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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:23 pm 
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Calina wrote:
A massive property tax on unused habitable residential units in distressed areas like Dublin and Cork might force supply into one or other market too.

I don't see the need to limit that to habitable units. Why not make those sitting on derelict sites/unfinished units that could be brought back into use pay too?


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:28 pm 
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A Site Value Tax would have achieved that, and that's precisely why the proposal was abandoned in 2011.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:33 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Most of the country has a plentiful supply...but there are no jobs there.

Cork Galway Dublin and their hinterlands do not have a plentiful supply, but there are jobs there.

Like this one of many in the north of the county.

2 Hillside, Ballintubber, Co. Roscommon
€38,000
Terraced House | 3 Beds | 3 Baths


Well that one will be around a 1 hour 10 mins 45-50 miles commute to the East fringe of Galway City AFTER the M17 opens next summer. If you have a young family and one income/car that is not the craziest idea for a place to live given the drastic improvement in commuting times that is imminent for those coming from Mid Connacht to Galway. I warn you that Ballintubber is quiet compared to the heaving fleshpots of Castlerea to the north. :) It is only 2 hours from the M50, believe it or not. :D

The same kind of house in Oranmore (more or less) went for around €200k and sold within a week of going to market recently.

http://www.daft.ie/galway/houses-for-sa ... y-1211725/

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:13 am 
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Coles2 wrote:
A Site Value Tax would have achieved that, and that's precisely why the proposal was abandoned in 2011.


I thought it is frozen for next few years..

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:23 pm 
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The Irish Times just repeats the same n-th hand piece of alleged received wisdom that has acquired a spurious veracity about numbers of vacant properties without any more detailed analysis on:

• Exactly how many residential buildings are actually vacant in terms of not being in the process of being converted or prepared for occupation

• Exactly how many residential buildings are unoccupied because of long-term illness of the occupant(s)

• Exactly how realistic and achievable it might be to convert a small number of individual buildings that are geographically dispersed to residential use and what it might cost, especially relative to constructing new residential properties

But who cares? It is easier just to repeat an unproven assertion rather than engage with the details and question the often-repeated half-truth.

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-styl ... -1.2899765

Quote:
This week Apollo House, a vacant Nama-owned property on Tara Street, in Dublin 2, was taken over by “concerned citizens” who want to use it to house homeless people. Their response to the widespread homelessness problem highlights a paradox of the current housing crisis.

While more than 6,000 people in Ireland are officially homeless, while a frenzy of building activity struggles to meet housing demand, and while arguments about rising rents convulse Dáil Éireann, numerous buildings in the capital sit empty. Naturally, concerned citizens must wonder why they cannot be used as homes.

Would filling these empty buildings alleviate the crisis?

In theory, yes. Nine per cent of Dublin dwellings – almost 21,000 units, excluding holiday homes, in the city and suburbs – are vacant. (The national rate is even worse, at 13 per cent.)


No - the non-holiday home residential vacancy rate is 8.6% and not 9%.

So, what is the real number of so-called vacant residential buildings in Dublin?

The CSO publish census data on this:

EP009: Housing Stock and Vacant Dwellings 2016 by Electoral Division, CensusYear and Statistic

But they do not give reasons why a building is classified as vacant, such as:

• Vacant interval between lettings
• Rebuilding/refurbishment
• Occupier in long-term residential care
• Derelict and unsuitable for accommodation without major work
• Derelict and suitable for accommodation with minor work

I find the CSO data on this, and other census data, questionable. But let’s use it as a starting point.

The following is an attempt to derive a realistic estimate:

Code:
                                                                                                   Dublin     Dublin City
A                           Housing Stock  (Number)                                                534,652         242,397
                            Vacant Holiday Homes (Number)                                            1,439             937
B                           Other Vacant Dwellings (Number)                                         35,293          20,844
                            Total Vacant Dwellings (Number)                                         36,732          21,781
                            Vacancy Rate %                                                           6.87%           8.99%
                            Non Holiday Home Vacancy Rate %                                          6.60%           8.60%
C                           Number of Tenancies Registered                                         123,215          96,960
D = C x U                   Number Of Residential Properties Represented By Tenancies - Es          82,554          64,963
E = D x V                   Number Of Residential Properties Vacant At Any Time - Estimate           4,128           3,248
F = (A-D) x W               Fair Deal Vacancies - Estimate                                           4,521           1,774
G = (A-D) x X               Number Of Residential Properties Vacant Due To Refurbishment -           6,781           2,662
H = (A-D) x Y               Vacant Due To Sales Process                                              6,781           2,662
I = B - E - F - G - H       Net Number Of Actual Vacant Residential Properties - Estimate           13,082          10,498
J = I / A                   Actual Vacancy Rate                                                      2.45%           4.33%

                            Assumptions
U                           Tenancy To Residential Unit Conversion Factor                             0.67
V                           Rental Vacancy Rate                                                         5%
W                           Fair Deal Vacancies                                                         1%
X                           Refurbishment Vacancies                                                   1.5%
Y                           Sales-Related Vacancy Rate                                                1.5%


The assumptions are stated.

The number of tenancies will not be the same as the number of residential properties they occupy. Some multi-tenancy units will be classified by the CSO as a single residential building.

I have made assumptions on the void rate of rental properties, the number of residential building being refurbished at any one time and the number of houses left unoccupied because the owner is in long-term residential care and because of Fair Deal, the house is not sold.

A more realistic estimate of the number of vacant residential units is probably around 10,500 or around 4.33%.

Given that the estimated annual property requirement for Dublin is at least 15,000, this is not even a year’s worth of required residential property.

Alleged vacant residential buildings are just a distraction from the real issue about the failure to put in place structures, processes, incentives and penalties that cause and enable residential building.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:36 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Well that one will be around a 1 hour 10 mins 45-50 miles commute to the East fringe of Galway City AFTER the M17 opens next summer.


After M17 opens and before the bypass is build sometime in next 20 years... East Fringe of Galway City will turn into an even bigger parking for longer parts of the day. :(


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:19 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Most of the country has a plentiful supply...but there are no jobs there.

Cork Galway Dublin and their hinterlands do not have a plentiful supply, but there are jobs there.

Like this one of many in the north of the county.

2 Hillside, Ballintubber, Co. Roscommon
€38,000
Terraced House | 3 Beds | 3 Baths


Some numbers.

In 2017 net income for someone full time on minimum wage will be about €1475 monthly.

A 100% mortgage on a €38k house over 25 years at 3.5% is €190 monthly.

So mortgage cost of 13% of net minimum wage income.

The mantra of 'no jobs' is patently false. In 2011 - pretty much the worst year of the economic crisis in Ireland - there were 24,390 people at work who live in Co Roscommon, out of a total 15+ population of 50,485, or 48%.

Is there anywhere in the western world with housing this affordable?


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:34 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Most of the country has a plentiful supply...but there are no jobs there.

Cork Galway Dublin and their hinterlands do not have a plentiful supply, but there are jobs there.

Like this one of many in the north of the county.

2 Hillside, Ballintubber, Co. Roscommon
€38,000
Terraced House | 3 Beds | 3 Baths


Some numbers.

In 2017 net income for someone full time on minimum wage will be about €1475 monthly.

A 100% mortgage on a €38k house over 25 years at 3.5% is €190 monthly.

So mortgage cost of 13% of net minimum wage income.

The mantra of 'no jobs' is patently false. In 2011 - pretty much the worst year of the economic crisis in Ireland - there were 24,390 people at work who live in Co Roscommon, out of a total 15+ population of 50,485, or 48%.

Is there anywhere in the western world with housing this affordable?


It blows my mind that people prefer the rat race in cities like Dublin! Careers are more important than living


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:37 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Most of the country has a plentiful supply...but there are no jobs there.

Cork Galway Dublin and their hinterlands do not have a plentiful supply, but there are jobs there.

Like this one of many in the north of the county.

2 Hillside, Ballintubber, Co. Roscommon
€38,000
Terraced House | 3 Beds | 3 Baths


Some numbers.

In 2017 net income for someone full time on minimum wage will be about €1475 monthly.

A 100% mortgage on a €38k house over 25 years at 3.5% is €190 monthly.

So mortgage cost of 13% of net minimum wage income.

The mantra of 'no jobs' is patently false. In 2011 - pretty much the worst year of the economic crisis in Ireland - there were 24,390 people at work who live in Co Roscommon, out of a total 15+ population of 50,485, or 48%.

Is there anywhere in the western world with housing this affordable?



That really is mad, even if median and minimum probably aren't all that different for the jobs that are actually available within a 5 mile radius of a small Roscommon village. Once you're travelling farther than that, housing is almost the least of your financial worries. You'd soon be paying more in petrol or very ropey rural bus fares than you would for your mortgage.
That said, a working population for an entire county of less than 25K is tiny. You really are fishing in a very small pool once you get outside the four main cities.

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Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


Last edited by Madness of Crowds on Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:42 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:

It blows my mind that people prefer the rat race in cities like Dublin! Careers are more important than living


Hmmm. An interesting job is just about the most important thing in my life, after basic shelter, 2500 KCal/day, adequate healthcare and a few hours in the company of the small number of people who interest me and I care about. It's extremely difficult for me to get that job outside a small number of large towns in Ireland. In this case, the calculus isn't "Am I willing to hand over 13% of my net pay for 25 years that feel like an eternity of watching paint dry?", but "Am I willing to hand over €38K in used notes, in exchange for an absolute minimum of two and a half hours a day commuting and having to plan many of my ordinary leisure activities days or weeks in advance?"
These places also tend not to have so much of the other things I enjoy outside my job. Still, I'm sure Ballintober is lovely. What's the opera like there? :wink:

Anyway, just what do people mean by this this rat race of which they constantly speak? Nobody has ever given me concrete examples of just what I'm supposed to be suffering. :?

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Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:11 pm 
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I completely agree. I have no interest in living or working in Roscommon either. I think I would have quite a nice material standard of living, kids would get a good upbringing, etc, but there is nothing professionally that would give me fulfillment.

My point is - from any kind of social planning perspective - that large parts of Ireland do not have problems with housing affordability, despite what the Dublin media says.

Viewed from (say) a polluted city in Africa, a minimum wage job in Roscommon is in many ways better than an average-wage job in Dublin.


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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:25 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
My point is - from any kind of social planning perspective - that large parts of Ireland do not have problems with housing affordability, despite what the Dublin media says.

Been saying that for years around here. There is no national housing problem and large waiting lists in some rural areas are not actually a housing problem per se. We don't need to build any social housing in Leitrim or Longford no matter how long the waiting lists are.

So lets focus on where there is a problem, Dublin, Cork and to a lesser extent Galway ( and up to 20 miles out from the latter 2 and 30 miles out from the former). Stupid media crap is irrelevant.

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:41 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Some numbers.

In 2017 net income for someone full time on minimum wage will be about €1475 monthly.

A 100% mortgage on a €38k house over 25 years at 3.5% is €190 monthly.

So mortgage cost of 13% of net minimum wage income.

The mantra of 'no jobs' is patently false. In 2011 - pretty much the worst year of the economic crisis in Ireland - there were 24,390 people at work who live in Co Roscommon, out of a total 15+ population of 50,485, or 48%.

Is there anywhere in the western world with housing this affordable?

You are asking the wrong questions.

Is there anywhere in the western world where it is better to stay on welfare than work?


Plus minimum wage should be local, if it really need to exist. Dublin is very very different from the example above. Minimum wage in the country should not exist or be much much lower so they can compete with other countries.

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06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sun Dec 18, 2016 11:05 am 
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mightyz wrote:

Is there anywhere in the western world where it is better to stay on welfare than work?


A very good question, I doubt it


mightyz wrote:
Plus minimum wage should be local, if it really need to exist. Dublin is very very different from the example above. Minimum wage in the country should not exist or be much much lower so they can compete with other countries.


I disagree, cutting the wages of workers on the bottom rung seems like a bad idea to me, it would only make the welfare option more attractive

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 Post subject: Re: Grappling with the housing crisis: Fresh approaches need
PostPosted: Sun Dec 18, 2016 11:44 am 
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If you were to drop the minimum wage for workers in the countryside, they'll soon become ex-employees!
Possibly the worst thing to contemplate doing as it would would cause a collapse in the rural population and put more pressure on accommodation in the cities.
If the grand plan is to depopulate the countryside, that's the strategy to follow.

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