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 Post subject: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:46 am 
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http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/tena ... 66571.html

Quote:
One in five people are now living in rental accommodation in this country, according to the latest figures from the Residential Tenancies Board.

The numbers also show that prices are continuing to rise.

Rents went up by 8.6% between July and September, compared to the same time last year.


I`d love to know the breakdown of owners/renters/state accommodation

From an old CSO press release in 2012:
http://www.cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pres ... rourheads/
Quote:
Significant increase in rented accommodation

The number of households in rented accommodation increased by 47 per cent to 474,788, up from 323,007 in 2006. The overall percentage of households renting their accommodation rose to 29 per cent causing home ownership rates to fall sharply from 74.7 per cent in 2006 to 69.7 per cent in 2011.


Quote:
Strong growth in apartments


The increase in apartments as an accommodation type in Ireland continued between 2006 and 2011 with 177,587 occupied apartments in 2011, an increase of 27 per cent on the 2006 figure of 139,872. Apartments comprised 10.9 per cent of all occupied households in 2011 and accounted for almost one-third of all household types in Dublin City, the highest of any local authority area.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 10:48 pm 
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The CSO will have updated data on this from Census 2016 early next year I would think.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:26 pm 
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Will be interesting to see how much damage has been inflicted on Millennials by the Baby Boomers extend and pretend policies.

There could be an intercensus drop of 100,000 in that cohort from emigration alone.

Many then permanently locked out of homeowneership by the Namawinelake and the weak government. Completely crushed out of affording a family.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:01 pm 
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Property demand, including that for rental accommodation, is and always will be about demographics.

One major factor in the growth of renting is the growth in the number of migrants.

Unfortunately, the sources of accurate information on this is, I feel, of questionable quality.

I question the CSO’s demographic data and the accuracy of the census data. I feel the CSO are not counting the population accurately. I feel that, in particular, the number of migrants

For example, the CSO publish annual population estimates. The estimate for 2016 (see PEA01: Population Estimates (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex and Year - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) was 4,673,700.

The 2016 census counted a population of 4,757,976 (see EP001: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2011 to 2016 by Sex, Province County or City, CensusYear and Statistic http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)

That’s an error of 84,276 between the 2016 estimate and actual.

The CSO migration data is probably the major source of this error.

In the time series PEA21: Estimated Population by Sex, Nationality and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) which still has the inaccurate population number of 4,673,700, they estimate that 593,900 are migrants living in Ireland.

Of the extra 84,276 between the 2015 estimate and actual, most would be migrants. So that is an estimate of 678,176 migrants living in Ireland. That is 14% of the population, according to the CSO.

Migration estimates are contained in PEA03 Estimated Migration by Age Group, Sex, Inward or Outward Flow and Year(http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal ... ssued.aspx). From 2001 to 2016, the CSO estimate that immigration in this interval was 1,188,000. Emigration is estimated as 905,400 giving net migration of 282,100.

This shows the CSO’s estimate of immigration from 1987 to 2016:

Image

So lots of immigration in the boom years.

This shows the CSO’s estimate of the proportion of immigrants in various age groups:

Image

Not unsurprisingly, most immigrants are aged 15 – 44.

If you look at the series FNA02: Employment Activity of Foreign Nationals by Broad Nationality Group, Year of Entry and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire ... =0&PXSId=0) which contains details on the PPS numbers issued from 2002 to 2014, the numbers are:

Code:
2002              79,859
2003              72,312
2004             116,207
2005             169,886
2006             202,395
2007             187,761
2008             127,048
2009              62,984
2010              59,310
2011              58,258
2012              64,193
2013              75,812
2014              85,724
Total          1,361,749


So immigration from 2001 to 2016 of 1,188,000 but 1,361,749 PPSNs issued in the shorter interval of 2002 to 2014.

Now, there is abuse of PPSNs and there are people with PPSNs who are welfare tourists. But you need a PPSN to get pretty much any service:

• Any Social Welfare services
• Any Revenue Schemes including Taxation
• Pupil ID
• HSE services including Medical Card and Drug Payment Schemes
• Child Immunisation
• Housing Grants
• Driver Licenses

The Department of Social Protection (DSP) also publish PPSN statistics, less than helpfully in PDF files, one for each year at http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal ... ssued.aspx

When you consolidate the DSP PPSN details with the CSO PPSN and migration data you get:

Code:
       Year    All PPSN    Ireland PPSN    Foreign PPSN DSP    Foreign PPSN CSO    Difference    Emigration
        2016     135,525          56,402              79,123                                          76,200
        2015     169,711          75,008              94,703                                          80,900
        2014     172,463          76,091              96,372              85,724        10,648        81,900
        2013     164,182          78,630              85,552              75,812         9,740        89,000
        2012     154,657          81,331              73,326              64,193         9,133        87,100
        2011     153,050          85,210              67,840              58,258         9,582        80,600
        2010     154,168          85,130              69,038              59,310         9,728        69,200
        2009     165,895          85,909              79,986              62,984        17,002        72,000
        2008     247,431          91,280             156,151             127,048        29,103        49,200
        2007     305,610          87,559             218,051             187,761        30,290        46,300
        2006     311,850          80,788             231,062             202,395        28,667        36,000
        2005     271,202          80,293             190,909             169,886        21,023        29,400
        2004     219,954          86,691             133,263             116,207        17,056        26,500
        2003     191,565          86,947             104,618              72,312        32,306        29,300
        2002     215,536          49,866             165,670              79,859        85,811        25,600
        2001     221,956         109,577             112,379                                          26,200
      Total    3,254,755       1,296,712           1,958,043                           310,089       905,400


So:

• DSP issued 1,958,043 foreign PPSNs from 2001 to Sept 2016.

• CSO estimate immigration (gross and not net) of 905,400 in the same interval

• Even in the interval 2002 to 2014 for which the CSP published foreign PPSN details, there is a difference of 310,089 between the CSO and DSP numbers

That means that the Department of Social Protection issued more than twice the number of PPSNs to non-nationals than the CSO estimate immigrated into Ireland.

That is a potentially a lot of extra people looking for rental accommodation.

It is also a lot of inconsistency and lack of certainty.

It points to possibly much larger numbers of non-national migrants than officially stated.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:09 am 
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Joined: Feb 19, 2009
Posts: 368
ChickenParmentier wrote:
So:

• DSP issued 1,958,043 foreign PPSNs from 2001 to Sept 2016.

• CSO estimate immigration (gross and not net) of 905,400 in the same interval

It points to possibly much larger numbers of non-national migrants than officially stated.


Excellent work ChickenParmentier.
No doubt this will be picked up by the Irish Times and RTE, maybe a Prime Time Special. Or if not, the immigration control party in the Dail... OK, never mind.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:15 am 
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ChickenParmentier wrote:
So:

• DSP issued 1,958,043 foreign PPSNs from 2001 to Sept 2016.

• CSO estimate immigration (gross and not net) of 905,400 in the same interval

• Even in the interval 2002 to 2014 for which the CSP published foreign PPSN details, there is a difference of 310,089 between the CSO and DSP numbers

That means that the Department of Social Protection issued more than twice the number of PPSNs to non-nationals than the CSO estimate immigrated into Ireland.
That is a potentially a lot of extra people looking for rental accommodation.
It is also a lot of inconsistency and lack of certainty.
It points to possibly much larger numbers of non-national migrants than officially stated.

This ^^^^
I have been saying this for the past few years to anyone who'd listen and beyond that! I could see it with my own eyes.
The small estate I used to live in went from practically all Irish (some English also) in the early noughties to close to 20% Eastern Europeans/Middle Eastern/some French/Italians by 2008. And there's a lot more of them per house than houses with the locals.
I walk to/from work every day through D12 into D8 and I zig zag through several working class and some deprived residential areas. It's a long walk and over time you see the people who live in the houses. And a lot of the houses where 'Dubs' would have lived for generations are now occipied by Eastern Europeans and Muslims in the main.

Hard to get facts to back this up. Surely there's a question there for the CSO to answer as to why there is such a discrepancy


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:43 am 
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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:56 am 
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FreeFallin wrote:
occipied by Eastern Europeans and Muslims in the main.

Where are the Muslims from and what religion are the Eastern Europeans?
(some of them might even be atheists)


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:04 am 
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Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
occipied by Eastern Europeans and Muslims in the main.

Where are the Muslims from and what religion are the Eastern Europeans?
(some of them might even be atheists)

You can be pedantic all you want. Just saying what I'm seeing.
Have you anything to contribute? :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:59 am 
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Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
occipied by Eastern Europeans and Muslims in the main.

Where are the Muslims from and what religion are the Eastern Europeans?
(some of them might even be atheists)


Bunch of them seem to be illegals from Pakistan by way of U.K.
They are good at keeping their heads down and themselves to themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:08 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
Hard to get facts to back this up. Surely there's a question there for the CSO to answer as to why there is such a discrepancy


That's easy - these lads dont like filling out forms!


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:30 pm 
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The government and public service will continue ignore this problem as it has always done. The public service does not use population numbers to perform any planning of the need for services. So why start now?

The very large discrepancy between the immigration numbers and the number of PPSNs issued indicate a one or more of a number of problems:

• Undercounted immigration/undercounted population
• PPSN abuse
• Large volumes of short-term and repeated immigration with no PPSN reuse

However, the people who will pay attention to these numbers are those who will identify the business and financial opportunity and are in a position to take advantage.

There is a larger demand for rental and purchased property in the Dublin area than the official numbers might indicate.

There is a slight chance that the current Dublin property price bubble will deflate if supply increases. But given the casual incompetence of all concerned in such planning this is not likely in the short-term of at least five years. By nature, I am quite conservative and take only a five-year view.

There is simply no pipeline of new properties in Dublin. The pipeline takes years to replenish and there no efforts under way to reduce these delays.

In the context of free movement of people within the EU, immigration has lost much of its previous meaning. This also means in many instances that once migrants from outside the EU enter the EU anywhere, they have (reasonably) free movement thereafter within the EU. Previous control structures are absent for a large source of immigrants.

However, this does not mean that such immigration is without consequence. Immigrants require shelter, health care, schooling for their children, criminal services, entertainment, retail and transport services to move them around. They avail of those services and impact other who also want to avail of those services.

Many of those services originate with the state.

So, for example, roads and public transport are busier, pubs are busier, those in the immigrant are group have more children and using hospital services and there is more of the casual crime associated with the age group of immigrants.

Uncounted immigration has a disproportionate effect on these as 80% or more of migrants are aged 20-35 and are thus economically active as well as being active in other areas such as entertaining and crime.

This means that they also want accommodation and are competing for available accommodation with others. They are more likely to rent and so will have a disproportionate effect on the residential rental market.

It does show that the CSO has lost track of counting migration. Their dead reckoning approach to estimating inter-censal population by taking the starting population, adding births, subtracting deaths, adding estimated immigration and subtracting estimated emigration does not work. The errors occur in immigration and emigration estimates alone. In the interval 2011 to 2016, a period of relatively low economic activity, the official error was nearly 100,000. The actual error will be higher.

I really doubt the accuracy of the 2016 census. I do not have the time to derive an accurate estimate of uncounted additional population. That would need to validate the CSO and DSP data by engaging with those organisations, getting access to internal data, questioning the people who collect the data, collating and cross-referencing data from other sources that contain indicators of economic activity and associated population size such as direct and indirect taxation, checking and rechecking. However, I feel that it is probably somewhere in the range 100,000 – 200,000 but it could be much larger.

A person, group, organisation or society can only absorb so much change without their being negative effects caused by stresses. Most of this immigration has occurred in the last 25 years. Prior to that, immigration consisted mainly of returning Irish emigrants. So in that 25 years, at least 15% of the Irish population changed to consist of non-nationals, with the likelihood the true proportion is quite a bit higher. That is a rate of change that took longer in other countries such as the UK or US. That rapid change over a short interval is a potential source of real problems.

Ignoring the problem will not make it go away.

While I have always felt there is a large gap in the political spectrum for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party with a strong focus on law and order, there is also now a potential gap for an anti-immigrant Irish nationalist party. This is more likely because of the fragmentation of more conventional politics.

The fragmented left could just as easily fragment further into a UKIP/FN-like working class party. There is an opportunity for an aspiring demagogue. Little moustache. Check. Coloured shirts. Check. Adapted ancient symbol as party logo. Check. I fancy the indalo could be reused here.

You may not like the possibility. But it is possible nonetheless. In the UK, In the 2015 general election, UKIP got over 12.5% of the vote – one in eight voters.

So, buy property in Dublin if you can. If you have cash, buy rental property. Be selective about your tenants because you can. Aim to sell it in less than five years.

If you are renting, be afraid. Start looking at alternatives: two or more small families sharing a bigger house, fixing your rent for a long interval, sharing with an older relative in return for providing basic services, moving outside Dublin where the property market is less turbulent, emigrating.

It is not pretty out there and there are no reasons to believe it will get any less ugly for some time.

I do not like this. But not liking it will not make it go away.

There is a limit on how much people can afford to pay for property purchase or rent. But those annual affordability/unaffordability indices show these thresholds are much higher than the levels where any rational and intuitive view might place them. People can tolerate a much higher level of unpleasantness than you might believe. This is called hedonic adaptation. Prepare to be hedonically adapted.


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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:17 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
time you see the people who live in the houses. And a lot of the houses where 'Dubs' would have lived for generations are now occipied by Eastern Europeans and Muslims in the main.


Check the schools in D24 for amount of foreigners. Future ghettos.

In last 5 years the numbers of Brazilians and 'covered' muslim people increased a lot, I don't believe CSO numbers. Irish media is constantly throwing some positive stories about islam or muslims, no one is brave enough to discuss potential risks due to welfare budgets.
Ireland is moving towards Swedish "Don't ask, don't tell" censorship. History of other countries show that problems usually get bigger in second generation of low paid or welfare dependant families.

I expect massive problems in Ireland in next 10-15 years. Either with my polish comrades or more likely kids of 3rd world immigrants.

Irish economy depends on foreign cheap workforce, there was wave of new EU, now there is a wave of Brazilians. It's all ok when there are jobs, if they are gone, they are first to go. I don't understand why we have so many non-EU immigrants with no skills or education, when there is plenty of them here or elsewhere in EU.

Just wait till Universal Basic Income is introduced, Ireland will get at least 300k immigrants per year..

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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:21 pm 
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mightyz wrote:
. I don't understand why we have so many non-EU immigrants with no skills or education, when there is plenty of them here or elsewhere in EU.

Italy has loads of undocumented unskilled north african aged care assistants, it's actually the norm there now with their demographics so fubared. The racket is a modern day mafia slave trade, fixed terms of servitude with no rights and constant risk of deportation.

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 Post subject: Re: 20% Are Renters
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:56 pm 
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ChickenParmentier wrote:

You may not like the possibility. But it is possible nonetheless. In the UK, In the 2015 general election, UKIP got over 12.5% of the vote – one in eight voters.

The funny thing is is that UKip are most popular where there was the least amount of immigrants! I'm temporarily residing in such a constituency and the trend isn't multicultural but a strong sense of entitlement, resentment for Londoners and high Daily Mail and Express readership. It's more about post industrial decline really, which Ireland never really experienced.

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