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 Post subject: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:28 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Image<a href="http://imgur.com/5yQB9"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/5yQB9.png" alt="" title="Hosted by imgur.com" /></a>

Source is the fiscal council, and given yesterdays numbers out of HSE this is actually going to get much worse.

Hi guys this is or should be a graph of the overrun we are looking at.

If that continues we are going to see an overrun of +1B , which is going to knock any property tax etc into the high end

This is frankly appalling as the troika stuff is locked. Fuck knows where they'll find it.

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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 8:29 am 
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Surprised that the social protection over-runs are so much higher than health. Where are these coming from - I would have assumed they made a reasonable forecast of the numbers claiming benefit (which have been reasonably flat?) Plus they should be making savings from the existing - I reported someone late last year and it still doesn't seem to have been actioned.


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 8:32 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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€bn on the Y axis?


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:23 am 
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Yeah , don't reall think its €bn ... but anyway

here is the link to the fiscal council report
http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/fiscal-asse ... mber-2012/

Now correct me if I'm wrong the budget is predicated on a troika-agreed 3.5bn of consolidation to get down sliced 1.25 in tax increases, and 2.25 in cuts. ( and Kenny, Noonan have said at the moment they only want to get 500 million out of property tax ) - you can get this stuff from from the EAP review.

That graph looks like it will = 1bn by budget. Therefore they will either roll the deficit into 2013 and start ( E.g HSE new budget = (already cut 2013 budget LESS those cuts you couldn't do in 2012 ) OR we see other cuts OR we see unplanned tax hikes to fix the issue

- and that's only to fix 2013 - what do they to to fix the 2012 problem. According to that the DSP and HSE will run out of cash in mid-November so they cannot do nothing.

My guess for 2013 - we will see soon some serious groaning out of Finance and I think the rhetoric around the property tax rate , and any tax talks will become extremely stony-faced. This also has the potential to be a Croke Park breacher unless they get it in check


in trying to figure this out we see that HSE is wonderful and publishing statistics, and DSP is brutal . HSE do a detailed monthly update for the amount of money get DSP should be shot.


Tell me I'm wrong. The only other option I can see is to do a mini-Greece and ignore the problem

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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 11:07 am 
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Property Magnate

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Duisigh wrote:
Fuck knows where they'll find it.


Where do you think they will look? PAYE people have been very bad and must be further punished for their heinous crimes of living here and working!

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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:30 pm 
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Duisigh wrote:
Image<a href="http://imgur.com/5yQB9"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/5yQB9.png" alt="" title="Hosted by imgur.com" /></a>

Source is the fiscal council, and given yesterdays numbers out of HSE this is actually going to get much worse.

Hi guys this is or should be a graph of the overrun we are looking at.

If that continues we are going to see an overrun of +1B , which is going to knock any property tax etc into the high end

This is frankly appalling as the troika stuff is locked. Fuck knows where they'll find it.

Well I hope no one on this board is surprised - the money is going to

Doctors, Nurses, HSE executives, Agency staff etc. - all being paid 3 - 4 times more than the slovakian equivalents but Slovakia is bailing Ireland out

Also it is being paid to 100's of o thousands of unemployed people who would be crazy to take ajob for less thatn 40K


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:18 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Expect a possible supp. estimate soon or the numbers ain't gonna balance . Reilly and loughlin should really be taking a bullet on this

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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:54 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Duisigh wrote:
Expect a possible supp. estimate soon or the numbers ain't gonna balance . Reilly and loughlin should really be taking a bullet on this


Welfare will have a Supplementary Estimate (their 2nd this year btw after a revision over PRSI) before year end as it is a demand led scheme.

HSE probably won't have a Supp. Estimate, similar to last year, where c. 300m overrun for 2011 was taken off their 2012 budget. 2012's overrun looks like hitting 500m, so chances are almost no non-emergency medical procedures until Jan and the 500m gets taken of 2013's already reduced budget.


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:59 am 
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TheJackal wrote:
Duisigh wrote:
Expect a possible supp. estimate soon or the numbers ain't gonna balance . Reilly and loughlin should really be taking a bullet on this


Welfare will have a Supplementary Estimate (their 2nd this year btw after a revision over PRSI) before year end as it is a demand led scheme.

HSE probably won't have a Supp. Estimate, similar to last year, where c. 300m overrun for 2011 was taken off their 2012 budget. 2012's overrun looks like hitting 500m, so chances are almost no non-emergency medical procedures until Jan and the 500m gets taken of 2013's already reduced budget.


You were right Duisigh. HSE is getting supplementary budget, as now confirmed by Howlin

http://www.independent.ie/national-news ... 02213.html


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:15 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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Extra €1bn for two departments

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre ... ing29.html

Snuck in yesterday under the radar.

Quote:
The supplement budget for the Department of Social Protection this year is €685 million.

Department of Health is to get a supplementary estimate of €360 million, despite repeated Government promises that no additional funding would be provided to offset its cost overrun.


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:44 am 
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the welfare state model is broken - can't be sustained - UK have realised this too late but are now trying to address it.

It will take an age in Ireland before it is addressed as the culture of dependency suits politicians


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:12 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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By my calculations, Social Protection's spend has been as follows

21.1bn in 2011 (actual)
21.2bn in 2012 (estimate, by adding announced 685M to orginal budget of €20.546bn)
20.5bn in 2013 (estimate)

2012 is HIGHER than 2011 and the Gov says their measures are working!


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:06 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Didn't the troika haul them up over this in the unpublished last report ?

"Seriously lads - 400 million over ... ? " where do you magic this stuff up from. Half the point of the last few years was to put systems and procedures in to avoid EXACTLY this, and reilly and loughlin swore fuckin blind they wouldn't go over ( remember this is their first full year and they got a bye last year because they said it was the other crowd's fault )

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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:22 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

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Location: The Second Æther! Hull Breach Imminent, Eschaton Immanent...
Tyler wrote:
the welfare state model is broken - can't be sustained - UK have realised this too late but are now trying to address it.


I'm not saying it's not broken... but where do you see the key problem to be so certain of this?


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 Post subject: Re: Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:27 pm 
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not sure where you go but 33bn in taxes to end of November and SW spend is 21.2bn

Comes a point where people working cannot keep subsidising a lifestyle that is not that much worse than they have

the gap between life you have working and life you have not working is getting too narrow


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