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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 4:58 pm 
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Fair play to her. Is anyone in the central racket office listening to her? Doubtful. Depressing.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:25 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Location: Bogtrotterland!
Skippy 3 wrote:

Not really. Yes, small rural areas have seen population decline since 1991, but others have seen growth.

Every county - even predominantly rural ones like Roscommon and Leitrim - have seen population growth since 1991.

If you want to see real population decline visit large parts of the former East Germany or the interior of Spain.

Ireland's unique land ownership and easy planning made it possible to build on the family farm land. Few other places even allow building in the countryside let alone have family owned land to build on.

These days planning is much tighter and few can repeat the cycle of building a new house in the field next door to the parents.

If Ireland had similar planning rules as the UK for example starting from after WWII, rural Ireland would be severely depopulated now.

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:

Not really. Yes, small rural areas have seen population decline since 1991, but others have seen growth.

Every county - even predominantly rural ones like Roscommon and Leitrim - have seen population growth since 1991.

If you want to see real population decline visit large parts of the former East Germany or the interior of Spain.

Ireland's unique land ownership and easy planning made it possible to build on the family farm land. Few other places even allow building in the countryside let alone have family owned land to build on.

These days planning is much tighter and few can repeat the cycle of building a new house in the field next door to the parents.

If Ireland had similar planning rules as the UK for example starting from after WWII, rural Ireland would be severely depopulated now.

if rural dwellers lived adjacent to villages instead of in ribbon developments the villages would be stronger and broadband rollout etc would be more cost effective. Around my home town it's a choice of identikit semi-d in the new estates or going 3-5 miles out and buying a site very few quality houses around the town itself


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:39 pm 
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Posts: 1888
A lot of this is down to cr@ppy service provision by local authorities in rural towns.

Apparently over the years group schemes were much more responsive to new connections than local authorities were to water mains.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:18 am 
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Dan O'Brien has spotted a pretty obvious source of the growth in the rental demand lurking in the CSO data:


Quote:
Having more people coming into the country adds to the demand pressure for homes, particularly in the rental market where almost all new arrivals cluster for their housing needs. Tuesday's CSO figures, which are subject to revision once the statisticians incorporate April's census, show that since the labour market started to recover ground years ago, the number of adults living in the state rose by 53,000. What is striking is that 60pc of this increase, or more than 32,000 people, were neither Irish nor from other EU countries.

As an EU member, there can be no controls on citizens of other member countries coming to work here, just as Irish citizens have the right to work anywhere else in the EU. But that does not apply to people from farther afield.

Given the pressure on housing, it may be worth considering tightening up the issuing of work visas, which has been rising strongly, for a short period of time.

This, along with other measures being introduced in the Government's housing policy, could help contain rent inflation in the near term.


Bear in mind the CSO has form (viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66204) in managing to undercount inward migration, more detailed Census figures next year will almost certainly point to the very strange phenomonon of:
-Irish people leaving for better jobs abroad
-Non-EU citizens coming to Ireland in large numbers to, well, work.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:06 am 
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brazilians are taking low paid jobs from poles, we take previously 'ok paid' jobs from irish, irish are leaving.

Add to this refugees/illegals who are here for benefits, not jobs and you will get Malmoe 2.0 in 10-15 years.

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For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:48 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Feb 6, 2007
Posts: 4199
werpen wrote:
satechi wrote:
Or a Metro North with high rise (20-40) stories apartment block clusters by each station, kill several birds with one stone.

Or incentivize companies to create jobs in the rest of the country instead of clustering in Dublin.


Big multi nations only like dublin and cork/galway at a push

SDCC siting on 8,000 undeveloped houses/apartment at Adamstown
Im sure there are many more in other areas

Housing crisis my eye, the crisis in not in housing its in leadership
Devolving an strategy to help and grow Irish businesses would be the right strategy or at least not putting roadblocks in the way of irish companies.

Not entirely true. The likes of Abbott (Abbvie) carefully avoid the likes of Dublin/Cork/Galway.

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 5:31 pm 
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Posts: 630
Isnt it remarkable how the debate (and media narrative) has moved from excess housing and worthless property to housing crisis in such a short time.
If only someone had seen that coming.....

They gambled with the bank guarantee and it paid off.
Your inaction emboldened them.
Now they'll stop at nothing.

Your children will live in slums.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 5:52 pm 
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Joined: Feb 1, 2008
Posts: 2826
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the very man wrote:
Isnt it remarkable how the debate (and media narrative) has moved from excess housing and worthless property to housing crisis in such a short time.
If only someone had seen that coming.....

They gambled with the bank guarantee and it paid off.
Your inaction emboldened them.
Now they'll stop at nothing.

Your children will live in slums.



Meeting more people than usual over Christmas, it's surprising how upbeat some are about the housing economy generally. They did not take it well when I suggested that what we are seeing since 2008 is a protracted real market denial phase and right now in a dead cat bounce, I have repeatedly asserted long term values in areas like Dublin are still 60% below current valuations, so the big slump has yet to kick in, buy now at your peril.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:48 pm 
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Joined: May 12, 2012
Posts: 1888
the very man wrote:
Isnt it remarkable how the debate (and media narrative) has moved from excess housing and worthless property to housing crisis in such a short time.
If only someone had seen that coming.....


Well if you had taken the pin at face value c 2011 you would have waited til the SCD semi bottomed out at 200k.....


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:19 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Aug 5, 2012
Posts: 630
Inis Man wrote:
the very man wrote:
Isnt it remarkable how the debate (and media narrative) has moved from excess housing and worthless property to housing crisis in such a short time.
If only someone had seen that coming.....

They gambled with the bank guarantee and it paid off.
Your inaction emboldened them.
Now they'll stop at nothing.

Your children will live in slums.



Meeting more people than usual over Christmas, it's surprising how upbeat some are about the housing economy generally. They did not take it well when I suggested that what we are seeing since 2008 is a protracted real market denial phase and right now in a dead cat bounce, I have repeatedly asserted long term values in areas like Dublin are still 60% below current valuations, so the big slump has yet to kick in, buy now at your peril.


I would concur with this view, but as another auld hand from the halcyon Pin days, I'm long enough in the tooth to take anything for granted......

Skippy 3 wrote:
the very man wrote:
Isnt it remarkable how the debate (and media narrative) has moved from excess housing and worthless property to housing crisis in such a short time.
If only someone had seen that coming.....


Well if you had taken the pin at face value c 2011 you would have waited til the SCD semi bottomed out at 200k.....


......but they'll bottom out at a lot lower than that, I'd wager.

Remains to be seen just how much money printing the ECB will undertake.
If (when) the larger economies start to crumble and Mervyn Kings recently resurrected notion of a German euro exit comes to pass, we could see SCD prices at €1m per sqm, but a €m only buying you a box of matches or a loaf of bread.

(On that note, I wonder would it be possible to compile a Pindex of historical house prices - a rough sq ft/sq M pricing compared to the price of some comparable product. Something like the Economicts Big Mac index.)

btw, Is there a 2017 thread?
I think next year is going to be monstrous......


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:17 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Apr 4, 2010
Posts: 4545
the very man wrote:

(On that note, I wonder would it be possible to compile a Pindex of historical house prices - a rough sq ft/sq M pricing compared to the price of some comparable product. Something like the Economicts Big Mac index.)


I'm too lazy to look it up now, but I think somebody started a "pint of the black stuff index" a few years ago.

Edit Here you go.

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Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:09 pm 
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Location: Somewhere up in the hills
Image

I think the Guinness Pint Index originated on Finfacts, but the Guinness House Price Index began on the 'Pin. The first graphic attempt at it was probably by a contributor called 'What Goes Up?', but I could be wrong.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:39 am 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 31, 2011
Posts: 1381
Location: 0-71
the very man wrote:
Isnt it remarkable how the debate (and media narrative) has moved from excess housing and worthless property to housing crisis in such a short time.
.


What's really funny - it is like that with everything here. Paddy politics: do nothing until it became a real problem.. a problem to win the elections?

Hotels were very same like houses: from massive closures to 'we got no rooms!!!'



Quote:
The cost of housing is the primary concern for workers in Dublin, according to a new survey that shows employees are also worried about high levels of personal taxation, childcare fees and congestion.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/econ ... -1.2920129

I would add:
health service, education and rising crime.

As well as idiotic trend to increase uneducated immigration from 3rd world, which will put more pressure on already weak services.

_________________
Why it was so windy there?... I am out.

For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
It's all grand


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:45 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3077
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
Yet another allegation in Galway about Council staff, with no oversight, abusing their powers on housing
I have been sent documentation concerning irregularities in the allocation of housing under the affordable social housing scheme that has been operated by Galway City Council.
According to the documents I have been sent, former senior management officials were allocated housing under the scheme who did not fit its criteria.
That a retired head of a particular department whose income would be publicly known to be in excess of the limits allowable under the affordable social housing scheme was given a house is a very serious matter. Furthermore, I am told he already had a primary residence prior to purchasing the house. I am informed that other senior officials were awarded houses in excess of their needs as well
https://www.kildarestreet.com/sendebate ... 14a.34#g95 http://connachttribune.ie/staff-alleged ... elves-040/


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