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 Post subject: Property Planning and Building
PostPosted: Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:23 am 
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Introduction

This is a very brief attempt to assess the number of housing units actually built compared to those granted planning permission. It is similar to trying to reconcile actual property prices from asking prices.

There are lots of issues with the source data that I have neither the time nor the interest to resolve. So this analysis is presented as-is.

Make of it whatever you wish.

The data is taken from two sources:

1. Department of the Environment housing units built numbers - Latest House Building and Private Rented Statistics - http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/S ... 293,en.xls

2. Central Statistics Office planning permissions granted series - BHA02: Planning Permissions Granted for New Houses and Apartments by Type of Dwelling, Region and County, Year and Statistic - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire ... =0&PXSId=0

The Department of the Environment housing units built numbers is derived from new connections from ESN Networks.

BHA02 lists four types of planning permission:

1. Houses
2. Multi development houses
3. One off houses
4. Private flats/apartments

Houses is the sum of Multi development houses and One off houses.

Planning Permissions Granted

BHA02 lists the number of planning permissions granted and the number of units in those permissions.

This table shows the number of housing units for which planning permission was granted in the years 2001 to 2014.

Code:
                           2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
Carlow                       915   1,048   1,752   1,108   1,739   1,707   1,832   1,153     708     191     167      41      40      52  12,453
Cavan                      2,227   1,966   1,906   2,939   3,200   3,082   2,386   1,767     692     450     111      57      46      52  20,881
Clare                      2,004   1,571   2,192   2,190   2,161   1,710   2,797   1,821     986     462     233     148     121     140  18,536
Cork                       7,131   6,933   6,822   7,543  12,153   8,402   9,882   5,773   3,782   1,064   1,278     622     582     752  72,719
Donegal                    3,813   3,100   3,822   5,302   5,423   4,875   3,869   4,454   1,533   1,290     667     415     311     239  39,113
Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown     2,441   2,478   2,123   3,383   2,119   1,291   2,386   3,301     639   1,446     936     206     252     485  23,486
Fingal                     5,170   6,816   8,609   5,827   3,693   2,667   2,765   3,285   2,567   1,586     472     605   1,411     978  46,451
Galway                     3,922   2,746   3,181   4,225   4,168   3,774   4,300   2,290   1,656     801     444     278     215     267  32,267
Kerry                      3,171   2,206   2,514   3,747   3,661   3,380   3,046   2,058   1,246     364     241     243     196     254  26,327
Kildare                    3,757   1,990   2,436   4,282   4,011   2,615   3,959   2,188   1,833   1,021     190     122     307     317  29,028
Kilkenny                   1,181   1,376   1,747   3,263   2,372   1,933   1,494   1,624     738     201     306     121     500     123  16,979
Laois                      1,595   1,919   1,231   3,155   3,077   2,602   2,021   1,539   2,001     199     135      69      59      50  19,652
Leitrim                    1,203     729     582   1,441   1,784     827     508     604     155      50      44      18      23       8   7,976
Limerick                   1,881   3,300   2,183   3,139   3,318   2,341   2,040   1,526   1,203     483     196     212     158     195  22,175
Longford                   1,476     728     474     996   3,665     778     967     452     199      58      37      43      41      21   9,935
Louth                      2,521   1,291   1,707   1,511   2,860   2,223   3,368   6,320   2,764     700     239     308      93     158  26,063
Mayo                       2,455   2,194   2,195   3,839   3,153   2,962   2,188   1,735   1,161     522     336     186     158     168  23,252
Meath                      3,959   3,303   3,514   3,772   4,385   2,330   4,380   1,934   1,618   1,385     850     222     302     528  32,482
Monaghan                     984   1,114     898   1,626   2,415   1,203   1,854   1,186   1,002     607     149     112      93     118  13,361
North Tipperary            1,239   1,088   1,034   2,224   1,260     796   1,437     929     545     422     163      83      73      71  11,364
Offaly                     1,732   1,880     996   1,701   1,459   2,221   2,165   1,331     544     133     198      64      50      84  14,558
Roscommon                  1,679   1,120   1,641   2,320   3,270   2,135   1,376   1,109     327     162     108     105      45     132  15,529
Sligo                      1,385   1,147   1,126   1,754   2,901   1,058   1,471     761   1,502     265     160      81      67      60  13,738
South Dublin               2,557   2,119   3,859   3,226   1,977   3,049   3,175   1,311     621     218     991     440     556     352  24,451
South Tipperary            1,118     820     968   1,366   2,592   1,563   2,062   1,971     613     410     147      68      72      81  13,851
Waterford                  1,016     959   1,316   1,259     852   1,016   1,690   1,277     387     156     209      73     114     102  10,426
Westmeath                  1,332   1,740   1,222   2,018   2,367   1,883   1,326   2,050     430     146     212     229      80      65  15,100
Wexford                    3,809   1,623   1,907   4,554   3,048   3,409   4,635   2,533   1,348     666     516     228     211     305  28,792
Wicklow                    1,167   3,408   1,246   1,637   2,369   2,736   1,506   2,499   2,054   1,124     115     153     116     190  20,320
City Councils
Cork City                  1,376     610   1,510   1,707     986     944     955     470   1,043     338      34      56      71      61  10,161
Dublin City                5,080   3,844   8,483  11,760   5,444   5,100   4,868   3,874   3,949   1,403   1,537     443     779     937  57,501
Galway City                1,426     946     665   1,522     666     794   1,184     704     262      82      62     144      49      65   8,571
Limerick City                717     571   1,327     399     455     138     177     663     106      55      60       5       4       0   4,677
Waterford City             1,070     631   1,166     918     349   1,211     327   1,092     342      18     102      50       4       1   7,281

All Dublin                15,248  15,257  23,074  24,196  13,233  12,107  13,194  11,771   7,776   4,653   3,936   1,694   2,998   2,752 151,889

State                     78,509  69,314  78,354 101,653  99,352  78,755  84,396  67,584  40,556  18,478  11,645   6,250   7,199   7,411 749,456


I have summed the values for the four Dublin councils in the All Dublin line.

This table shows the percentage of units granted permission in Dublin relative to the total number of units:

Code:
                           2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
% Dublin                  19.42%  22.01%  29.45%  23.80%  13.32%  15.37%  15.63%  17.42%  19.17%  25.18%  33.80%  27.10%  41.64%  37.13%  20.27%


Despite having over one third of the population as well as a large transient population that gives rise to a demand for rented accommodation, the number of housing units granted planning permission in Dublin generally is far short of one third.

Housing Units Built

This table shows the number of housing units built over the same interval:

Code:
                           2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
Carlow                       658     695     897   1,152   1,200   1,321   1,143     635     423     230     189     116     169     169   8,997
Cavan                        883   1,163   1,154   1,707   2,129   2,689   2,108   1,062     561     296     272     193     173     259  14,649
Clare                      1,487   1,466   1,679   1,831   2,174   2,727   2,286   1,393     765     592     294     256     215     310  17,475
Cork                       4,838   4,754   6,325   5,912   7,158   8,076   7,477   5,091   2,641   1,698   1,332     965     863     998  58,128
Donegal                    2,722   2,765   3,120   2,812   3,667   4,387   4,164   2,576   1,689     825     610     511     400     439  30,687
Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown     1,166     785   1,871   1,777   1,867   2,472   3,052   2,087     952     384     192     175     260     713  17,753
Fingal                     3,602   4,308   7,019   7,734   5,672   5,863   4,725   2,149   1,309     540     662     364     395     809  45,151
Galway                     2,467   2,265   3,170   3,392   3,537   4,512   3,849   2,332   1,273     825     620     467     426     499  29,634
Kerry                      1,813   1,838   2,667   2,742   3,183   3,953   2,678   1,961     866     546     387     348     331     309  23,622
Kildare                    2,426   3,126   2,971   3,479   3,584   4,804   3,118   1,811   1,006     615     407     372     447     548  28,714
Kilkenny                   1,007   1,119   1,183   1,384   1,374   1,769   1,544   1,142     472     343     290     157     179     179  12,142
Laois                      1,027     862   1,031   1,626   1,802   2,244   2,177   1,156     523     236     205     239     188     189  13,505
Leitrim                      750     691     708     844     860   1,545     975     647     303     142     125      86      90      86   7,852
Limerick                     754   1,452   1,835   1,782   2,182   2,624   2,442   1,572     713     435     304     230     235     249  16,809
Longford                     614     735     659     909     973   1,328   1,579     584     445     152      89     115      90     129   8,401
Louth                      2,046   1,923   2,288   2,328   2,195   2,251   1,654   1,413     763     404     257     269     310     326  18,427
Mayo                       1,790   1,694   2,022   2,235   2,401   3,079   2,442   1,774   1,032     617     470     290     312     380  20,538
Meath                      2,553   2,924   3,687   3,550   3,886   3,746   2,427   1,946   1,062     619     369     353     286     403  27,811
Monaghan                     685     611     660     727     953   1,406   1,042     674     417     208     164     149     150     142   7,988
North Tipperary            1,006   1,263   1,257   1,851   1,309   1,426   1,041     978     598     302     256     151     132      58  11,628
Offaly                       945     853   1,308   1,516   1,202   1,594   1,217     857     384     252     187     145     117     130  10,707
Roscommon                    500     740     890   1,170   1,316   2,184   1,424   1,043     465     319     212     145     174     174  10,756
Sligo                        778     755   1,065   1,312   1,164   2,164   1,269     924     484     223     224     265     161     145  10,933
South Dublin               1,746   3,406   2,134   2,769   3,456   3,389   3,270   1,758     632     405     160     220     203     832  24,380
South Tipperary              546     589     646     631   1,439   1,590   1,290     890     424     291     193     113     134     215   8,991
Waterford                  1,000   1,324   1,171   1,248   1,369   1,511   1,235     950     521     332     196     162     123     193  11,335
Westmeath                  1,517   1,187   1,585   2,125   1,634   1,704   1,708   1,146     506     334     212     169     158     217  14,202
Wexford                    1,955   2,342   2,743   3,043   3,180   3,391   3,194   1,998   1,024     659     435     305     306     455  25,030
Wicklow                    1,914   2,002   1,800   2,076   2,341   1,967   1,704   1,219     700     394     284     217     257     245  17,120
City Councils
Cork City                    752     812   1,053   2,364   1,684   1,065   1,209   1,001     666     242     127     248     238     155  11,616
Dublin City                3,091   4,124   3,370   4,530   7,024   7,746   6,678   5,348   2,395     911     557     507     502     914  47,697
Galway City                1,436   1,496   2,305   1,549   1,126   1,275     732     545     199      77      72      32      83      87  11,014
Limerick City              1,326     766   1,150   1,324     961     389     334     365      93      44      43      99     106      21   7,021
Waterford City               402     460     996   1,123     555     828     440     297     114     110      84      55      88      39   5,591

All Dublin                 9,605  12,623  14,394  16,810  18,019  19,470  17,725  11,342   5,288   2,240   1,571   1,266   1,360   3,268 134,981

State                     52,202  57,295  68,419  76,554  80,557  93,019  77,627  51,324  26,420  14,602  10,480   8,488   8,301  11,016 636,304


This table shows the percentage of units built in Dublin relative to the total number of units:

Code:
                           2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
% Dublin                  18.40%  22.03%  21.04%  21.96%  22.37%  20.93%  22.83%  22.10%  20.02%  15.34%  14.99%  14.92%  16.38%  29.67%  21.21


Again, despite having over one third of the population as well as a large transient population that gives rise to a demand for rented accommodation, the number of housing units built in Dublin generally is far short of one third.

This table shows the numbers of houses and apartments and their average sizes for Dublin and the State granted planning permission over the same interval:

Code:
Dublin                     2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
Houses Units               6,496   7,055   6,887   6,097   4,377   3,698   4,283   3,656   2,066   1,032   1,905   1,095   2,084   2,238  52,969
Average Size               128.4   113.1   108.1   112.7   126.6   137.7   155.3   163.4   147.8   161.8     131   152.1   142.1   154.1   130.6
Apartment Units            8,752   8,202  16,187  18,099   8,856   8,409   8,911   8,115   5,710   3,621   2,031     599     914     514  98,920
Average Size                79.8    80.9    79.6      76    77.1    84.3    85.7    84.2    95.5    92.6   104.8    99.6     107    89.3    82.5
% Units Apartments        57.40%  53.76%  70.15%  74.80%  66.92%  69.46%  67.54%  68.94%  73.43%  77.82%  51.60%  35.36%  30.49%  18.68%  65.13%

State                      2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
Houses Units              60,729  51,055  49,605  69,576  75,650  60,008  62,828  47,806  26,814  11,604   9,098   5,389   6,002   6,626 542,790
Average Size               149.1   143.6   147.1   147.9   149.1   158.7   163.9   168.6   171.3   190.3   187.5     206   193.5   190.3   156.9
Apartment Units           17,780  18,259  28,749  32,077  23,702  18,747  21,569  19,778  13,742   6,874   2,547     861   1,197     785 206,667
Average Size                78.2    77.9    79.3    76.7    78.2    81.1      85    85.4    93.6    91.5   103.2      93     103    88.3    81.8
% Units Apartments        22.65%  26.34%  36.69%  31.56%  23.86%  23.80%  25.56%  29.26%  33.88%  37.20%  21.87%  13.78%  16.63%  10.59%  27.58%


Now, granted planning permission is not the same as built.

However, most units granted planning permission in Dublin are apartments, though the proportion has dropped considerably in the last three years.

The reverse is true for the State where most units granted planning permission are houses.

So the accommodation capacity of what is being granted planning permission, and, by inference, what is being built in Dublin is less than elsewhere.

Housing Units Granted Planning Permission Subsequently Built

In my view, this is the most surprising table. This shows the number of housing units built as a percentage of the number of units granted planning permission.

Code:
                           2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   Total
Carlow                     71.9%   66.3%   51.2%  104.0%   69.0%   77.4%   62.4%   55.1%   59.7%  120.4%  113.2%  282.9%  422.5%  325.0%   72.2%
Cavan                      39.6%   59.2%   60.5%   58.1%   66.5%   87.2%   88.3%   60.1%   81.1%   65.8%  245.0%  338.6%  376.1%  498.1%   70.2%
Clare                      74.2%   93.3%   76.6%   83.6%  100.6%  159.5%   81.7%   76.5%   77.6%  128.1%  126.2%  173.0%  177.7%  221.4%   94.3%
Cork                       67.8%   68.6%   92.7%   78.4%   58.9%   96.1%   75.7%   88.2%   69.8%  159.6%  104.2%  155.1%  148.3%  132.7%   79.9%
Donegal                    71.4%   89.2%   81.6%   53.0%   67.6%   90.0%  107.6%   57.8%  110.2%   64.0%   91.5%  123.1%  128.6%  183.7%   78.5%
Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown     47.8%   31.7%   88.1%   52.5%   88.1%  191.5%  127.9%   63.2%  149.0%   26.6%   20.5%   85.0%  103.2%  147.0%   75.6%
Fingal                     69.7%   63.2%   81.5%  132.7%  153.6%  219.8%  170.9%   65.4%   51.0%   34.0%  140.3%   60.2%   28.0%   82.7%   97.2%
Galway                     62.9%   82.5%   99.7%   80.3%   84.9%  119.6%   89.5%  101.8%   76.9%  103.0%  139.6%  168.0%  198.1%  186.9%   91.8%
Kerry                      57.2%   83.3%  106.1%   73.2%   86.9%  117.0%   87.9%   95.3%   69.5%  150.0%  160.6%  143.2%  168.9%  121.7%   89.7%
Kildare                    64.6%  157.1%  122.0%   81.2%   89.4%  183.7%   78.8%   82.8%   54.9%   60.2%  214.2%  304.9%  145.6%  172.9%   98.9%
Kilkenny                   85.3%   81.3%   67.7%   42.4%   57.9%   91.5%  103.3%   70.3%   64.0%  170.6%   94.8%  129.8%   35.8%  145.5%   71.5%
Laois                      64.4%   44.9%   83.8%   51.5%   58.6%   86.2%  107.7%   75.1%   26.1%  118.6%  151.9%  346.4%  318.6%  378.0%   68.7%
Leitrim                    62.3%   94.8%  121.6%   58.6%   48.2%  186.8%  191.9%  107.1%  195.5%  284.0%  284.1%  477.8%  391.3% 1075.0%   98.4%
Limerick                   40.1%   44.0%   84.1%   56.8%   65.8%  112.1%  119.7%  103.0%   59.3%   90.1%  155.1%  108.5%  148.7%  127.7%   75.8%
Longford                   41.6%  101.0%  139.0%   91.3%   26.5%  170.7%  163.3%  129.2%  223.6%  262.1%  240.5%  267.4%  219.5%  614.3%   84.6%
Louth                      81.2%  149.0%  134.0%  154.1%   76.7%  101.3%   49.1%   22.4%   27.6%   57.7%  107.5%   87.3%  333.3%  206.3%   70.7%
Mayo                       72.9%   77.2%   92.1%   58.2%   76.1%  104.0%  111.6%  102.2%   88.9%  118.2%  139.9%  155.9%  197.5%  226.2%   88.3%
Meath                      64.5%   88.5%  104.9%   94.1%   88.6%  160.8%   55.4%  100.6%   65.6%   44.7%   43.4%  159.0%   94.7%   76.3%   85.6%
Monaghan                   69.6%   54.8%   73.5%   44.7%   39.5%  116.9%   56.2%   56.8%   41.6%   34.3%  110.1%  133.0%  161.3%  120.3%   59.8%
North Tipperary            81.2%  116.1%  121.6%   83.2%  103.9%  179.1%   72.4%  105.3%  109.7%   71.6%  157.1%  181.9%  180.8%   81.7%  102.3%
Offaly                     54.6%   45.4%  131.3%   89.1%   82.4%   71.8%   56.2%   64.4%   70.6%  189.5%   94.4%  226.6%  234.0%  154.8%   73.5%
Roscommon                  29.8%   66.1%   54.2%   50.4%   40.2%  102.3%  103.5%   94.0%  142.2%  196.9%  196.3%  138.1%  386.7%  131.8%   69.3%
Sligo                      56.2%   65.8%   94.6%   74.8%   40.1%  204.5%   86.3%  121.4%   32.2%   84.2%  140.0%  327.2%  240.3%  241.7%   79.6%
South Dublin               68.3%  160.7%   55.3%   85.8%  174.8%  111.2%  103.0%  134.1%  101.8%  185.8%   16.1%   50.0%   36.5%  236.4%   99.7%
South Tipperary            48.8%   71.8%   66.7%   46.2%   55.5%  101.7%   62.6%   45.2%   69.2%   71.0%  131.3%  166.2%  186.1%  265.4%   64.9%
Waterford                  98.4%  138.1%   89.0%   99.1%  160.7%  148.7%   73.1%   74.4%  134.6%  212.8%   93.8%  221.9%  107.9%  189.2%  108.7%
Westmeath                 113.9%   68.2%  129.7%  105.3%   69.0%   90.5%  128.8%   55.9%  117.7%  228.8%  100.0%   73.8%  197.5%  333.8%   94.1%
Wexford                    51.3%  144.3%  143.8%   66.8%  104.3%   99.5%   68.9%   78.9%   76.0%   98.9%   84.3%  133.8%  145.0%  149.2%   86.9%
Wicklow                   164.0%   58.7%  144.5%  126.8%   98.8%   71.9%  113.1%   48.8%   34.1%   35.1%  247.0%  141.8%  221.6%  128.9%   84.3%
City Councils
Cork City                  54.7%  133.1%   69.7%  138.5%  170.8%  112.8%  126.6%  213.0%   63.9%   71.6%  373.5%  442.9%  335.2%  254.1%  114.3%
Dublin City                60.8%  107.3%   39.7%   38.5%  129.0%  151.9%  137.2%  138.0%   60.6%   64.9%   36.2%  114.4%   64.4%   97.5%   82.9%
Galway City               100.7%  158.1%  346.6%  101.8%  169.1%  160.6%   61.8%   77.4%   76.0%   93.9%  116.1%   22.2%  169.4%  133.8%  128.5%
Limerick City             184.9%  134.2%   86.7%  331.8%  211.2%  281.9%  188.7%   55.1%   87.7%   80.0%   71.7% 1980.0% 2650.0%          150.1%
Waterford City             37.6%   72.9%   85.4%  122.3%  159.0%   68.4%  134.6%   27.2%   33.3%  611.1%   82.4%  110.0% 2200.0% 3900.0%   76.8%

All Dublin                62.99%  82.74%  62.38%  69.47% 136.17% 160.82% 134.34%  96.36%  68.00%  48.14%  39.91%  74.73%  45.36% 118.75%  88.87%

State                     66.49%  82.66%  87.32%  75.31%  81.08% 118.11%  91.98%  75.94%  65.14%  79.02%  90.00% 135.81% 115.31% 148.64%  84.90%


Because planning permissions last a number of years, the percentage built as a percentage of permissions granted in a given year can be over 100%. However, the long-term average should not. The long-term averages for Galway City of 128.5% and Limerick City of 150.1% should not occur. This may be a result of housing units be classified as Limerick for planning and Limerick City for ESB Networks connections.

With the publically available data, it is not possible to analyse this in terms of houses and apartments and actual numbers that can be accommodated in the units built.

The long-term number of 84.9% of units being granted planning permission actually being built from 2001 to 2014 seems, to me, very high. Intuitively, I would have thought that a higher proportion of planning permissions sought would have been speculative and/or would not have been proceeded with.

Clearly, common sense and the lack of need for housing units outside Dublin did not play a significant role in the decision-making of planners and developers.

Dublin Population Growth and Property Construction

This table shows the population of Dublin and the numbers of housing units permitted and built from 2001 to 2014:

Code:
                        2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    Total
Population               1108200 1122800 1133200 1144800 1160600 1183400 1231200 1252700 1258500 1259600 1261500 1262900 1262400 1274600
Population Increase               14,600  10,400  11,600  15,800  22,800  47,800  21,500   5,800   1,100   1,900   1,400    -500  12,200 166,400
Housing Units Permitted   15,248  15,257  23,074  24,196  13,233  12,107  13,194  11,771   7,776   4,653   3,936   1,694   2,998   2,752 151,889
Housing Units Built        9,605  12,623  14,394  16,810  18,019  19,470  17,725  11,342   5,288   2,240   1,571   1,266   1,360   3,268 134,981


In the interval, the population increased by 166,400 and 134,981 units were built of which, from an earlier table, 65.13% were apartments with an average size of 82.5 square meters and 34.87% were houses with an average size of 130.6 square meters. Assuming a capacity of two per apartment and three per house, these new units would have a total capacity of 356,747, much greater than the population increase. Now, these numbers do not take into account factors such as:

1. Housing units decommissioned in the interval, to, for example, allow the new units be built
2. Vacant units
3. Housing shortage at the start of the interval
4. Short-term accommodation requirements
5. Under counting of Dublin population

I have always felt the last factor to be underestimated by state agencies.

Some Conclusions

The total amount of planning permissions granted in the state from 2001 to 2014 is an astonishing 749,456, sufficient to accommodate far more than the population increased or was ever likely to increase.

I repeat that I was surprised at the proportion of property permitted actually built.

I am also surprised at the lack of planning permissions granted where property is actually required – Dublin.

I am also surprised at the lack of property being built in Dublin.

There is a lot of property is areas where it is not needed and will never be needed.

In Dublin in the years 2011 to 2014 1,571, 1,266, 1,360 and 3,268 housing units were built. This is far too low to allow for population growth and property demand.

In Dublin in the years 2011 to 2014 3,936, 1,694, 2,998 and 2,752 housing units were granted planning permission. Again, this is far too low to allow for population growth and property demand. This also shows that there is no substantial overhang of planned units not built. From 2011 to 2014, the difference between units built and units permitted in just 3,915.

There is too much of a lag between population growth and the associated property demand and numbers of housing units actually being built in Dublin.

The expectation that developers will build when and where there is demand is not happening. The possible causes for this – lack of funding, building regulation changes and associated costs, social housing demands on new developments and associated costs, long and expensive planning process – are not immediately clear.

What I am not surprised at is the absence of a coherent Government response and a constant Government dabbling in and tweaking of the property market.

In the short-term – 2-3 years, there is absolutely no chance that property built in Dublin will meet property required. This will give rise to consequences such as:

1. Population movement to counties adjacent to Dublin with resulting property price – purchase or rental – increases in those areas
2. Latent demand for property in Dublin that, if not satisfied will give rise to an unfilled demand that will cause a short-term bubble whenever it the demand can be satisfied
3. Constrained economic growth for Dublin
4. Continuing property price increases - purchases and rental – in Dublin
5. Salary increases in specific types of employment as employees need more money to pay for accommodation and/or as employers need to pay more to attract employees

In the short-term, the outlook does not appear to be pretty.

Data Quality

Now, as I mentioned earlier, the data has lots of issues that would deserve further investigation to make the analysis more exact:

1. The accommodation capacity of the units being built over time and in different regions – this could be inferred to some extent from the Average Floor Area per Unit (Sq Metres) available in BHA02 with some assumptions. The information is not publically available from the Department of the Environment.

2. The number of lapsed planning permissions

3. The number of planning permissions extended

4. The number of planning permissions that refer to the same development and so are being counted multiple times in any analysis

5. Any variation between local authority area listed in the planning permissions numbers and those listed in the housing units built numbers

Making the Analysis Better

Demand for property is age-specific. Children do not buy or rent property. The type of property a parent will require for a child will be different than that demanded by an adult for him or herself. The age profile of Dublin affects property demand. I covered this previously.

The analysis could be expanded to look at age-specific property demand.

The issues listed above could be addressed insofar as this is possible.

The other property-related factors such as above could be included.


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 Post subject: Re: Property Planning and Building
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:57 pm 
Offline
Speculator

Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 431
It is nice to see that so much has changed in the last 18 months and that none of these dire warnings have come to pass. I feel so relieved.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=64692&p=834467

ChickenParmentier on Tue Jun 23, 2015 at 10:23 am wrote:

In the short-term – 2-3 years, there is absolutely no chance that property built in Dublin will meet property required. This will give rise to consequences such as:

1. Population movement to counties adjacent to Dublin with resulting property price – purchase or rental – increases in those areas
2. Latent demand for property in Dublin that, if not satisfied will give rise to an unfilled demand that will cause a short-term bubble whenever it the demand can be satisfied
3. Constrained economic growth for Dublin
4. Continuing property price increases - purchases and rental – in Dublin
5. Salary increases in specific types of employment as employees need more money to pay for accommodation and/or as employers need to pay more to attract employees


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 Post subject: Re: Property Planning and Building
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:10 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 9, 2014
Posts: 1897
:lol:


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