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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 2:11 pm 
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1 & 2 wouldn't be unoccupied in the census. They would be temporarily vacant, in the same way as if you'd been on holiday on census night.
That's provided the census forms were filled in correctly and the residents were listed as "temporarily absent" vs the census form not being filled in at all.

3 & 4 would be unoccupied for the purposes of the census.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 2:19 pm 
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The report is on their website:

http://www.Housing.ie

under Publications...Latest Publications...Submissions to Oireachtas

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 v acant proper
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 2:41 pm 
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Why aren't they for sale? Plenty of people can work remotely. I'd return to Ireland and freelance . The further away from Dublin and built up areas the better.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 2:51 pm 
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jess wrote:
1 & 2 wouldn't be unoccupied in the census. They would be temporarily vacant, in the same way as if you'd been on holiday on census night.
That's provided the census forms were filled in correctly and the residents were listed as "temporarily absent" vs the census form not being filled in at all.

3 & 4 would be unoccupied for the purposes of the census.


Thanks Jess, I'm not sure if there was anyone there to collect the census form in case 2 - I know relatives go in and out but I don't know if the census people drop the form in through the door.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 v acant proper
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 3:00 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Why aren't they for sale? Plenty of people can work remotely. I'd return to Ireland and freelance . The further away from Dublin and built up areas the better.


Friend of mine spent three years trying to sell her mothers house just outside a small town very far from Dublin. It was always for sale - just nobody wanted to buy it - and they weren't being greedy with the price - they made it clear to the EA that any decent offer would be considered - they didn't even get stupid offers.

To be honest I wouldn't live in rural ireland, I might have done it in my 20s/30s but as life rolls on I don't fancy life as an elderly person in the country. Outside a town is impossible without having to drive everywhere and I have yet to find a country town that I find attractive - towns that were attractive twenty years ago are now depressing kips dominated by local mafias who own everything in the place and let it go to rack and ruin.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 3:15 pm 
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Posts: 431
Contributions like this are obstructive, contrary and add confusion to a difficult situation that is getting only more difficult.

He seems to suggest that there is a vast pool of immediately available housing that can be used to address any housing requirements. This is manifestly not correct.

Quote:
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Skehan said this is an opportunity for everyone as it translates to around two years supply of housing that could be used.


His own agency published reports on housing requirements:

http://www.housing.ie/getattachment/Our ... ort-v4.pdf

https://www.housing.ie/Housing/media/Me ... Report.pdf

Table 5.2 Breakdown of Housing Demand by Region 2014 – 2018

No. Of Additional Housing Units Required 2014 – 2018 - 80,368

How does 80,000 units required from 2014 to 2018 translate to 125,000 units a year for two years?

His own agency published the results of surveys on unfinished developments:

http://www.housing.ie/Our-Services/Unfi ... ing-Survey

http://www.housing.ie/our-services/unfi ... urvey.aspx

The status of residential units in these developments in these surveys is classified as one of:

1. Complete & Occupied
2. Complete & Vacant
3. Near Complete
4. Wall Plate Level
5. DPC Level
6. Foundation Level
7. Not Started
8. Planning Expired

In 2012 in the four Dublin local authorities, there were 5,727 units classified as:

• Complete & Vacant
• Near Complete

that is, available or nearly available for occupation.

By 2015, this had fallen to 904. According to his own agency:

Quote:
37,581 units of total supply over the 5 year period 2014-2018 is required across the Dublin Region’s urban settlements


Also:

Quote:
It shows that 57% of all households in the Dublin Region will be for one and two person households, while three person households account for a further 18%. Therefore, three quarters of all households over this period will be for three people or less.


There is no standardised and published definition of what is a vacant residential property.

A property could be in transition from one owner to another or be for sale. Is this classified as vacant? Is a house that is being renovated classified as vacant?

Is a largely derelict residential property classified as vacant?

At what stage is a property that is being built described as unoccupied?

The Housing Agency report quotes actions taken in other countries such as UK:

Quote:
Invested £235 million that has the potential to bring over 12,000 problematic empty
homes back into use by March 2015, but also to provide opportunities for
apprenticeships, training and employment

Given the New Homes Bonus for long-term empty homes brought back into use -
since April 2011 local authorities have received over £2.2 billion, recognising delivery
of over 550,000 homes, and over 93,000 empty homes being brought back into use.
The New Homes Bonus is a grant paid by central government to local councils and is
based on the amount of extra Council Tax revenue raised for new-build homes,
conversions and long-term empty homes brought back into use.


Without stating how actions like this could work in Ireland given the particular circumstances that apply, these comments are less than useless.

As his own agency recognises through the unfinished housing development survey, in many cases, the high vacancy rate is caused by ghost estates built in places where there is no demand and where there never will be any demand.

There is a requirement to build more residential property. Any diversion from this statement is not helpful. Building of the requirement residential property is not happening. So, stop making statements that deflect from this and take actions that generate this result.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 5:15 pm 
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ChickenParmentier wrote:
Contributions like this are obstructive, contrary and add confusion to a difficult situation that is getting only more difficult.

He seems to suggest that there is a vast pool of immediately available housing that can be used to address any housing requirements. This is manifestly not correct.

Is a largely derelict residential property classified as vacant?


No, derelict is not counted as a home at census time.

Quote:
As his own agency recognises through the unfinished housing development survey, in many cases, the high vacancy rateis caused by ghost estates built in places where there is no demand and where there never will be any demand.

There is a requirement to build more residential property. Any diversion from this statement is not helpful.


ONLY in Dublin Cork and Galway CITIES. Elsewhere a long term void tax will reactivate sufficient supply to deal with any eventualities. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 5:22 pm 
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I don't think it's true that there any many estate that will never have demand. It all depends on the price.

Also, we could easily use some of them as social housing or emergency accommodation. There's quite some demand there and surely a new house in Longford is preferable to a room in a dodgy hostel in inner-city Dublin.

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 7:59 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
ONLY in Dublin Cork and Galway CITIES. Elsewhere a long term void tax will reactivate sufficient supply to deal with any eventualities. :)


Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018) Cork - 4,400
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2012 - 512
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2015 - 55

Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018) Galway - 2,316
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2012 - 282
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2015 - 61

Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018) Limerick City and County - 2,635
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2012 - 447
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2015 - 165


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 8:03 pm 
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Posts: 1882
I looked at the report.

There are no estimates in it. There is a simply a reporting of the Census numbers which are now OVER FIVE YEARS OLD.

No one has any idea what the vacancy rate is in Ireland right now. Census 2016 will tell us, probably next year.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 10:22 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
No one has any idea what the vacancy rate is in Ireland right now. Census 2016 will tell us, probably next year.


Next MONTH I would think ( late June)

Vacancy rate in the west and midlands ( west of Kildare Navan and Enfield) if anything, will have risen since 2016, east of that they will probably have dropped.

On average the Irish household in 2011 and 2006 contained 2.7 persons. Soooo if the population rose by 150k or so in estimates then we needs to.

1. Build 60k units at least in the last 5 years....very nearly managed that.
2. Retire nothing from the stock ...around 1% of the stock derelicts every year which is 20k units

I'll hazard a guess we dropped our vacancy rate by 40k to slightly north of 200k so. We'll know soon.. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Tue May 24, 2016 7:11 am 
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Posts: 431
This is just an attempt to construct an empire. Skehan is looking to be appointed the housing Tsarina where he wll have the chance to spend other people's money pushing his ideas.

Perhaps he sees himself as some Irish Eliot Ness, roaming the country with his band of housing untouchables seizing unoccupied houses and telling people where they should live.

Some of his previous contradictory statements include:

http://www.herald.ie/news/housing-boss- ... 21900.html

Quote:
The Housing Agency will help take the mystery out of what is happening by issuing regular up-to-date information. Last week, the agency issued its first national statement on housing supply and demand and the outlook for 2015-17.

"We're going to stop people panicking into thinking that the supply of homes is running out," he told the Herald.

"We know how many there are, we know how many are required, the Government has a plan. We have the money, we have the budget, it's all there.

"Over the next couple of years to 2018, we will start to see a pick up in supply to meet the demand.

"Those people that are going to need houses, in 18 months, it'll start to come on line.

"A big part is getting people to have the courage to put their house on the market. A lot of supply can be met by people moving out of housing that is too big and putting it on the market," he said.

"So selling houses is just as important. Selling has been suppressed by people being afraid to crystallise losses or being afraid that prices will increase even more next year and they'll kick themselves if they sell now," he said.


http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/new-a ... -1.2475521

Quote:
There is a residential accommodation crisis in Ireland, especially in our cities. It affects quality of life, our ability to attract investment and the sustainable development of our cities as attractive places to live and raise children. Given the time it will take to deliver development, the problem will exist for at least another three years as stock is built.


It will be interesting to see if Coveney falls for this distracting propaganda.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Tue May 24, 2016 12:49 pm 
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ChickenParmentier wrote:

It will be interesting to see if Coveney falls for this distracting propaganda.


Kelly did, sure he was certain that houses would be delivered in time for the election where none actually were

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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 7:54 am 
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Posts: 431
I was driving to a meeting yesterday morning listening to the Radio. There was some idiot lecturer in some property-related discipline parroting the number of 250,000 unoccupied residential properties. This baseless and unsupported factoid has now got wings and is spreading to become some form of n-th hand received unquestioned wisdom.

These notes provide another perspective on the estimated number of unoccupied properties in Ireland.

DKM and GeoDirectory have been publishing reports on the numbers of residential properties (with some other analyses) since the middle of 2014. (They also produce reports on commercial properties:

The four reports available are:

GeoView Q4 2015 - Quarterly Residential Vacancy Rates Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire ... e_4_V7.pdf

GeoView August 2015 - Residential Buildings Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire ... t_2015.pdf

GeoView February 2015 - Residential Buildings Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/L8442_- ... tial_V5_(2).pdf

GeoView September 2014 - Residential Buildings Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/K7972_- ... tial_V7_(2)_(3).pdf

In summary, their estimates of the numbers of residential properties at the time of these analyses were:

Code:
Q4 2015        2,009,896
Q3 2015        2,008,568
Q4 2014        2,023,273
Q2 2014        2,019,638


There will always be a background number of properties deemed to be unoccupied and habitable. This will include properties being renovated, not occupied to occupant illness, long-term living elsewhere, rental voids and those not being occupied while involved in a transaction.

I left a property unoccupied for more than two years because I knew prices were increasing and I could not be arsed being an amateur landlord dealing with the cost, unpleasantness and risk of renting. Similarly a couple I know have moved from their main house to a rented property while it is being renovated.

Let’s look at a scenario:

Take the baseline number of residential properties counted by the CSO in April 2015 and compare this with the number of properties counted by DKM/GeoDirectory and the change in the number of completed and unoccupied or nearly completed and unoccupied properties in unfinished estates in the interval.

Code:
Q1 2011 Residential Properties CSO                                1,994,845
Q4 2015 Residential Properties DKM/GeoDirectory                   2,009,896
Difference                                                           15,051
New Residential Properties Connected To The Electricity Network      50,466
Nett Properties Lost From Q1 2011 To Q4 2015                         35,415
Unoccupied Properties in Q1 2011                                    230,056
Estimated Unoccupied Properties Q4 2015 Using CSO Baseline From     178,527


The simplistic approach I have taken here is:

• Calculate the difference between the number of residential properties counted in Q1 2011 and Q4 2015 = 15,051.

• Count the number of new residential properties connected to the electricity network = 50,466

• The difference between the number of new properties connected and the difference in the number of properties counted of 35,415 represents the nett number of properties lost. There is a turnover in properties annually. The Housing Agency themselves estimate that 0.5% of the population of residential properties are removed every year. (This seems slightly high to me.)

• Assume that a proportion of the nett number of properties lost were counted as unoccupied in 2011 – say 60%.

• Assume that a proportion of the number of new residential properties connected to the electricity network represent properties counted as unoccupied in 2011 – say 60%.

So the estimated number of unoccupied residential properties is 178,527.

The issues of:

• What exactly is counted as an unoccupied and habitable property

• How many of these properties are unoccupied and habitable rather than being validly unoccupied

• The location and thus the effective usability of these properties

remain unresolved.

So how many of the pool of properties counted as unoccupied are practically usable and can contribute to residential property shortage is unknown.

I would have thought organisations like the Housing Agency should be bringing more intelligence and realistic and practical analysis to this difficult situation. I am surprised they have not made any reference to the DKM/GeoDirectory analyses.


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 Post subject: Re: Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant propert
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 9:09 am 
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Thanks a lot Chicken. One interesting factoid.

ChickenParmentier wrote:

The four reports available are:

GeoView Q4 2015 - Quarterly Residential Vacancy Rates Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire ... e_4_V7.pdf

GeoView August 2015 - Residential Buildings Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire ... t_2015.pdf

GeoView February 2015 - Residential Buildings Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/L8442_- ... tial_V5_(2).pdf

GeoView September 2014 - Residential Buildings Report - http://dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/K7972_- ... tial_V7_(2)_(3).pdf

In summary, their estimates of the numbers of residential properties at the time of these analyses were:

Code:
Q4 2015        2,009,896
Q3 2015        2,008,568
Q4 2014        2,023,273
Q2 2014        2,019,638




The number of homes overall dropped. I think that was a technical adjustment to do with eircodes and eircode is a fucking mess where I live with a good few 'uncoded' but habitable premises that have no eircode.

Leaving aside the eircode fiasco the CER should force the ESB to regularly publish the number of domestic connections and the number of new domestic connections every month. That is the single best proxy rather than simply eircode counting.

After we see that one off adjustment between Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 which is eircode the rest of the data shows that NEW BUILDS are a netch more than Retirements on the aggregate but then again a lot of retirements are where an old person dies in a rural area and nobody wants the house.

So we are building at replacement level at least. I think. The increase in late 2015 could simply be people applying for missing eircodes.

Overall a static NATIONAL supply situation I think. We lose rural isolated homes to dereliction and decay (and the meter taken out) as older people die off and we replace them with urban homes and also rural homes NEAR towns with work like Galway.....plenty of one off ranch building within 20 miles of Galway for the last 3 years that I can see.

So if the population expands and the housing stock is static then what of takeup. I noted that the long decline in average household sizes stopped in 2011. It was the first census where average household sizes was the same as the one before, 2.7. Also note that the CSO annual population estimates are actually quite good and no shocks appear at census time there. Allowing for a gentle resumption in decline to 2.6 persons per we simply take this estimate number.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... april2015/

4,635,400 / 2.6 = 1.78m occupied homes out of 2.01m occupIABLE homes or 223k empties and that's why I a few days ago said it would be over 200k empty ( but not 250k or anything near) in the census next month.

Of course these empties are generally where there is no work, East Mayo, Donegal, Leitrim Longford Kerry and not in Stepaside where there is work, innit. :D

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