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Public Emotional response to house market
Poll ended at Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:47 am
Optimism 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Excitement 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Anxiety 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Denial 16%  16%  [ 17 ]
Fear 17%  17%  [ 18 ]
Desperation 18%  18%  [ 19 ]
Panic 9%  9%  [ 10 ]
Capitulation 21%  21%  [ 22 ]
Despondency 7%  7%  [ 7 ]
Depression 4%  4%  [ 4 ]
Hope 6%  6%  [ 6 ]
Relief 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 106
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 Post subject: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 11:47 am 
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Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010 | July 2010 | September 2010 | January 2011 | April 2011 | July 2011 | October 2011

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 11:57 am 
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Based on the continued price falls and lack of credit we are definitely at capitulation and beyond.
In fact some investors see opportunity based on the results of the Alsopp auctions and are strictly following the rule of ten.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:00 pm 
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Panic

Personally know a number of Canny McSavvy's now officially in panic mode, one has advanced as far as Depression on the graph. Heavily subsidising their portfolio of buy-to-lets from their own reduced main salaries plus the range of ancillary additional charges coming down the tracks at residential investment property owners. Wealth destruction acceleration.

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:22 pm 
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Despondancy, but I kind of mean in a hands in the air ambivalent way.....that's how I feel. Unless people start getting real about how fubared things are at home and in Europe for me there's no point in even thinking about property at the moment

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:29 pm 
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Panic but quite close to capitulation.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:50 pm 
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I've looked back over my voting record on the previous polls, I was voting Fear from 2008 until Oct 11 moved to Panic, now moved to Desperation. Things are accelerating towards Capitulation but it's not there yet. When capitulation comes it may well be reflected in an external devaluation due to currency re-alignment rather than nominal price drops. I'd expect a Euro Lite/Punt Nua to instantly devalue by approx 30% vs Euro.

The Denial/Fear phase of the bubble took five years, I think Despondency will arrive in H2 2013.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:06 pm 
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The people I know who are heavily invested - i.e. up to their necks in debt - are very much in despondency and depression, but are so surely trapped that it doesn't really matter. In fact, I was told as recently as last night that one of my close friends has realised that he is at financial rock bottom and has found some relief and freedom in that.
That said, from the point of view of people who would like to buy - myself included in this - all the acceptance in the world is not going to make one jot of difference if there are no properties priced to reflect this on the market. Sure, there are some places that seem like they are reasonable, but I don't want to live in Newport, Tipperary, nice and all as it is, and I don't fancy shelling out half a million shekels to live in some pokey hole in the less salubrious parts of Wicklow.
The attitude of the banks and government have successfully derailed prices from the cycle of emotions. Ireland is different.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:07 pm 
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xman wrote:
I've looked back over my voting record on the previous polls, I was voting Fear from 2008 until Oct 11 moved to Panic, now moved to Desperation. Things are accelerating towards Capitulation but it's not there yet. When capitulation comes it may well be reflected in an external devaluation due to currency re-alignment rather than nominal price drops. I'd expect a Euro Lite/Punt Nua to instantly devalue by approx 30% vs Euro.

The Denial/Fear phase of the bubble took five years, I think Despondency will arrive in H2 2013.


Don't follow you there Xman. Desperation comes before panic....


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:17 pm 
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Doh, I voted Desperation in Oct and also on this thread :oops:


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:19 pm 
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I still see it as being a big mix depending on personal circumstances. I see a lot of fear, desperation and even panic amongst the accidental investors but the one seller we tried to engage with remains in complete denial.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:24 pm 
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I voted Denial, again. This is based on the same conversations that I've been having for the last 5 years with family, friends and colleagues. There is a small hint of fear in a few though.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:59 pm 
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Fear, but I wouldn't quibble with Foyboy's selection of on-going Denial.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 7:24 pm 
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I think there is always going to be an ongoing element of denial, but voting for it now when there is widespread acknowledgment of the huge drops that have occurred, and that further may occur seems mistaken to me. It isn't denial in the spirit of the cycle, such as it is.

I hope those pinsters who voted for denial are not waiting to purchase, because they may well find themselves a couple of years behind the curve.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 7:27 pm 
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Foyboy wrote:
I voted Denial, again. This is based on the same conversations that I've been having for the last 5 years with family, friends and colleagues. There is a small hint of fear in a few though.


Are they denying prices are down 40-60% from peak? Are they denying the current asking prices of houses?


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2012 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 7:43 pm 
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bugler wrote:
Foyboy wrote:
I voted Denial, again. This is based on the same conversations that I've been having for the last 5 years with family, friends and colleagues. There is a small hint of fear in a few though.


Are they denying prices are down 40-60% from peak? Are they denying the current asking prices of houses?


I think the denial concerns the consequences of a crashed property market.
No on can deny that it has fallen, but many still believe it will recover.


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