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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:47 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
tommyt wrote:
I think higher housing costs are an inevitable consequence of the cost of consumer goods decreasing in real terms since the 1980s- The Dublin slum dweller 100 years ago spent 10-15% of their income on accommodation. A decent coat or pair of shoes could cost as much as 80% of your weekly income. Being in thrall to endless consumption has its downsides...


That actually is a sign that land owners/landlords have exploited the fact that disposable income has increased by upping the prices of the land & rents to soak up all of this income. Homebuyers & tenants have been led to believe that they must pay more or lose out.

With limited supply and property owners willing to leave empty than "sell/rent for less than it's worth", they have the upper hand.

Except the land price component of a new build in Dublin isn't that big, maybe 50k from what I've read.

And arguably, land prices in urban areas should be relatively high to encourage efficient land use.

I'd choose a different set of arguments: whilst construction technology has improved, the high proportion of local inputs hasn't allowed the same production efficiencies as other consumer goods, so housing has become fundamentally more expensive. This is evidenced by the cost of building work on existing property.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.3261810
Declan O’Donnell wrote:
A rule of thumb is you should expect to pay between €1,000 and €1,500 per square metre to renovate an existing house. That money should, first and foremost, go into the fabric of the house.
Expect to pay from €3,000 to €4,000 per square metre for new build works – that includes extensions.

People argue that government takes a large slice of construction costs, but government takes a large slice of the cost of all consumer goods. You don't notice the VAT, customs and excise charges on Chinese manufactured white goods but they're there.

Irish people have gotten poorer in terms of their ability to purchase locally produced goods and services, and that poverty has been disguised/offset by cheap imported goods.


A site in Dublin http://www.daft.ie/11557953 €200,000 for a 0.06 Acre Site, land is not cheap in the city. Those prices would certainly dissuade single unit building.

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:09 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
A site in Dublin http://www.daft.ie/11557953 €200,000 for a 0.06 Acre Site, land is not cheap in the city. Those prices would certainly dissuade single unit building.

Yes, but sites for one-off housing are always insanely priced, and Fairview would be above-average for Dublin. For multi-unit developments I've seen 50k cited recently. I can't find a link but here's one from last year:

http://www.thejournal.ie/developers-hou ... 8-May2016/

"It found that construction costs averaged around €150,000 per house, while other ‘soft’ charges made up the €180,000 difference. The largest of these was the price of buying land, which the SCSI calculated cost an average of €57,500 per unit."

Or maybe it was 50k per site for apartments, my Sunday brain is drawing blanks.

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:19 am 
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tommyt wrote:
I think higher housing costs are an inevitable consequence of the cost of consumer goods decreasing in real terms since the 1980s- The Dublin slum dweller 100 years ago spent 10-15% of their income on accommodation. A decent coat or pair of shoes could cost as much as 80% of your weekly income. Being in thrall to endless consumption has its downsides...


But the average house built 100 years ago in Ireland was a totally different from today. It had:

-no central heating
-likely no indoor plumbing
-open fireplaces
-no electrical wiring
-single-glazed leaky wooden windows
-no insultation
-no telephone connection

And so forth. Most rooms were really cold and draughty in winter and damp even in summer. You couldn't flick a switch for lighting and needed to huddle around an open fire to keep warm.

Even the most budget new build today has all of these, and much more. They are radically more comfortable to live in.

You simply cannot compare the cost of a house today and 50 or 100 years ago without looking at quality improvements.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:44 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
tommyt wrote:
I think higher housing costs are an inevitable consequence of the cost of consumer goods decreasing in real terms since the 1980s- The Dublin slum dweller 100 years ago spent 10-15% of their income on accommodation. A decent coat or pair of shoes could cost as much as 80% of your weekly income. Being in thrall to endless consumption has its downsides...


But the average house built 100 years ago in Ireland was a totally different from today. It had:

-no central heating
-likely no indoor plumbing
-open fireplaces
-no electrical wiring
-single-glazed leaky wooden windows
-no insultation
-no telephone connection

And so forth. Most rooms were really cold and draughty in winter and damp even in summer. You couldn't flick a switch for lighting and needed to huddle around an open fire to keep warm.

Even the most budget new build today has all of these, and much more. They are radically more comfortable to live in.

You simply cannot compare the cost of a house today and 50 or 100 years ago without looking at quality improvements.

on the other hand, construction of modern housing using modern materials is much cheaper than the traditional methods (of 100+ years ago) when windows and doors were all hand made (often on site) half the items on that list didn't even exist, or were only for the wealthy.

You strip out the costs of the modern "trimmings*" and the houses are still more expensive than those 100 years ago.
Government taxes & land prices make up a large part of that increase.

*many of which are not that expensive, but add a lot to the house.

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"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:18 pm 
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Posts: 4545
This has come up before. In real terms, almost everything is cheaper now than it was 50 or 100 years ago, in that to buy something, an average person has to sell less of his or her labour, wait less time for investments to return its cost, or dispose of fewer assets in exchange. Housing is just about the only thing to buck the trend.

Madness of Crowds wrote:
In 1952, the average UK salary was £589; in 2012 £27,000, an increase of 4484%, so relative to incomes, house prices have slightly less than doubled. They're certainly more expensive, but not quite as much so as a simplistic reading of that article would suggest.
What really stands out, is that the trend in the cost of housing is in the opposite direction to that for almost all other things. That is, in terms of pay-hours, food is between a half and a quarter of the price it was in 1952, while houses are twice the price.

http://www.moneywise.co.uk/cut-your-costs/family-life/jubilee-1952-or-2012-which-era-was-better (second hand data, I know, but it tallies with what I remember reading elsewhere).


dolanbaker wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
tommyt wrote:
I think higher housing costs are an inevitable consequence of the cost of consumer goods decreasing in real terms since the 1980s- The Dublin slum dweller 100 years ago spent 10-15% of their income on accommodation. A decent coat or pair of shoes could cost as much as 80% of your weekly income. Being in thrall to endless consumption has its downsides...


But the average house built 100 years ago in Ireland was a totally different from today. It had:

-no central heating
-likely no indoor plumbing
-open fireplaces
-no electrical wiring
-single-glazed leaky wooden windows
-no insultation
-no telephone connection

And so forth. Most rooms were really cold and draughty in winter and damp even in summer. You couldn't flick a switch for lighting and needed to huddle around an open fire to keep warm.

Even the most budget new build today has all of these, and much more. They are radically more comfortable to live in.

You simply cannot compare the cost of a house today and 50 or 100 years ago without looking at quality improvements.

on the other hand, construction of modern housing using modern materials is much cheaper than the traditional methods (of 100+ years ago) when windows and doors were all hand made (often on site) half the items on that list didn't even exist, or were only for the wealthy.

You strip out the costs of the modern "trimmings*" and the houses are still more expensive than those 100 years ago.
Government taxes & land prices make up a large part of that increase.

*many of which are not that expensive, but add a lot to the house.


The quality improvement is true for not just true of houses, but also of a lot of other quite durable goods. It's not only disposable tat and bling that's better.
Nevertheless, those other goods are both better and cheaper , while housing alone is both better and more expensive.
For most goods, quality and affordability have improved simultaneously. For housing, more or less uniquely, quality has come at the expense of affordability.
Housing provision stands alone in its lack of improved productivity.

Madness of Crowds wrote:
Another comparison to go with the food costs: small family cars:

Morris Minor £631 in 1952 (107% average wage)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Minor#Minor_Series_II

Ford Focus 1.6 TI-VCT Zetec (the Zetec is the best-selling part of the range, so it counts as typical and I've generously chosen a higher than base-level Zetec, to bump up the price a bit) £17,495 in 2012 (65% average wage)

http://www.carsession.com/car-news/2012-ford-focus-price-for-uk.html

What this doesn't capture, of course is that the 2012 Ford is an enormously better car in almost every way: more reliable, faster, more powerful (while still delivering somewhat better fuel economy for the extra performance), safer (in handling, braking and crash protection), with extra goodies, and needing less maintenance.

Houses are almost the only thing to buck the trend.


You all know the old chestnut about how computers have improved since the 1950s, compared with cars (nowadays, if your car were like a computer, it would travel at half the speed of light, do a million miles per gallon and last for ten thousand years between services), well If cars had improved in the same way as houses, then instead of having to buy a Morris Minor for €700, from your salary of €680, you'd be earning €35,000 and you'd be able to get an Austin Allegro that would only cost you €70,000. :wink: |O

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Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:32 am 
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So I wonder how many of these tenants completed the 2016 Census? Absolutely none of them maybe?

The policy of the previous FG/Lab government was to force rents and yields higher by restricting the supply of housing while ramping up demand with unrestricted and uncounted migration. This also had the 'benefit' of undermining labour rates for those at the margins of society.

All this handwringing and harsh words about scum landlords like Jason Orr and Joshua Cantwell is meaningless. Those scumbags are just responding to government policy in the most inevitable way that bottom feeders always do, but the real beneficiaries are the landlord class that see it as their right to make as much money as possible on the misery of others.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:45 am 
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Joined: Aug 30, 2015
Posts: 318
Coles2 wrote:
So I wonder how many of these tenants completed the 2016 Census? Absolutely none of them maybe?

The policy of the previous FG/Lab government was to force rents and yields higher by restricting the supply of housing while ramping up demand with unrestricted and uncounted migration. This also had the 'benefit' of undermining labour rates for those at the margins of society.

All this handwringing and harsh words about scum landlords like Jason Orr and Joshua Cantwell is meaningless. Those scumbags are just responding to government policy in the most inevitable way that bottom feeders always do, but the real beneficiaries are the landlord class that see it as their right to make as much money as possible on the misery of others.


If you insist on making continuous attacks on FG at least you should try to use arguments that are not complete nonsense. "Unrestricted immigration" is largely a consequence of our EU membership because we make it quite difficult to get in legally to work here from anywhere else. Are you advocating that we leave the EU?

It is also clear that FG have largely been a "laissez faire" /or "steady as she goes" pro-business party for a good many years now. To say that they are actively forcing rents higher is nonsense, they are just not particularly interested or inept, take your pick, in building lots of social housing, which would require tax rises to fund. Tax rises, even for arguably good causes, are always unpopular with those that don't benefit, a guaranteed vote loser, and not an obvious move for a party in a minority government to contemplate. So we end up with a largely laissez faire approach.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:52 am 
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Posts: 5911
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Coles2 wrote:
So I wonder how many of these tenants completed the 2016 Census? Absolutely none of them maybe?

The policy of the previous FG/Lab government was to force rents and yields higher by restricting the supply of housing while ramping up demand with unrestricted and uncounted migration. This also had the 'benefit' of undermining labour rates for those at the margins of society.

All this handwringing and harsh words about scum landlords like Jason Orr and Joshua Cantwell is meaningless. Those scumbags are just responding to government policy in the most inevitable way that bottom feeders always do, but the real beneficiaries are the landlord class that see it as their right to make as much money as possible on the misery of others.


Spot on.

All by design.

And lets not forget the deluded useful idiots of 'the left' whose advocacy as applied to such matters actually furthers the interests of those they claim to oppose.

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:59 am 
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We do have unlimited migration from EU, lesser so from Brazil. We are a destination country. Further, we do few checks like other EU countries on ability to self-support, burden on society etc.
FG want higher house prices, restrict supply, causing homelessness etc.
2014 - Finance Minister wants house prices to rise further and he says he fears another property bubble emerging in Dublin are exaggerated.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:26 pm 
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temene wrote:
We do have unlimited migration from EU, lesser so from Brazil. We are a destination country. Further, we do few checks like other EU countries on ability to self-support, burden on society etc.
FG want higher house prices, restrict supply, causing homelessness etc.
2014 - Finance Minister wants house prices to rise further and he says he fears another property bubble emerging in Dublin are exaggerated.


Have you listened to the interview on that link? I have no time for Noonan but he did not say that he wanted house prices to rise in that interview, that's typical rubbish journalism or click bait headlining from the Independent.

People stating the idea that FG actively want higher house prices, to restrict supply or cause homelessness is loony territory. As per my previous post you might be more credible if you pointed to their typically laissez faire attitude or ineptness.

By the way most of the Brazilians here have EU passports (usually Italian passports for some obscure reason). So once again this is a feature of our EU membership and something that any Irish government cannot easily prevent.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:34 pm 
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Posts: 1768
onioneater wrote:
People stating the idea that FG actively want higher house prices, to restrict supply or cause homelessness is loony territory. As per my previous post you might be more credible if you pointed to their typically laissez faire attitude or ineptness.
.


Of course they don't want to cause homelessness, it makes them look bad

But they can live with it as a down side of their goal of higher rents/house prices

I can't think of anything FG have done to lower prices

onioneater wrote:
By the way most of the Brazilians here have EU passports (usually Italian passports for some obscure reason). So once again this is a feature of our EU membership and something that any Irish government cannot easily prevent.


If you said Portuguese passports some might have believed you

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:58 pm 
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Posts: 3073
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onioneater wrote:
Have you listened to the interview on that link? I have no time for Noonan but he did not say that he wanted house prices to rise in that interview, that's typical rubbish journalism or click bait headlining from the Independent.
People stating the idea that FG actively want higher house prices, to restrict supply or cause homelessness is loony territory. As per my previous post you might be more credible if you pointed to their typically laissez faire attitude or ineptness. ...

We discussed Noonan's 2014 comments "We need to get property prices up another bit"
That means restricting supply and all its negative consequences for society

and if you go to INIS website, you'll see that BR, CN, IN, PH, RU.. are listed first
Image


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:03 pm 
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Joined: May 29, 2015
Posts: 3
onioneater wrote:
By the way most of the Brazilians here have EU passports (usually Italian passports for some obscure reason). So once again this is a feature of our EU membership and something that any Irish government cannot easily prevent.


FAKE Italian, Portuguese, Spanish passports and ID cards. The entire canteen where I work is now staffed with Brazilians. They all work fulltime, none of them study. I'm quite friendly with one and she told me how they do it. They come into the country on student visas, they buy fake EU ID cards from one of the above countries and are now able to work legally.

Hey presto, cheap labour from outside the EU. FG had to find it from somewhere when all the East European construction workers left, leaving us with lots of empty apartments that accidental landlords could no longer find people to rent.

I believe, although I haven't checked it yet, that Richard Bruton put in place a visa waiver programme between Brazil and Ireland which is due to run until 2020.


Last edited by wannabehomeowner on Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:03 pm 
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Location: North Dublin
the dude wrote:
onioneater wrote:
People stating the idea that FG actively want higher house prices, to restrict supply or cause homelessness is loony territory. As per my previous post you might be more credible if you pointed to their typically laissez faire attitude or ineptness.
.


Of course they don't want to cause homelessness, it makes them look bad

But they can live with it as a down side of their goal of higher rents/house prices

I can't think of anything FG have done to lower prices

onioneater wrote:
By the way most of the Brazilians here have EU passports (usually Italian passports for some obscure reason). So once again this is a feature of our EU membership and something that any Irish government cannot easily prevent.


If you said Portuguese passports some might have believed you


Onioneater is right though, regardless what you believe or not. And the reason is less obscure as you might think.
Have a read here as a starting point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Brazilians

Italy gives out Italian passports rather quickly if you can show Italian ancestry, Grandparent or great-grand parent is usually sufficient.
3-4 months if you are in Italy and have your paperwork in reasonably good order.

And as mentioned various times in other threads: Just because you have an EU passport doesn't mean you can automatically stay indefinitely without a job or a place to live or means to support you in any other EU country. Just because we don't bother checking or kicking them out doesn't mean we couldn't. There are very specific laws and rules guiding this, plus individual countries have quite a lot of leeway.
Of course, if they have a job and the means to support yourself, and all above board, it would be very difficult to kick these people out. But why would you want to if that's the case.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:05 pm 
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Posts: 742
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wannabehomeowner wrote:
onioneater wrote:
By the way most of the Brazilians here have EU passports (usually Italian passports for some obscure reason). So once again this is a feature of our EU membership and something that any Irish government cannot easily prevent.


FAKE Italian, Portuguese, Spanish passports and ID cards. The entire canteen where I work is now staffed with Brazilians. They all work fulltime, none of them study. I'm quite friendly with one and she told me how they do it. They come into the country on student visas, they buy fake EU ID cards from one of the above countries and are now able to work legally.

Hey presto, cheap labour from outside the EU. FG had to find it from somewhere when all the East European construction workers left, leaving us with lots of empty apartments that nobody could rent.

I believe, although I haven't checked it yet, that Richard Bruton put in place a visa waiver programme between Brazil and Ireland which is due to run until 2020.


That is some serious allegations to make. Have you reported this to the authorities?


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