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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:35 pm 
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Saw Dan O'Brien post this on Twitter

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/ ... 0292746240

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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:38 am 
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Should we be concerned with the slowdown in tax revenue growth?

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/ ... wn-in.html


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:02 pm 
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http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/up ... tation.pdf

2017 figures are out

Bad news
Income tax -236m below target
VAT -72m below target
Excise -60m below target

Good news
Corporation Tax +486m ahead of target

Overall, CT put us +116m ahead of target


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:33 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/180103-End-December-2017-Exchequer-Returns-Presentation.pdf

2017 figures are out

Bad news
Income tax -236m below target
VAT -72m below target
Excise -60m below target

Good news
Corporation Tax +486m ahead of target

Overall, CT put us +116m ahead of target


CT is the new stamp duty

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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:36 pm 
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Income tax down despite record numbers at work. A lot more minimum wage jobs about the place now v's 2007?


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:50 pm 
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After excluding the windfall from the partial AIB float, we are in deficit to the tune of €1.5bn with the assistance of CT.

OECD average for "Taxes on corporate income and gains" is 2.8% of GDP. UK is also at this level.

Source: https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-on-corporate-profits.htm

For Ireland lets forget about GDP, GNI* is about 200bn. So the €8.2bn of CT is around 4% of that.

If 2.8% is sustainable long term, we are getting a possibly temporary windfall of €2.6bn a year from excess CT.

So in reality we're running a €3.7bn deficit within spending of €56.5bn.

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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:02 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
Income tax down despite record numbers at work. A lot more minimum wage jobs about the place now v's 2007?


PER CSO QNHS releases

Persons in Labour Force
Q2 2007: 2,243.6K
Q2 2017: 2,204.5K

Employmed
Q2 2007: 2,136.1K
Q2 2017: 2,063.0K

Unemployed
Q2 2007: 107.5K
Q2 2017: 141.5K

Participation Rate (no. of persons in the labour force expressed as a % of the total population aged 15 or over)
Q2 2007: 64.1%
Q2 2017: 59.9%

Figures are still down vs 2007 but far better last few years. I agree, those joining the workforce appear to be in lower paid work. Casual employment has remained steady at 20% so that's not the cause.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:59 pm 
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More fundamentals underpinning the high accomodation costs for Paddy.
Don't think income tax is down year on year. Just behind dept of finance 'profile'. It's probably the case income tax is driven by higher volumes paying tax (including maybe more self employed) rather than pay rates rising.
10% price rises not really justified in that world outside sherry fitz press releases.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:05 am 
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IIRC income tax is up 7% YoY but behind profile due to a modeling error related to the change in USC.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:38 am 
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Department warns that corporation tax is a risk

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3349751

Quote:
A week after announcing a record annual tax take for the State, the Department of Finance has raised concerns about the future sustainability of Ireland’s €8 billion corporation tax income.

In a report on tax trends and their impact on the public finances, the department said revenue from the business tax had effectively doubled in the past three years amid a massive transfer of multinational assets here and increased corporate profitability generally.

The report cautioned, however, that nearly two-thirds of tax receipts came from a small number of firms paying in excess of €10 million annually and that almost 40 per cent of total revenue could be linked to just 10 companies.

“This highlights the potential exposure to idiosyncratic or form-specific shocks,” it said.

The department said both the rising share of corporation tax receipts within overall taxation –it now accounts for 16 per cent of total revenue – and the concentration of receipts within a small number of firms posed a significant risk to the public finances.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:23 am 
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Finally the penny drops, it's a good job we didn't spend the excess in the last few budgets on current spending like public sector pay, tax cuts and welfare increases....oh

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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:42 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:

So in reality we're running a €3.7bn deficit within spending of €56.5bn.


France has not run a balanced budget since 1974 and it's not on the verge of default or hyperinflation.

It is fine to run modest deficits as economies generally grow over the long run.

A national budget is not the same as that of a tennis club.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:51 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
France has not run a balanced budget since 1974 and it's not on the verge of default or hyperinflation.

It is fine to run modest deficits as economies generally grow over the long run.

Fine according to whom? Ireland is not able to make independent decisions in these matters, we are governed by EU rules.

Government still needs to meet a structural deficit target of 0.5% of GDP in 2018 (which strips out cyclical swings and one-offs such as bank bailouts).

What is the structural deficit? It's a nonsense concept. How can anyone possibly predict the path of the Irish economy? Use the Philips Curve?! Ha!

Show me one economic prediction of Ireland in 2018 made five years ago that turned out accurate.

The ESRI tried, using all of their local knowledge. This is what they wrote in 2014:

"House prices reach a new equilibrium and housing investment is consistent with long-run stability in the housing market."

Source: The Structural Balance for Ireland
https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=w ... 7j9ZdnCz3w

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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:46 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
France has not run a balanced budget since 1974 and it's not on the verge of default or hyperinflation.

It is fine to run modest deficits as economies generally grow over the long run.


If you start off with a debt to GDP ratio of 50%, and if you are happy ending up at 100%, and if interest rates are at multigenerational lows...


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 Post subject: Re: Government Tax Receipt Figures
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:49 am 
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Also, isn't France still in a deficit reduction programme?

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