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Public Emotional response to the house market
Optimism 12%  12%  [ 10 ]
Excitement 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Thrill 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Euphoria 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Anxiety 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Denial 20%  20%  [ 17 ]
Fear 5%  5%  [ 4 ]
Desperation 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Panic 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Capitulation 6%  6%  [ 5 ]
Despondency 14%  14%  [ 12 ]
Depression 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Hope 24%  24%  [ 20 ]
Relief 5%  5%  [ 4 ]
Total votes : 83
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 Post subject: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:58 pm 
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Well I can't find Q2 2013 but there you are.

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Jan 2013

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:09 pm 
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Optimism.

Think the bottom was hit early last year in Dublin,fingers crossed anyway,I bet the house on it. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:21 am 
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I don't think that series accurately reflects how things have moved here, and doesn't really have predictive value.

However, if I had to pick somewhere on that though I'd say denial/fear. There have been practically no repossessions yet, and people are still convinced that they'll be able to keep the property that they can't afford. They were protected by a technicality until now. The Freemen have their magic incantations. The "where's my NAMA" brigade have Pat Kenny to help them blame the banks. There is as yet no general acceptance that people will have to give back what they can't afford.

At the same time, there's some who have jumped straight to "hope" that it's all over and "normal" market bouyancy is returning. I'd argue that they're actually in denial though.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:38 am 
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I still think there are two (or three) markets in Ireland, and indeed in every city/town/area within that of:
- the buoyant/bouncing SCD type desirable market where property is being chased up by people with cash/resources
- the rest where houses are slow to move and are reasonably priced
- (and the third where there is total oversupply and is being held off the market, ghost estates etc.)

I would like to see some proper analysis of this, or international comparisons including historical outcomes.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:14 am 
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nespotm wrote:
I still think there are two (or three) markets in Ireland, and indeed in every city/town/area within that of:


I am really ambivalent about this. It is certainly the line being touted by the mainstream media, but I wonder... I think it might be as simple as "people don't want shitty property any more".

This makes sense if you think about it... most sales transactions used to be people buying property as a short-term investment for capital appreciation. During the CT, even people buying a family home would expect to be upgrading in a few years. Now people, both owner occupiers and investors, are realising that there will be little or no capital appreciation for at least 10 years. So they're buying things that are actually good, and not buying shit.

So I would be surprised if there's not "two markets" for investment apartments in Dublin; and two markets for family homes in Galway; and two markets in every other sector. But the volumes in some of these are absolutely tiny so hard to track.

IMHO, the media and VIs are trying to spin it to create a mini-bubble in SCD, because they think they can, and creating bubble is all they know. It is doomed to fail though -- the only reason there's been some market activity there IMHO is that prices dipped to a level where some people who had cash, and were previously unable to even contemplate living in SCD, were able to bid. If prices actually rise in SCD, these people will go back to looking elsewhere -- or run out of cash. Either way, any bubble (if in fact it exists) will be temporary.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:28 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
I don't think that series accurately reflects how things have moved here, and doesn't really have predictive value.

However, if I had to pick somewhere on that though I'd say denial/fear. There have been practically no repossessions yet, and people are still convinced that they'll be able to keep the property that they can't afford. They were protected by a technicality until now. The Freemen have their magic incantations. The "where's my NAMA" brigade have Pat Kenny to help them blame the banks. There is as yet no general acceptance that people will have to give back what they can't afford.

At the same time, there's some who have jumped straight to "hope" that it's all over and "normal" market bouyancy is returning. I'd argue that they're actually in denial though.

I'd argue that when people bought these houses during the boom, their society told them something, even promised them something, so that they would buy. - Essentially, that they were doing the financially responsible, grown-up thing, that they could not lose, that they were partaking in the great Irish dream, so to speak. Politically, everything that has happened since the market collapsed, has been done to try and repair that broken promise.

The 'moral right' that our political, financial, institutional and media establishment feels it has, in its efforts to make good on that promise has been barely shaken. With the courage of their convictions, they will continue to try and drive property prices upwwards, drawing on every device available to them. They will do everything i their power to avoid anything happening that will make the suckers they need to sell to today and tomorrow doubt further the great Irish property dream that is the basis of their insidious proposition.

In that context, I choose 'hope' - hope that the political establishment will find a way to re-deliver on the promise that if you buy a house, if you play your small part in the rentier capitalism that forms the very foundation of this state - if you give your tacit consent to allowing a paradigm where some parts of our society are allowed to garner significant amount of profit without worthwhile contribution to our society - in return you are promised a small section of that pie eventually. This forms the fundamental social contract in our country.

I see out there 'hope' that they will have their pie again, through a combination of property prices 'recovering' eventually to near 2007 values, together with debt forbearance and/or forgiveness arrangements (eg. likely to be a 'split' mortgage, where you pay a mortgage based on today's market value, and you pay the rest of your mortgage at such time as your house value has recovered to a level above the value of the 'full' mortgage... This is the understanding I see out there - people know that they will not be made pay the 'parked' part of their mortgage unless there has been a full 'recovery' and even then, sure they might get away with not paying it, after enoough time has passed.)

There is 'hope' that the Irish mentality around property will prevail, unchallenged, again. - That politics in league with industry will succeed in a strategy of driving prices higher. That hope is becoming stronger and stronger.

Although in my view, that chart is a load of bollox in the context of the Irish psyche, and in the context of the reality that market cycle plays second fiddle to political-industrial process in this country. There is only 'hope' in the political-industrial process as it pertains to the Irish property market, and what we are talking about is the character of that hope - whether it is characterised by fear, or confidence, or denial, or optimism etc. That characterisation is more a function of the politics rather than the market.

I'd say the 'hope' in the political-industrial process is becoming stronger and more 'optimistic'. The political-industrial process is clearly over the worst, and is prevailing in every kind of manner.

EDIT Link: Insight into the evolution of the real estate business in Ireland...


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:28 am 
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29 votes cast and 61% believe we are somewhere on the upward portion of the curve.

I think there is a Dublin bias at play here as I believe rural prices have some way to fall yet.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:12 am 
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Quote:
Although in my view, that chart is a load of bollox in the context of the Irish psyche, and in the context of the reality that market cycle plays second fiddle to political-industrial process in this country. There is only 'hope' in the political-industrial process as it pertains to the Irish property market, and what we are talking about is the character of that hope - whether it is characterised by fear, or confidence, or denial, or optimism etc. That characterisation is more a function of the politics rather than the market.

I'd say the 'hope' in the political-industrial process is becoming stronger and more 'optimistic'. The political-industrial process is clearly over the worst, and is prevailing in every kind of manner.

EDIT Link: Insight into the evolution of the real estate business in Ireland...

This sounds intelligent and the author seems to know what he's talking about so I'm dispatching it to GCHQ immediately to have it decoded.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:31 pm 
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SamG wrote:
Quote:
Although in my view, that chart is a load of bollox in the context of the Irish psyche, and in the context of the reality that market cycle plays second fiddle to political-industrial process in this country. There is only 'hope' in the political-industrial process as it pertains to the Irish property market, and what we are talking about is the character of that hope - whether it is characterised by fear, or confidence, or denial, or optimism etc. That characterisation is more a function of the politics rather than the market.

I'd say the 'hope' in the political-industrial process is becoming stronger and more 'optimistic'. The political-industrial process is clearly over the worst, and is prevailing in every kind of manner.

EDIT Link: Insight into the evolution of the real estate business in Ireland...

This sounds intelligent and the author seems to know what he's talking about so I'm dispatching it to GCHQ immediately to have it decoded.


My head hurts. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:50 pm 
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Denial (delusion)

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:18 pm 
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Looking at the present situation I would say that the national situation with prices is that they are bumping along the bottom. I remember looking at past booms here and in the UK and reckoning that this phase would last at least 4 years. I think outside of the exceptional areas (and I'll come to them in a minute) the mood is of capitulation/despondency -it certainly is in rural and small town Ireland. The point of most opportunity in these places might be approaching now but you would be foolish to partake in it as it will probably be a very long time before there will be a chance to make a return. This also means that you can take your time and see whats still standing if prices and rents start to rise. So I think the national mood is capitulation and go for that.

The SCD boom is hardly surprising. It is (just as it has always been) the area in which most people want to live. It's because they want to live with the people that they see as their peers - in some cases that view of just who their peers are may well be an aspiration (in either a social or a financial sense). The thing is that there is always a market in SCD because it's viewed as the top of the tree - just in the same way as there is always a market for Maseratis (there might be fewer sold but the price never comes down in absoulute terms). The problem is that the perception is that the 'only' place that any self-respecting person could live - everywhere outside of it is a skanger-ridden hell pock-marked with burned out cars and discarded needles. This has upped the stakes - 'how could you even think of bringing your children up any where else?'.

We can't all live in SCD so there has to be a discriminating factor to decide who does - and its price. The more hype there is about SCD the more people want to live there - and by God there's hype at the moment. This hype is also sending another, subtler, message - it's saying to people - 'look - even in the worst recession, a recession that is still ongoing, house prices in SCD can rise, your investment will be safe here, you can afford to take a risk'. So those that can, will push out the boat to get their SCD house. It's the same pressure as the 'you've got to get on the ladder, you know property is always a safe bet' mantra that got us into this mess in the first case. The outcome of this is that people are more willing to extend themselves to get in to this market. The banks are not currently playing ball on this - and I think a result is the number of sales that are falling through - the bank will not give you any more than it originally offered. I wonder if this might change - in other words banks might conciously up valuations of SCD properties to 'reduce' their risk and win a 'sale' in a competitive environment - making the same errors as before - seeing property as a 'safe' bet - but basing that security on an inflated valuation. They must also be factoring in that the Governments actions are all in favour of maintaining high property prices and that the national conversation is all about a 'recovery' in prices - a tacit admission that high house prices are a good thing. This was certainly something I had not foreseen - I thought that the lesson would be properly learned.


When I look at the prices for the properties that I would have loved to buy back in the early 90s they look laughable now and people might say - 'for the sake of 30k you lost out on that?' - but that 30k was an additional 50% on what the building society would have lent me. So in todays terms I had loan approval for 350k and was looking at trying to buy a house for 600k - a situation that I would imagine prevails in a lot of cases where people are looking at SCD properties nowadays.

So I gave up and bought outside of the areas I favoured. There were a lot of people who, like me, couldn't afford that extra 30k, so we all ended up in the same kinds of places, meaning that I ended up in an area that began to be populated by my peers - so I didn't feel I had compromised, or that I was living in an 'inferior' area. My kids went to school with kids whose parents were nice middle class people like us. We all moved there at the same time - just before we had kids. The local schools were probably a different place at the time that we moved there - I don't think they were bad - they were probably better by being more mixed socially - but that doesn't go down well with many people nowadays I'm afraid. Interestingly some of the people that were my peers, and who did take a risk, or had assets to do so and bought the more expensive houses, are in trouble now because they took that same risk later on either on moving up to bigger houses or getting into the 'Borrow-To-Let' market.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:46 pm 
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metalmike wrote:

The SCD boom is hardly surprising. It is (just as it has always been) the area in which most people want to live. It's because they want to live with the people that they see as their peers - in some cases that view of just who their peers are may well be an aspiration (in either a social or a financial sense). The thing is that there is always a market in SCD because it's viewed as the top of the tree - just in the same way as there is always a market for Maseratis (there might be fewer sold but the price never comes down in absoulute terms). The problem is that the perception is that the 'only' place that any self-respecting person could live - everywhere outside of it is a skanger-ridden hell pock-marked with burned out cars and discarded needles. This has upped the stakes - 'how could you even think of bringing your children up any where else?'.

We can't all live in SCD so there has to be a discriminating factor to decide who does - and its price. The more hype there is about SCD the more people want to live there - and by God there's hype at the moment. This hype is also sending another, subtler, message - it's saying to people - 'look - even in the worst recession, a recession that is still ongoing, house prices in SCD can rise, your investment will be safe here, you can afford to take a risk'. So those that can, will push out the boat to get their SCD house. It's the same pressure as the 'you've got to get on the ladder, you know property is always a safe bet' mantra that got us into this mess in the first case. The outcome of this is that people are more willing to extend themselves to get in to this market. The banks are not currently playing ball on this - and I think a result is the number of sales that are falling through - the bank will not give you any more than it originally offered. I wonder if this might change - in other words banks might conciously up valuations of SCD properties to 'reduce' their risk and win a 'sale' in a competitive environment - making the same errors as before - seeing property as a 'safe' bet - but basing that security on an inflated valuation. They must also be factoring in that the Governments actions are all in favour of maintaining high property prices and that the national conversation is all about a 'recovery' in prices - a tacit admission that high house prices are a good thing. This was certainly something I had not foreseen - I thought that the lesson would be properly learned.



No, the SCD strength is a measure of the concentration of political and economic power in the hands of a small minority and a lack of change pre/post boom. Its a measure of how cosetted the elites in this country by the political hegemony of FF/FG and a craven labour party in government.

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 4:22 pm 
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Coincidentally, there's an article in today's New York Times about the psychology of the Irish crash


Quote:
Throughout the economic boom, the politicians and bankers and property developers, along with the news media, were telling all of us that cause and effect were perfectly, inextricably linked: “If you buy a vastly overpriced and shoddily built house in the middle of nowhere, the economy will keep growing, and in a few years your house’s value will have doubled, and you can sell it to some other sucker and buy something you actually want and live happily ever after and UTOPIA!!!” It was as simple and certain as sticking a coin into a vending machine: insert Action X, and the life machine will inevitably whir and beep and spit out Future Y.

THE Irish are notoriously cynical, but the Utopia myth hit at exactly the moment when we were most open to unquestioning belief. The majority of Irish people were so desperately poor, for most of the country’s history, that when suddenly we weren’t broke any longer, the cynicism was washed away by the flood of prosperity. We needed to believe that the Celtic Tiger hadn’t simply wandered in, because that would mean it could wander out again. We needed to believe that we had somehow made it happen, and that therefore there were things we could do, like buying overpriced houses, to make it keep happening. We needed, basically, to believe in that chain of action and consequence.

And so the Irish tendency to raise an eyebrow at anything that’s presented as certain paradise dissolved just at the moment when it was needed most.


(disclaimer: I know the author)

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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:12 pm 
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Went for a leisurely cycle around Moycullen (Galway) today, I Cycled past at least 30 empties'/partially constructed properties.

The jokers are asking €140k for a crappy, smalland derelict bungalow (http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=725602) 6 miles from town, and that is one of the cheapest on the area! Add to that the number of underwater owners who are visibly living in houses with unfinished driveways, clapped out bangers and unloved gardens who are obviously waiting for the repo men to com I would guess at denial.

Throw in a good mix of these and I am sure I have enough evidence of denial:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=452612
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=161664
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=392507
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=442994

Jack up interest rates to 6%, start the repos and put these people out of their misery.

On another note. You could measure denial by plotting sales prices sold against asking price. Example of there are 5,000 properties asking >500k, but only 500 have sold in the last year then you would have an index value of 20 for that area.


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 Post subject: Re: Q3 2013 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:14 pm 
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http://www.japlandic.com/2013/07/cso-rp ... l?spref=tw


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