Again, currently our population growth is largely being driven by natural growth, not immigration (indeed, assuming the official figures are correct, net migration is negative if you take into account returnees, and was just plain negative from 2009-2016). Natural growth really isn't something that we have much control over; I doubt the govt would sign off on a one-child policy. For that matter, we also can't control most immigration, short of leaving the EU. We need to accept the fact that the population is going to grow (and would do so even if we somehow stopped all immigration), and prepare accordingly.
Assuming that number of children stays at ~1.95 or falls, growth will stabilise in a few decades. The only way we get flat population is mass emigration, though.
EDIT: since 2009, not 1009. That would be silly.
This is not correct. The official figures are a mess. But if you do a small amount of digging, you get a very different assessment.
It is not correct to say that most threads here end in a discussion on migration.
Migration, however, is relevant to a property discussion forum such as this as people avail of accommodation and this drives demand which affects supply and cost. The demand can be direct – people buy their accommodation – or indirect – people seek to rent accommodation which others must acquire and make available for rent.
If you combine the publically available data from the CSO on population, births, deaths, immigration and emigration, from series such as:
• VSQ01: Births and Deaths Registered by Sex, Quarter and Statistic
• PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year
• PEA16: Estimated Emigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year
you get the following:
Quarter Census Births Deaths Difference Immigration Emigration Net Migration
2011Q2 4,588,252 18,381 7,277 11,104
2011Q3 19,222 6,911 12,311
2011Q4 17,097 6,714 10,383 35,533 53,733 -18,200
2012Q1 19,313 7,979 11,334
2012Q2 17,958 7,080 10,878
2012Q3 17,985 6,825 11,160
2012Q4 16,969 6,964 10,005 52,700 87,100 -34,400
2013Q1 17,563 8,347 9,216
2013Q2 17,107 7,644 9,463
2013Q3 17,729 6,983 10,746
2013Q4 16,531 7,044 9,487 55,900 89,000 -33,100
2014Q1 17,699 8,110 9,589
2014Q2 16,502 7,197 9,305
2014Q3 17,197 7,001 10,196
2014Q4 16,064 6,787 9,277 60,600 81,900 -21,300
2015Q1 17,183 8,604 8,579
2015Q2 16,064 7,565 8,499
2015Q3 17,128 6,851 10,277
2015Q4 15,534 6,932 8,602 69,300 80,900 -11,600
2016Q1 16,480 8,609 7,871
2016Q2 4,757,976 16,219 7,697 8,522 26,433 25,400 1,033
Since 2011 169,724 361,925 155,121 206,804 300,467 418,033 -117,567
I have looked at just the interval from the 2011 to the 2016 census.
In April 2011, the census counted 4,588,252 people.
In April 2016, the census counted 4,757,976 people. That is an increase of 169,724.
In the same interval there were 361,925 births and 155,121 deaths leaving a gross natural increase of 206,804. Now, some of the newly born people will have emigrated with their parents.
In the same interval, immigration was estimated at 300,467 and emigration at 418,033 leaving net estimated migration of -117,567.
Note that the migration data series are annual so I have used two third of the estimates for 2011 (for the interval May 2011 to Dec 2011) and one third of the estimates for 2016 (for Jan 2016 to Apr 2016) to align with the census dates. I assumed that migration is uniformly distributed throughout the year, which it is probably not correct (intuitively, it will probably be higher in the summer months and after events such as students leaving college) but the error will be small and there is no publically available data on migration activity by month.
In summary, the following should apply:
Population in Apr 2011
+ Births from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
- Deaths from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
+ Immigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
- Emigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
= Population in Apr 2016
The official numbers are:
Population in Apr 2011 4,588,252
Births from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016 361,925
Deaths from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016 155,121
Immigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016 300,467
Emigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016 418,033
Population in Apr 2016 4,677,490
However, the Apr 2016 census counted a population of 4,757,976, a difference of 80,487.
The census counted population increase from Apr 2011 to April 2016 was 169,724, 80,000 more than the estimate.
The unaccounted-for 80,000 people are all probably migrants in the age cohort 20-45. This group is more likely to look for accommodation, have children, not die, commit crimes, use transport services, be economically active, etc. than other age cohorts.
The “not die” comment is important because it means that they will not form any significant portion of the number of deaths recorded in this interval. (For more information on age-specific mortality rates see Irish Life Tables Number 16 http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... 2010-2012/
This assumes that the census numbers are themselves accurate, which I do not believe they are.
Some of these uncounted migrants will be returning Irish emigrants. There are no accurate numbers for this.
TCD published a study in 2014: New Irish Families: A Profile of Second Generation Children and their Families – see https://www.tcd.ie/merc/publications/Ne ... 202014.pdf
This quotes birth data from 2012 from the wonderfully named Healthcare Pricing Office:
One-in-four (24%) children born in Ireland in 2012 had a non-Irish born mother. A closer look at these births reveals that almost half of the ‘non-Irish’ group was made up of mothers from the EU Accession countries.
Applying these proportions to the births from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016, you get 271,444 “Irish” births and 90,481 births to migrants.
This does not contain details on births where to a non-Irish born mother and an Irish born father.
The latest birth statistics available from for 2014: http://www.hpo.ie/latest_hipe_nprs_repo ... t_2014.pdf
22% of births in 2014 were to mothers born outside Ireland compared to 25% in 2010 and 17% in 2005.
The proportions are similar to those quoted in the TCD report.
So, you could argue with some accuracy that in the last five years, all of the population increase of 169,724 is due to migrants
comprising 80,486 uncounted immigrants and 90,481 births to migrant mothers, a total of 170,967.