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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 10:01 am 
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Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 431
Yes – the number of properties not connected to the electricity network that are habitable and inhabited is so small as to be irrelevant. It is why I suggested some time ago that ESB Network, who know everyone’s address and not Bord Gais who do not should have been given the Irish Water role.

So ESB Network property details would be useful and accurate. Regarding post codes, I know that up to the middle of 2015, post codes were only assigned to 70% of ESB Network addresses.

GeoDirectory has been around for years and because it is part of An Post who also have a knowledge of all addresses and so should be quite accurate. The drops are not explained but may have been part of a rationalisation.

The confusing information publically available just shows the lack of real information into which vacuum beardy twats like Skehan rush.

Coveney is losing control of the message and being made to appear foolish as the headline assertion of 250,000 empty properties gets translated into the assumption and simplistic message that these are all immediately available for habitation. This is not correct.

If I were Coveney, the first action I would take is to get an accurate view of what exactly the situation is across both supply and demand. I would call in beardy Skehan and tell him to either shut the fuck up or be sacked.

I do not agree that the current rate of building is at the required replacement rate.

From 2012 to 2015, 16,221 properties in unfinished estates classified as built and unoccupied or nearly complete became occupied. This is a once-off bump that cannot be repeated.

The building rate is low (GeoView Q4 2015 - Quarterly Residential Vacancy Rates Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire ... e_4_V7.pdf):

Quote:
3,957 buildings were classified as
being under construction in the
GeoDirectory Database in Q4 2015.

• Dublin’s position as the centre of Irish
construction strengthened as almost
17% of all buildings under construction
were located in the Capital. This
equated to 669 buildings in the period.

• Building activity was also relatively
strong in counties Cork and Donegal
which accounted for 11.9% and 11.1%
of all buildings under construction
in the country respectively.

• Construction activity was weakest
in Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo
with fewer than 40 buildings under
construction in each county.

• In total, 3,957 buildings were under
construction in Ireland, marginally
above the 3,786 under construction in
Q2 2015. It was also a modest increase
on the 3,731 buildings undergoing
construction work in Q4 2014.

Buildings under construction are classified as buildings
in the process of being built which have a minimum of
foundations and rising walls.


and:

Quote:
In the 12 months to December 4th
2015, 11,784 dwellings were added to
the GeoDirectory Database.

• At a national level, 0.6% of the residential
stock had been added.

• Wexford had the highest proportion of
residential dwellings added over the 12
month period at 2.2%. This was followed
by Donegal (1.7%), Meath and Wicklow
(both 1%).

• Waterford (0.7%) was the only other
county in the country to have proportions
of additions above the national average.

• Longford (no significant change) had
the lowest rate in the country, as only
9 dwellings were added to the county’s
stock over the year. This was followed by
Sligo (0.1%), Leitrim, Limerick, Louth and
Westmeath (all 0.2%).

• In absolute terms, Dublin had the largest
number of new additions to the database
(2,967). Wexford (1,557) and Donegal
(1,478) were the only other counties to
record more than 1,000 additions.

Additions are classified as dwellings which are either
newly constructed, or which had not previously been
recorded.


I still believe the number of unoccupied properties, whatever metric is used to classify a property as unoccupied, will be less than 200,000. But even that is meaningless.

I am not a betting person but in this case, I might.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 10:26 am 
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I entirely agree with the ESB observation, that and their excellent GIS system which is years in place.

ChickenParmentier wrote:

So ESB Network property details would be useful and accurate. Regarding post codes, I know that up to the middle of 2015, post codes were only assigned to 70% of ESB Network addresses.


Have you as source for that number?? ( or by PM if necessary)

Quote:
Still believe the number of unoccupied properties, whatever metric is used to classify a property as unoccupied, will be less than 200,000. But even that is meaningless.

I am not a betting person but in this case, I might.


I am at least at 210k and possibly 220k (excluding the Temporarily Absents in column b or c) and counting empty houses flats and holiday homes...which are normally empty in April at census time. We agree they are generally in the 'wrong place' for activation as medium term homes for the homeless....who wants to be trapped in Roundstone in the winter after all. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 12:18 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1650
2Pack wrote:
I entirely agree with the ESB observation, that and their excellent GIS system which is years in place.

ChickenParmentier wrote:

So ESB Network property details would be useful and accurate. Regarding post codes, I know that up to the middle of 2015, post codes were only assigned to 70% of ESB Network addresses.


Have you as source for that number?? ( or by PM if necessary)

Quote:
Still believe the number of unoccupied properties, whatever metric is used to classify a property as unoccupied, will be less than 200,000. But even that is meaningless.

I am not a betting person but in this case, I might.


I am at least at 210k and possibly 220k (excluding the Temporarily Absents in column b or c) and counting empty houses flats and holiday homes...which are normally empty in April at census time. We agree they are generally in the 'wrong place' for activation as medium term homes for the homeless....who wants to be trapped in Roundstone in the winter after all. :)



Can we at least forget about holiday homes as they are irrelevant
From the Last census
D Unoccupied - vacant house (Number) 168,427
E Unoccupied - vacant flat (Number) 61,629

Both are likely to have dropped


From 2006
There were 266,000 vacant dwellings in 2006 representing 15 per cent of the total housing stock. Of these, 175,000 were houses, 42,000 were flats and 50,000 were classified as holiday homes.

http://www.cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pres ... 6-housing/

I cant find the figures for 2002

My guess is there will be much less flats (under 30k) and somewhat less houses (150k) in the latest census

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 12:57 pm 
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Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 431
Yes, I agree with your estimate.

The CSO did not count vacant dwellings before 2006.

The slight drop of 6,000 in the number of vacant residential units from 2006 - 236,000 to 2011 - 230,000 occurred in the context of:

• An increase in population of 348,000, largely comprised of immigrants needing homes rather than children being born into existing households

• The overhang of a building boom leading to large numbers of unfinished housing developments

during the interval.

From 2011 to 2016, there has been:

• A smaller increase in population – I would estimate the number at around 150,000

• Virtual cessation of residential building

• Conversion of previously unoccupied residential units in unfinished housing developments that might have been counted as unoccuplied in 2011 to completed and occupied

For these reasons, I feel the number of dwellings counted as unoccupied will drop by at least 50,000.

Of course, I could be entirely wrong.

Anyway, such attempts at rational unbiased analysis are just pissing in the gale of blowhard dogma.

What is simply appalling is that there is no analysis of what role, IF ANY, such unoccupied units can play in solving current housing problems.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 3:25 pm 
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Posts: 11942
werpen wrote:

I cant find the figures for 2002



VACANT HOUSES have been published back to 1861 in every single census somewhere, not always in the population bit like nowadays. Not sure if they are on the statbank though. :)

CSO published the 2011 vacancy rates for every single townland only a year ago.

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:45 pm 
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Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 431
http://www.independent.ie/business/pers ... 69108.html

Quote:
Coveney's housing plan unlikely to meet its deadline

Housing Minister Simon Coveney has conceded that his action plan for housing is not likely to be launched within the first 100 days of government as promised.

Mr Coveney made the admission at the Dáil's Housing and Homelessness committee. The Programme for Government includes a commitment to publish the plan within the first 100 days - which is mid-August.

Mr Coveney said a more likely launch date would be the end of that month or into September. He said the plan would include "a proactive and aggressive work programme to implement it and ensure it works".

He said it could be released at the end of July "before everybody heads off on holidays", but that was "not the kind of momentum we want the project to generate".

Meanwhile, Mr Coveney said he accepted there were no longer 230,000 vacant homes in the country. The figure - highlighted by the Housing Agency in recent weeks - comes from the 2011 Census.


No flies on you Simon.

Quote:
Mr Coveney said up-to-date statistics would be available towards the end of this month.

He said even if there were just 100,000 vacant properties left, a "decent proportion" could be used for social housing. He said buying such properties would be a "much quicker process than building".

AAA-PBP's Ruth Coppinger said the number of social housing units built should be higher than the 10pc threshold required by law. She said that with 100,000 people on the housing list, "we would need to build one million houses".


One person per house there Ruth?

Quote:
Mr Coveney said the Part V law she was referring to sets out 10pc as a minimum but said "many developments go beyond that".

He mentioned the Glass Bottle site in Dublin where there were plans to build as many as 3,000 units and said he hoped the number of social housing units there would be "way more" than 10pc.


And given its seafront location you can call it the Glass Bottle Ghetteau.

Quote:
Fine Gael's Fergus O'Dowd said various State agencies had land banks and raised the example of Gormanstown army camp in Co Meath which has 200 acres and is on a motorway and rail line. He suggested such areas could be used for housing.

Mr Coveney said he would "look at it" and added that Irish Rail also has land banks in good locations but the transport company would have to be compensated for their use.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:25 pm 
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Joined: Jun 23, 2011
Posts: 381
ChickenParmentier wrote:
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/coveneys-housing-plan-unlikely-to-meet-its-deadline-34769108.html

Quote:

Mr Coveney said he would "look at it" and added that Irish Rail also has land banks in good locations but the transport company would have to be compensated for their use.


It would be interesting to see an audit done of these land banks, if we had some joined up thinking, any revenues raised should be ring fenced for Dart Underground which could in turn add value to these sites. Being Irish Rail however, I expect the money to be appropriated by unions.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 8:44 pm 
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Joined: May 12, 2012
Posts: 1882
Coveney was on newstalk last week. It was unexceptional save for one point.

He was adamant (adamant!) that there would be no large-scale social-only dwellings built under his watch. He suggested these schemes of the past were a universal failure. I have pointed out several times that this is a myth. Many social-only schemes have very high levels of resident satisfaction. Only the failures (Limerick, north Dublin, etc) make the headlines.

He seems very comfortable with part V and local authorities current very small scale development. I have no idea how this will lead to the new build of thousands of social housing units every year.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:22 pm 
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There was a baby boom in recent years plus high emigration of 25-35 group.. This had to have impact on numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:01 am 
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Preliminary census figures out -- 260k vacant properties of which 60k are holiday homes. I would say 2Pack called it right.

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:12 am 
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Joined: Jan 11, 2009
Posts: 496
Quote:
What is simply appalling is that there is no analysis of what role, IF ANY, such unoccupied units can play in solving current housing problems.


The majority don't want the private housing supply problem fixed!
Most of the electorate have either bought or are going to buy at some stage and when they do they want the upward pressure on prices to continue.

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:55 am 
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Joined: Nov 20, 2014
Posts: 994
EuroTom wrote:
Quote:
What is simply appalling is that there is no analysis of what role, IF ANY, such unoccupied units can play in solving current housing problems.


The majority don't want the private housing supply problem fixed!
Most of the electorate have either bought or are going to buy at some stage and when they do they want the upward pressure on prices to continue.


Well assuming majority of these units are likely to be in PRIVATE ownership and could be vacant for all sorts of good reasons.
What do you propose? ripping up the constitution and seizing private property for public benefit??
No offence but that's a slippery slope to hell, and not a new idea.


Another question you should ask yourself, unless there is a good reason why would anyone leave a property empty and NOT rent it out in the current day where rents gone insane?


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:15 am 
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Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5502
Location: SthDub
satechi wrote:
Another question you should ask yourself, unless there is a good reason why would anyone leave a property empty and NOT rent it out in the current day where rents gone insane?

Tenants having too much power, the hassle of dealing with disputes and the inevitable hit in the pocket, trying to get your place back if you want to sell it etc


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:45 am 
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Joined: Nov 20, 2014
Posts: 994
FreeFallin wrote:
satechi wrote:
Another question you should ask yourself, unless there is a good reason why would anyone leave a property empty and NOT rent it out in the current day where rents gone insane?

Tenants having too much power, the hassle of dealing with disputes and the inevitable hit in the pocket, trying to get your place back if you want to sell it etc


So pass laws making rentals easier for both landlords and tenants, and you endup with more homes on market for people to rent bringing rents down.

Simple solution that does not involved going full communist on peoples private property.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 12:13 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5502
Location: SthDub
satechi wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
satechi wrote:
Another question you should ask yourself, unless there is a good reason why would anyone leave a property empty and NOT rent it out in the current day where rents gone insane?

Tenants having too much power, the hassle of dealing with disputes and the inevitable hit in the pocket, trying to get your place back if you want to sell it etc


So pass laws making rentals easier for both landlords and tenants, and you endup with more homes on market for people to rent bringing rents down.

Simple solution that does not involved going full communist on peoples private property.


Unless the laws being introduced are deemed to be pro-Tenant, then there's nothing simple about introducing them. There'd be outcry amongst the media/NGOs and so in a country with so little political backbone, it's not simple and won't happen


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