I get to the m50. It takes about 13mims to get to the N4 junction on M50. In the evening it takes me 15-20mins to get from M50 between 5-7pm. The traffic hasn't bothered me too much but if you do leave later it could take 30+mins to get to the M50. Overall we are delighted with it, the estate is nearing completion and really starting to take shape now.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:05 pm 
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Who knew but it turns out houses in Ireland are undervalued!!!

Irish house prices still undervalued, says European Commission
Houses undervalued by nearly 15 per cent in 2015, scope for price rises into 2017
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/econ ... -1.2876452
Quote:
Austin Hughes, economist with KBC Bank, says that while price gains since last December will have narrowed the imbalance, there is still room for price growth.
“If the current pace of price increase is sustained to the end of this year, this would correct about half of the undervaluation estimated in the commission report. In turn, this would suggest that, in the absence of notably adverse shocks to the Irish economy in 2017, Irish house prices could see further solid gains,” he said.


Austin Hughes - he's not gone away you know :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:49 pm 
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Posts: 723
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FreeFallin wrote:
Who knew but it turns out houses in Ireland are undervalued!!!

Irish house prices still undervalued, says European Commission
Houses undervalued by nearly 15 per cent in 2015, scope for price rises into 2017
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/econ ... -1.2876452
Quote:
Austin Hughes, economist with KBC Bank, says that while price gains since last December will have narrowed the imbalance, there is still room for price growth.
“If the current pace of price increase is sustained to the end of this year, this would correct about half of the undervaluation estimated in the commission report. In turn, this would suggest that, in the absence of notably adverse shocks to the Irish economy in 2017, Irish house prices could see further solid gains,” he said.


Austin Hughes - he's not gone away you know :roll:


Maybe someone can help - I am looking at the report from the EC but I somehow fail to identify where it says that Irish house prices are undervalued.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:36 pm 
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That EC report being discussed on Newstalk now....with Ross Maguire on as the talking head !!! A barrister talking about economics


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