Interesting stuff JXBR. I wonder how many of the 'property buying' cohort are out of the game because they are 200k underwater on apartments?

That is why I said potential. They are the largest cohort of potential buyers, subject to all these caveats. They will drive property purchases at the lower end of the market, directly or indirectly, which will in turn, at a lag, drive property purchases at higher levels. and so on. But the ESRI are wrong is asserting that any movement will be rapid.

i never got that, when did Chewbacca say he wanted to live in SCD? sorry i menat to say Endor

and for all those potential buyers category I would hope they dont buy into this media nonsense this side of the default/devaluation. Its a no brainer but then again a lot of people seem to have no brains

jxbr, you refer to migrants here, by that do you mean internal migration? In an earlier post you refer to immigration as a possibility for the bulge but looking at Irish birth rates you'd have expected the outcome you show above.

Throughout the 50's, 60's and 70's there were approx 60,000 births a year. In the late 70's and early 80's this jumped to 75,000 before falling back to around 50,000. These people born in the late 70s, early 80's would now be in the 25-34 age range and as such the big bulge that we are now seeing at that age group is more likely down to the baby boom of late 70's than immigration

The number of births stayed around 48k-52k throughout the early 90s before increasing steadily each year to around 75k last year. There seems to be another, longer lasting, wave coming in the not too distant future. Universities are already looking at funding options in 3-4 years time when they get hit with a large increase in 17 year olds (hence their arguments for reintroducing fees) and schools are gearing up for the current high birth rate.

I can't find data on a county by county breakdown hence my reference to migration above as it's not clear in what counties the mini baby boom of 70s was or it it was nationwide.

I was careful to state need not want

Yes, way wrong in fact. The 'normal' journey time from the north of BALBRIGGAN to the city centre is 28 minutes in mid-morning or mid-afternoon (based on hundreds of journeys), and that's without going through the tunnel.

I have no idea. More analysis is needed. I would have expected learned institutions like the ESRI to perform this.

All you can tell is that they are migrants. The source - internal or external - can only be inferred by cross-referencing to other data. You can also track population numbers by age/age cohort across censuses to identify when the migration occurred.

If you make me a professor in the ESRI and give me a stick-on beard, I will produce the analysis.

There is mixed information here:

CNA12 Population by County, Year, Sex and Usual Residence One Year Previous - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

CNA32 Population Born Outside County of Enumeration by County and Year - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

CNA19 Population Change Components by County, Year and Statistic - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

CNA31 Population by County, Year and Country of Birth - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

PEA03 Estimated Population Migration by Sex, Age Group, Year and Origin or Destination - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

PEA02 Estimated Population Migration by Sex, Year, Origin or Destination and Country - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

The CSO used to publish population by age cohort and county.

Balbriggan is a closer to the M1 though. My usual time from skerries to city is 30 mins.

Skerries-M1 10 mins, M1-Whitehall 10 mins, Whitehall-city centre 10 mins.

This holds for all times except rush hour.

Thanks Larry.

I was just going to say that if my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle

If we had a functional, & solvent banking sector, then this article might, just might be worth reading. But we don't & we won't for the at least the next decade, so I won't inconvenience the electrons !

The largest single mortgage provider in the state, PTSB, has closed it's doors; the Non-National Banks, have closed their doors; the two 'Pillock Banks', have taken some time out from fucking up SMEs, to introduce forensic accounting for people before even pretending to offer a Mortgage. Most of these notional buyers, at least the ones I know, are worried about their jobs & wages, & are up to the arse in other debt, CCs, cars the works, they won't meet mortgage criteria until prices drop by another 20%.

Just where the fuck is the money going to come from to stop the decline, let alone create something that could be described as a surge ?

Don't forget all the non-nationals who have no intention of buying in Ireland.
So they belong to the "can buy, but won't" group.

Big percent of my "migrant" friends are almost ready to leave Ireland within months now, as they saved enough or they simply cannot afford to have normal life here.
I don't understand why this Apts are still so overpriced and price is rising in places where there is no antisocial part of the Irish society (which seems to be on a rise..)

Unemployment
So why Ireland is still so expensive? is it because of "lovely" weather? (or elephant in the room...)

This is a propaganda piece from those Spoofers at the ERSI.

The general public is getting fed up with feeling poorer and poorer. Those houseowners with savings are not spending and won't because they feel that their equity in property is falling and falling. The government want people with money to spend to stimulate the domestic economy. Claiming that there will be a surge in property prices will make these people feel richer and therefore more likely to spend.

NAMA has still a pile of apartments to move and somebody has to try to stimulate demand.

Remember also that people with property will have a higher threshold for upping stakes and moving abroad. Property owners are a captive tax base.

As 'economists', the ERSI remain ignorant of the basic facts (which even the dogs in the street now know), that the residential property market is dependent primarily on the availability of credit. Without lending, peoples aspirations to own their own house will come to nothing. If credit was readily available, then the demographics may be important, but only in the context of the general economic conditions. A rising demographic and mass emigration, will not do anything for housing demand. A rising population with long term economic growth in the presence of credit availability would result in increase in demand.

Once you realise where the ERSI is coming from (vested interest mouthpiece), you realise how poor the quality of its work really is.

I imagine that all those vacant developments being "withheld" from the market are finally starting to bite.
Clancy Quay in Islandbridge is still mostly empty and there's hundreds of units there, a very reasonable distance from DCC.

someone much more intelligent than me told me that only when foreign lenders re-enter the market here to offer mortgages (given that our current banks cannot freely) will it indicate a return to normality - as in they would not be taking on default risk.

they have also said to me that the cost of living has not fallen here as the troika is not insisting on it until our banking system is stablised more by the tax payer and ready to be sold back to private investors, as it could jeopardize the repayment.

then after that all bets are off.

it is strange that the IMF have not insisted upon more reform, as they have in other countries.


this entire episode in irish history is turning me into a socialist.

Where else would you find the elephant when it's pissing outside? Unfortunately there's other folk can't get into the room now though