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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:11 pm 
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And is this what we want our children competing against?
At what point do we say "stop we don't want to keep slipping until we are a third world country "


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:14 pm 
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I'm surprised estate agents are not advertising a 3 bed house as 'comfortably fits 15 singles'.
Market opportunity to increase their commission missed.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:54 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
And what would happen if there was a fire and several died?
Would you still say the State was right to not get involved?


Whats wrong with notifying these tenants of the risks and letting them decide what they want to do while giving the landlord time to resolve/mitigate the risks?
The reaction was excessive and it's over regulation imo.

Theres risks in everything, take driving, people are aware of the risks but choose to drive anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:07 pm 
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conork wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
And what would happen if there was a fire and several died?
Would you still say the State was right to not get involved?


Whats wrong with notifying these tenants of the risks and letting them decide what they want to do while giving the landlord time to resolve/mitigate the risks?
The reaction was excessive and it's over regulation imo.

Theres risks in everything, take driving, people are aware of the risks but choose to drive anyway.

Excellent trolling.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:27 pm 
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Indeed. I shouldn't have bitten in the first place


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Ok then, well I guess there's 40 people kicked out of their home/shelter for their own good...
What could possibly go wrong.

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Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
Milton Friedman best moments


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:15 pm 
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conork wrote:
Ok then, well I guess there's 40 people kicked out of their home/shelter for their own good...
What could possibly go wrong.

sometimes bad things happen to good people. sometimes foreigners ignorant of local planning and health and safety laws fall foul of wannabe tenement slumlords.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:41 pm 
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Worstpigeon wrote:
Again, currently our population growth is largely being driven by natural growth, not immigration (indeed, assuming the official figures are correct, net migration is negative if you take into account returnees, and was just plain negative from 2009-2016). Natural growth really isn't something that we have much control over; I doubt the govt would sign off on a one-child policy. For that matter, we also can't control most immigration, short of leaving the EU. We need to accept the fact that the population is going to grow (and would do so even if we somehow stopped all immigration), and prepare accordingly.

Assuming that number of children stays at ~1.95 or falls, growth will stabilise in a few decades. The only way we get flat population is mass emigration, though.

EDIT: since 2009, not 1009. That would be silly.


This is not correct. The official figures are a mess. But if you do a small amount of digging, you get a very different assessment.

It is not correct to say that most threads here end in a discussion on migration.

Migration, however, is relevant to a property discussion forum such as this as people avail of accommodation and this drives demand which affects supply and cost. The demand can be direct – people buy their accommodation – or indirect – people seek to rent accommodation which others must acquire and make available for rent.

If you combine the publically available data from the CSO on population, births, deaths, immigration and emigration, from series such as:

• VSQ01: Births and Deaths Registered by Sex, Quarter and Statistic
• PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year
• PEA16: Estimated Emigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year

you get the following:

Code:
Quarter          Census      Births      Deaths  Difference  Immigration    Emigration  Net Migration
2011Q2         4,588,252      18,381       7,277      11,104
2011Q3                        19,222       6,911      12,311
2011Q4                        17,097       6,714      10,383        35,533        53,733       -18,200
2012Q1                        19,313       7,979      11,334
2012Q2                        17,958       7,080      10,878
2012Q3                        17,985       6,825      11,160
2012Q4                        16,969       6,964      10,005        52,700        87,100       -34,400
2013Q1                        17,563       8,347       9,216
2013Q2                        17,107       7,644       9,463
2013Q3                        17,729       6,983      10,746
2013Q4                        16,531       7,044       9,487        55,900        89,000       -33,100
2014Q1                        17,699       8,110       9,589
2014Q2                        16,502       7,197       9,305
2014Q3                        17,197       7,001      10,196
2014Q4                        16,064       6,787       9,277        60,600        81,900       -21,300
2015Q1                        17,183       8,604       8,579
2015Q2                        16,064       7,565       8,499
2015Q3                        17,128       6,851      10,277
2015Q4                        15,534       6,932       8,602        69,300        80,900       -11,600
2016Q1                        16,480       8,609       7,871
2016Q2         4,757,976      16,219       7,697       8,522        26,433        25,400         1,033
Since 2011       169,724     361,925     155,121     206,804       300,467       418,033      -117,567


I have looked at just the interval from the 2011 to the 2016 census.

In April 2011, the census counted 4,588,252 people.

In April 2016, the census counted 4,757,976 people. That is an increase of 169,724.

In the same interval there were 361,925 births and 155,121 deaths leaving a gross natural increase of 206,804. Now, some of the newly born people will have emigrated with their parents.

In the same interval, immigration was estimated at 300,467 and emigration at 418,033 leaving net estimated migration of -117,567.

Note that the migration data series are annual so I have used two third of the estimates for 2011 (for the interval May 2011 to Dec 2011) and one third of the estimates for 2016 (for Jan 2016 to Apr 2016) to align with the census dates. I assumed that migration is uniformly distributed throughout the year, which it is probably not correct (intuitively, it will probably be higher in the summer months and after events such as students leaving college) but the error will be small and there is no publically available data on migration activity by month.

In summary, the following should apply:

Population in Apr 2011
+ Births from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
- Deaths from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
+ Immigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
- Emigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016
= Population in Apr 2016

The official numbers are:

Code:
Population in Apr 2011                       4,588,252
Births from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016                361,925
Deaths from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016                155,121
Immigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016           300,467
Emigration from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016            418,033
Population in Apr 2016                       4,677,490


However, the Apr 2016 census counted a population of 4,757,976, a difference of 80,487.

The census counted population increase from Apr 2011 to April 2016 was 169,724, 80,000 more than the estimate.

The unaccounted-for 80,000 people are all probably migrants in the age cohort 20-45. This group is more likely to look for accommodation, have children, not die, commit crimes, use transport services, be economically active, etc. than other age cohorts.

The “not die” comment is important because it means that they will not form any significant portion of the number of deaths recorded in this interval. (For more information on age-specific mortality rates see Irish Life Tables Number 16 http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... 2010-2012/.)

This assumes that the census numbers are themselves accurate, which I do not believe they are.

Some of these uncounted migrants will be returning Irish emigrants. There are no accurate numbers for this.

TCD published a study in 2014: New Irish Families: A Profile of Second Generation Children and their Families – see https://www.tcd.ie/merc/publications/Ne ... 202014.pdf

This quotes birth data from 2012 from the wonderfully named Healthcare Pricing Office:

Quote:
One-in-four (24%) children born in Ireland in 2012 had a non-Irish born mother. A closer look at these births reveals that almost half of the ‘non-Irish’ group was made up of mothers from the EU Accession countries.


Applying these proportions to the births from Apr 2011 to Apr 2016, you get 271,444 “Irish” births and 90,481 births to migrants.

This does not contain details on births where to a non-Irish born mother and an Irish born father.

The latest birth statistics available from for 2014: http://www.hpo.ie/latest_hipe_nprs_repo ... t_2014.pdf.

Quote:
22% of births in 2014 were to mothers born outside Ireland compared to 25% in 2010 and 17% in 2005.


The proportions are similar to those quoted in the TCD report.

So, you could argue with some accuracy that in the last five years, all of the population increase of 169,724 is due to migrants comprising 80,486 uncounted immigrants and 90,481 births to migrant mothers, a total of 170,967.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 7:30 pm 
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RIP another thread. Three posters have nine (at my last count) anti-immigration threads going.

We had this same problem with religion until ps created the Catholic Derailents Thread. Can I suggest that someone creates an Immigration Derailment Thread so that the next time someone wants to talk about how something is bad because immigrants it can just happen in there?

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:05 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
RIP another thread. Three posters have nine (at my last count) anti-immigration threads going.

We had this same problem with religion until ps created the Catholic Derailents Thread. Can I suggest that someone creates an Immigration Derailment Thread so that the next time someone wants to talk about how something is bad because immigrants it can just happen in there?


But the 40 tenants in the house were immigrants, why is this the one and only issue you want all talk about to be banned, if you have a property website the effect immigration has on rents and house prices needs to be talked about

As far as I can tell nobody posting on the site wants a total ban on immigration, where as you seem to want no boarders and want to stop anyone with an alternative view saying anything, very strange

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Last edited by the dude on Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:25 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
RIP another thread. Three posters have nine (at my last count) anti-immigration threads going.

We had this same problem with religion until ps created the Catholic Derailents Thread. Can I suggest that someone creates an Immigration Derailment Thread so that the next time someone wants to talk about how something is bad because immigrants it can just happen in there?


Do you want to derail immigration? Should we derail immigration? Could we derail immigration?
:?: Is it possible to derail immigrants who arrive by road, sea and air, rather than rail?
Would such a thread inevitably turn into a train wreck? :?

Maybe we should have a bad wordplay derailment thread. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:41 pm 
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You cannot ignore Immigration when it comes to housing given where we are at. It's impossible to do so.

Did we have this level of a housing crisis back in 2009 or 2010 say? No, rents were collapsing and landlords struggling to fill rooms.
What has happened since then? Well, more people are supposed to have left the country than have come in- thats the official stats. There may have been more births than deaths but I doubt if many 6 years olds are trying t get on the property ladder currently.

So why the crisis? Whatever about a lack of houses to buy, why is there such a collossal shortage of rental properties?


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:59 pm 
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Posts: 399
Mantissa wrote:
RIP another thread. Three posters have nine (at my last count) anti-immigration threads going.

We had this same problem with religion until ps created the Catholic Derailents Thread. Can I suggest that someone creates an Immigration Derailment Thread so that the next time someone wants to talk about how something is bad because immigrants it can just happen in there?


How are these comments anti-migrant?

How is providing facts and analysis wrong?

The only wrong here is an attempt to conceal facts to support ideaology.

Hidden and ignored societal change and their impacts, including those on property, are always wrong,

Facts always trump dogma.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:49 am 
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On the census numbers differing from the CSO population estimates thing, by the way, one thing to note is that the census does catch visitors; some of the 80k discrepancy will be made of of them. Just looked this up, and I'm kind of astonished by the numbers, but there are 56k hotel rooms in Ireland, plus ~20k other guest accommodation rooms: http://www.failteireland.ie/FailteIrela ... f?ext=.pdf

There are also an unclear number of Airbnb and other fly-by-night room rentals, which won't be counted here.

Of course, not all of these will be filled, and not all will be non-national guests, and likely the rates of compliance are not great. But it's probably a part of the discrepancy alright.

Edit: Also, of course, the base figure for the CSO estimates is presumably the previous census (though I don't know how, or if, they account for the hotel issue). If rates of compliance differ from census to census (which seems at least plausible) you'd expect some sort of discrepancy.


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 Post subject: Re: 40 tenants in one house
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:51 pm 
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The CSO do visit every hotel on the morning after the census, similarly hostels. I think there's a greatly simplified form for visitors. They also make an effort to count rough sleepers.


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