Yeah , don't reall think its €bn ... but anyway
here is the link to the fiscal council report http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/fiscal-asse ... mber-2012/
Now correct me if I'm wrong the budget is predicated on a troika-agreed 3.5bn of consolidation to get down sliced 1.25 in tax increases, and 2.25 in cuts. ( and Kenny, Noonan have said at the moment they only want to get 500 million out of property tax ) - you can get this stuff from from the EAP review.
That graph looks like it will = 1bn by budget. Therefore they will either roll the deficit into 2013 and start ( E.g HSE new budget = (already cut 2013 budget LESS those cuts you couldn't do in 2012 ) OR we see other cuts OR we see unplanned tax hikes to fix the issue
- and that's only to fix 2013 - what do they to to fix the 2012 problem. According to that the DSP and HSE will run out of cash in mid-November so they cannot do nothing.
My guess for 2013 - we will see soon some serious groaning out of Finance and I think the rhetoric around the property tax rate , and any tax talks will become extremely stony-faced. This also has the potential to be a Croke Park breacher unless they get it in check
in trying to figure this out we see that HSE is wonderful and publishing statistics, and DSP is brutal . HSE do a detailed monthly update for the amount of money get DSP should be shot.
Tell me I'm wrong. The only other option I can see is to do a mini-Greece and ignore the problem