Introduction This question is very relevant to a property discussion forum such as this as people avail of accommodation and this drives demand which affects supply and cost. The demand can be direct – people buy their accommodation – or indirect – people seek to rent accommodation which others must acquire and make available for rent.
It also has potential wider social, cultural, economic and political relevance that I will cover briefly later.
So understanding demand is key to understanding trends in residential property prices and likely future trends.
Supply is easily ascertained through information on planning and building. Also, planning and building occur so slowly that the trends can be accurately determined for up to five years into the future. It is very unlikely that any residential property that will be available sometime in the next five years is not now at some discernible state in the planning or building pipeline.
I have long been disillusioned and dissatisfied with the official population statistics produced by the CSO. Their publically available information contains many internal inconsistencies – numbers stated in one area not agreeing with those elsewhere. However, my problems with the information are greater because I feel the CSO is undercounting the population size. I simply doubt their quality and accuracy of their data
From direct project experience, I know that the public service makes almost no use of CSO population data in planning and making decisions on policies. This is not because the departments feel the information is not accurate. Rather, it is because departments do not proactively plan. They react. The Department of Education does not seek to analyse the demand for education facilities – first, second and third level – in given locations and numbers of places in these facilities based on population. They just react after the fact to changes in demand.
The Department of the Environment does no plan for housing or infrastructure based on likely population changes. Again, they just react after the event at some considerable lag.
The Department of the Transport does not plan for roads or other transport infrastructure based on likely population changes and movement models. As with others, they just react after the event.
The information contained in this analysis comes for the limited publically available sources: Revenue Commissioners, Department of Social Protection, Department of Education, Central Statistics Office, Department of the Environment. It attempts to check data consistency across these channels. A more thorough analysis would require engagement with these organisations to attempt to resolve the data issues.
This is not an academic study. I do not have the time to apply such rigour to any analysis. There are plenty of state-funded institutions such as the ESRI and the CSO that could devote their large taxpayer-funded resources to such a study.
As usual, this is too long because I have shown my calculations and source material so others can review and question it, if they see fit. There are, unfortunately, not too many pictures to make it easier to read and understand.
There are all the usual issues of inconsistent start and end dates of data series that need to be addressed to create a coherent view.
Some Issues With CSO Population Data There are real issues with the CSO’s population data.
The CSO publish population estimates. Some of the relevant data series are:
• PEA01: Population Estimates (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)
• PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)
They each give the estimate of the population in 2016 as 4,673,700.
The preliminary 2016 census of population from series such as:
• EP001: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2011 to 2016 by Sex, Province County or City, CensusYear and Statistic (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)
give the population as 4,757,976. That is a difference of 84,276.
Some differences will be accounted for because the two sets of data are not date-aligned. The census counts population in April. The estimates may be at the end of the year, though this is not stated.
The CSO calculate estimates by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding migration and subtracting emigration.
So, the 2011 census provides a baseline.
Code:
2012 estimate = 2011 population + births in 2011 – deaths in 2011 + immigration in 2011 - emigration in 2011
2013 estimate = 2012 population estimate + births in 2012 – deaths in 2012 + immigration in 2012 - emigration in 2012
…
2016 estimate = 2015 population estimate + births in 2015 – deaths in 2015 + immigration in 2015 - emigration in 2015
The numbers of births and deaths in a year are accurate. Any errors will be very small. There are very few unregistered births and deaths in Ireland.
Using this approach, the CSO underestimated their count of the population by 84,276. This error is therefore due to an error in calculation of immigration or emigration or both. The difference is left unfixed and unexplained, so far.
CSO Immigration and Emigration Numbers The CSO maintain a number of data series on immigration and emigration, such as:
• PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)
• PEA16: Estimated Emigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire ... =0&PXSId=0)
The information in these is collected by surveys rather than the big count associated with the census.
If you consolidate these two, you get the following net view for the years 2006-2016:
Code:
Year Emigration Immigration Net
Irish UK EU Other Irish UK EU Other Irish UK EU Other
2006 15,300 2,200 12,300 6,200 18,900 9,900 62,600 16,400 3,600 7,700 50,300 10,200
2007 12,900 3,700 21,500 8,200 30,700 4,300 97,100 19,000 17,800 600 75,600 10,800
2008 13,100 3,700 23,200 9,000 23,800 6,800 64,300 18,600 10,700 3,100 41,100 9,600
2009 19,200 3,900 37,900 11,000 23,000 3,900 32,600 14,100 3,800 0 -5,300 3,100
2010 28,900 3,000 28,000 9,300 17,900 2,500 15,500 6,000 -11,000 -500 -12,500 -3,300
2011 42,000 4,600 24,100 9,900 19,600 4,100 17,200 12,400 -22,400 -500 -6,900 2,500
2012 46,500 3,500 26,000 11,100 20,600 2,200 17,600 12,400 -25,900 -1,300 -8,400 1,300
2013 50,900 3,900 23,900 10,300 15,700 4,900 18,300 17,100 -35,200 1,000 -5,600 6,800
2014 40,700 2,700 24,100 14,400 11,600 4,900 18,700 25,500 -29,100 2,200 -5,400 11,100
2015 35,300 3,800 24,100 17,700 12,100 5,000 21,700 30,400 -23,200 1,200 -2,400 12,700
2016 31,800 2,600 23,200 18,500 21,100 4,500 22,000 31,800 -10,700 1,900 -1,200 13,300
Total 336,600 37,600 268,300 125,600 215,000 53,000 387,600 203,700 -121,600 15,400 119,300 78,100
In summary the totals for the years 2006-2016 are:
Code:
Emigration 768,100
Immigration 859,300
Net 91,200
The net figure for immigration over the years 2006-2016 seems far too low.
Now, when you look at the data series PEA21 which contains the CSO’s estimate of population based nationality: Irish, UK, EU and Other - PEA21 Estimated Population by Sex, Nationality and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0), you get:
Code:
Year Irish UK EU Other Total
2006 3,802,400 115,500 176,300 138,800 4,233,000
2007 3,856,200 115,500 254,600 149,600 4,375,900
2008 3,909,500 117,900 298,500 159,200 4,485,100
2009 3,958,000 117,100 296,100 162,200 4,533,400
2010 3,994,700 115,900 285,400 158,700 4,554,700
2011 4,017,900 114,900 280,900 161,200 4,574,900
2012 4,035,000 113,000 274,900 162,500 4,585,400
2013 4,038,600 113,400 271,800 169,300 4,593,100
2014 4,045,300 114,900 268,800 180,500 4,609,500
2015 4,057,400 115,500 269,100 193,400 4,635,400
2016 4,079,800 116,700 270,300 206,900 4,673,700
Increase 277,400 1,200 94,000 68,100 440,700
The UK net increase number of 1,200 over this interval seem very low.
Note that this series still contains the inaccurate 2016 population number of 4,673,700.
When you summarise and consolidate PEA16 (emigration), PEA17 (immigration) and PEA21 (population) you get:
Code:
Years 2006-2016 Irish UK EU Other Total
Increase 277,400 1,200 94,000 68,100 440,700
Net Immigration -121,600 15,400 119,300 78,100 91,200
Then when you add details on births and deaths from VSQ01: Births and Deaths Registered by Sex, Quarter and Statistic (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) you get:
Code:
Year Population Net Immigration Net Births Over Deaths
2006 4,233,000 71,800 36,758
2007 4,375,900 104,800 42,570
2008 4,485,100 64,500 47,532
2009 4,533,400 1,600 46,030
2010 4,554,700 -27,300 47,411
2011 4,574,900 -27,300 45,655
2012 4,585,400 -34,300 43,377
2013 4,593,100 -33,000 38,912
2014 4,609,500 -21,200 38,367
2015 4,635,400 -11,700 35,957
2016 4,673,700 3,300 34,617
Total 440,700 91,200 457,186
An apparent net population increase of 440,700 but an increase of 548,386 based on adding the net immigration and net births over deaths numbers. Note that I interpolated the numbers of births and deaths for the two quarters 2016Q3 and 2016Q4 because they are not available in the VSQ01 series
The net difference between these two numbers is 107,686 which is greater than the difference between the 2016 population estimate and 2016 census number of 84,276.
So there are multiple inconsistencies across CSO demographic data: census, immigration and emigration, births and deaths.
This evinces poor data governance by and a lack of attention to data quality and an absence of master data management in the CSO. There does not appear to be any consistency or internal cross-checking, let alone cross-checking with external data sources.
It gives the appearance of multiple disconnected business units each focused on particular data sets not consulting one another and with no one taking overall responsibility or ownership.
Notes On Demographics These are some background notes on demographics that might be useful.
In a closed population, that is, one where there is no immigration and emigration, the number of people at age N in year Y will be less than or equal to the number at age N-1 in year Y-1. The difference will be due solely to deaths. The exception is those aged 0 in year Y which represents births during that year. Put simply, people are only born at age 0 and the number in subsequent years at ages 1 onwards never increases. It always drops for a closed population.
So for a real population, where the number of people at age N in year Y is not less than or equal to the number at age N-1 in year Y-1 that would be expected because of deaths, some external change (net migration) has occurred.
Irish mortality information is available in the Irish Life Tables Number 16 2010-2012
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... 2010-2012/ The CSO has (erroneous) population estimates in the series PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0).
This shows the population details for 2015 and 2016 for males and females:
Code:
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
Year 2015 2016 Difference Expected Deaths Non-Death Difference
Under 1 Year 35,106 32,972 33,867 32,347 133 108
1 Year 35,692 33,731 35,490 33,431 384 459 12 23 517 567
2 Years 37,175 35,436 36,004 34,196 312 465 4 3 324 488
3 Years 38,920 37,416 37,428 35,891 253 455 3 2 257 458
4 Years 37,584 36,839 39,106 37,826 186 410 3 2 189 412
5 Years 37,615 36,497 37,724 37,191 140 352 4 3 143 354
6 Years 37,348 36,242 37,716 36,763 101 266 4 3 105 269
7 Years 36,426 35,667 37,412 36,422 64 180 4 2 68 183
8 Years 34,455 33,100 36,467 35,792 41 125 3 2 45 127
9 Years 33,146 31,860 34,495 33,211 40 111 3 2 43 113
10 Years 33,441 31,464 33,199 31,968 53 108 3 2 56 110
11 Years 32,693 31,629 33,497 31,560 56 96 2 2 59 98
12 Years 32,390 31,222 32,738 31,690 45 61 3 2 47 63
13 Years 31,671 30,604 32,392 31,242 2 20 3 3 5 22
14 Years 31,258 29,707 31,621 30,595 -50 -9 5 3 -47 -6
15 Years 30,851 29,472 31,171 29,699 -87 -8 7 4 -82 -5
16 Years 31,125 29,510 30,773 29,516 -78 44 10 5 -71 48
17 Years 30,150 28,503 30,882 29,583 -243 73 13 6 -233 78
18 Years 28,513 26,602 28,344 26,436 -1806 -2067 16 6 -1793 -2061
19 Years 25,413 23,061 26,839 24,904 -1674 -1698 17 6 -1658 -1692
20 Years 23,809 22,040 24,248 22,020 -1165 -1041 19 5 -1148 -1035
21 Years 22,774 21,196 23,140 21,409 -669 -631 20 5 -650 -626
22 Years 23,437 22,161 22,501 20,891 -273 -305 22 5 -253 -300
23 Years 23,720 23,628 23,410 21,931 -27 -230 23 5 -5 -225
24 Years 25,724 25,012 23,897 23,385 177 -243 25 6 200 -238
25 Years 25,709 25,752 26,495 25,460 771 448 24 7 796 454
26 Years 26,526 27,787 26,599 26,290 890 538 23 8 914 545
27 Years 27,955 30,253 27,355 28,244 829 457 22 7 852 465
28 Years 29,752 32,225 28,581 30,665 626 412 23 8 648 419
29 Years 30,639 33,821 30,251 32,505 499 280 24 9 522 288
30 Years 31,663 34,561 31,063 34,115 424 294 26 10 448 303
31 Years 32,442 36,569 31,942 34,856 279 295 28 12 305 305
32 Years 34,513 38,997 32,640 36,714 198 145 31 14 226 157
33 Years 35,979 39,846 34,725 39,110 212 113 34 16 243 127
34 Years 38,225 41,057 36,158 39,841 179 -5 38 18 213 11
35 Years 38,292 40,229 38,352 41,015 127 -42 40 20 165 -24
This is just as example as we know that these CSO population estimates are wrong. The individual year-on-year error is around 17,000 (or possibly much higher).
For example, there were 35,692 males aged 1 in 2015. In 2016 the number of males aged 2 was 36,004. We would have expected 12 deaths in this age group. So, without any migration, the number of males in 2016 aged 2 should have been 35,680. But it was greater than this by 312. This indicates an external increase of around 324.
The Non-Death Difference column in the table above is the difference between the expected number at age N+1 in 2015 based on those at age N in 2015 and the expected deaths.
Any number that is significantly different from zero indicates net immigration or net immigration. It is not possible to determine the individual immigration and immigration of the net difference.
The ages where there in net emigration are 18-22. These may be Irish people going abroad the study or older children of Irish residents returning to their parents’ home country for activities such as study. This is not a property-buying cohort. It is only a small property-demanding cohort since many of them will be living with their parents. Their leaving will not free-up much property.
The components of change in Irish population are:
These are:
A – Births
B – Deaths
C – Immigration from Northern Ireland
D – Emigration to Northern Ireland, either native Irish, previous Northern Irish immigrants or other immigrants
E – Immigration from Great Britain
F – Emigration to Great Britain, either native Irish, previous British immigrants or other immigrants
G – Immigration from the EU
H – Emigration to the EU, either native Irish, previous EU immigrants or other immigrants
I – Immigration from the Rest of the World
J – Emigration to the Rest of the World, either native Irish, previous Rest of the World immigrants or other immigrants
The key to correct population information is knowing these components. Clearly the knowledge that exists about this is doubtful.
Migration Numbers and Numbers of PPSNs Issued The very large discrepancy between the immigration numbers and the number of PPSNs issued indicate a one or more of a number of problems:
• Undercounted immigration/undercounted population
• Errors by the Department of Social Protection
• PPSN abuse such as the EU Treaty Rights abuse that recently reported – see
http://www.independent.ie/business/brex ... 76592.html • Large volumes of short-term and repeated immigration with no PPSN reuse
In the time series PEA21: Estimated Population by Sex, Nationality and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) which still has the inaccurate 2016 population number of 4,673,700, they estimate that 593,900 are migrants living in Ireland.
Of the extra 84,276 between the 2016 population estimate and actual, almost all will have been migrants. There are very few unrecorded births and deaths. So that is an estimate of 678,176 migrants living in Ireland. That is 14% of the population, according to the CSO.
Migration estimates are contained in PEA03 Estimated Migration by Age Group, Sex, Inward or Outward Flow and Year(
http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal ... ssued.aspx). From 2001 to 2016, the CSO estimate that immigration in this interval was 1,188,000. Emigration is estimated as 905,400 giving net migration of 282,100.
This shows the CSO’s estimate of the proportion of immigrants in various age groups:
Not unsurprisingly, most (counted) immigrants are aged 15 – 44.
If you look at the series FNA02: Employment Activity of Foreign Nationals by Broad Nationality Group, Year of Entry and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire ... =0&PXSId=0) which contains details on the PPS numbers issued from 2002 to 2014, the numbers are:
Code:
2002 79,859
2003 72,312
2004 116,207
2005 169,886
2006 202,395
2007 187,761
2008 127,048
2009 62,984
2010 59,310
2011 58,258
2012 64,193
2013 75,812
2014 85,724
Total 1,361,749
So, according to the CSO, immigration from 2001 to 2016 of 1,188,000 but 1,361,749 PPSNs issued in the shorter interval of 2002 to 2014.
Now, there is abuse of PPSNs with one person have more than one PPSN and there are people with PPSNs who are welfare tourists. But you need a PPSN to get pretty much any service:
• Any Social Welfare services
• Any Revenue Schemes including Taxation
• Pupil ID
• HSE services including Medical Card and Drug Payment Schemes
• Child Immunisation
• Housing Grants
• Driver Licenses
So, there are substantial incentives to get a PPSN.
Also, unless you are operating entirely in the black economy you or your employer will look for a valid PPSN.
The Department of Social Protection (DSP) also publish PPSN statistics, less than helpfully in PDF files, one for each year at
http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal ... ssued.aspxWhen you consolidate the DSP PPSN details with the CSO PPSN and migration data you get:
Code:
Year All PPSN Ireland PPSN Foreign PPSN DSP Foreign PPSN CSO Difference Immigration
2016 135,525 56,402 79,123 76,200
2015 169,711 75,008 94,703 80,900
2014 172,463 76,091 96,372 85,724 10,648 81,900
2013 164,182 78,630 85,552 75,812 9,740 89,000
2012 154,657 81,331 73,326 64,193 9,133 87,100
2011 153,050 85,210 67,840 58,258 9,582 80,600
2010 154,168 85,130 69,038 59,310 9,728 69,200
2009 165,895 85,909 79,986 62,984 17,002 72,000
2008 247,431 91,280 156,151 127,048 29,103 49,200
2007 305,610 87,559 218,051 187,761 30,290 46,300
2006 311,850 80,788 231,062 202,395 28,667 36,000
2005 271,202 80,293 190,909 169,886 21,023 29,400
2004 219,954 86,691 133,263 116,207 17,056 26,500
2003 191,565 86,947 104,618 72,312 32,306 29,300
2002 215,536 49,866 165,670 79,859 85,811 25,600
2001 221,956 109,577 112,379 26,200
Total 3,254,755 1,296,712 1,958,043 310,089 905,400
So:
• DSP issued 1,958,043 foreign PPSNs from 2001 to Sept 2016.
• CSO estimate immigration (gross and not net) of 905,400 in the same interval
• Even in the interval 2002 to 2014 for which the CSP published foreign PPSN details, there is a difference of 310,089 between the CSO and DSP numbers
That means that the Department of Social Protection issued more than twice the number of PPSNs to non-nationals than the CSO estimate immigrated into Ireland.
It points to possibly much larger numbers of non-national migrants than officially stated in the interval 2001 to 2016.
This is a further view of consolidated information for the years 2006-2016 which matches the interval for the demographic data in the previous section:
Code:
Year All PPSN Ireland PPSN Foreign PPSN DSP Emigration Non Irish Immigration Births
2006 311,850 80,788 231,062 36,000 88,900 64,237
2007 305,610 87,559 218,051 46,300 120,400 70,620
2008 247,431 91,280 156,151 49,000 89,700 75,724
2009 165,895 85,909 79,986 72,000 50,600 74,928
2010 154,168 85,130 69,038 69,200 24,000 74,976
2011 153,050 85,210 67,840 80,600 33,700 74,650
2012 154,657 81,331 73,326 87,100 32,200 72,225
2013 164,182 78,630 85,552 89,000 40,300 68,930
2014 172,463 76,091 96,372 81,900 49,100 67,462
2015 169,711 75,008 94,703 80,900 57,100 65,909
2016 135,525 56,402 79,123 76,100 58,300 64,823
Total 2,134,542 883,338 1,251,204 768,100 644,300 774,484
There were 883,338 PPSNs issued to Irish people and 774,484 births. All new births are assigned PPSNs. The difference can easily be accounted for by factors such as older Irish people, who would not have PPSNs, immigrating,
The CSO estimate non-Irish immigration of 644,300 in this interval. The Department of Social Protection issued 1,251,204 PPSNs to non-Irish people in the same interval. That is a very substantial and unexplained difference of 606,904. This difference is just too large to be left unexplained and unquestioned.
EU nationals living in Ireland with children living elsewhere in the EU are entitled to Children’s Allowance. But, as far as I believe, these children do not get assigned a PPSN. Maybe someone who knows more can provide more information on this. The number of such children being paid Children’s Allowance is low and much lower than 606,904.
That is a potentially a lot of extra people looking for accommodation, rental or otherwise, driving demand and cost.
It is also a lot of inconsistency and lack of certainty.
Widening The Data Net The data net can be widened to attempt to answer the question and to cross-check the reliability of the CSO’s population data.
Population-related information can be obtained from other sources such as the Revenue Commissioners – details on the numbers of income tax payers – and the Department of Education from which details on number of students in education are available.
This shows the population estimates from the CSO series PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0). I have extracted the population estimates for ages 18 to 66. The data series contains the erroneous population estimate. The 2014 Adj column contains the 2014 adjusted to take account of the difference between the 2016 population estimate and 2014 census number of 84,276.
Code:
2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 Adj 2015 2016 2016 Adj
18 Years 56,290 52,397 51,990 51,884 52,785 55,115 54,781 56,366
19 Years 56,953 52,745 48,733 48,508 49,350 48,474 51,742 53,239
20 Years 59,462 53,592 49,453 45,942 46,740 45,849 46,268 47,607
21 Years 57,951 56,257 50,509 47,063 47,880 43,970 44,549 45,838
22 Years 57,957 54,958 53,228 48,512 49,354 45,598 43,391 44,646
23 Years 60,287 55,110 52,315 51,555 52,450 47,348 45,341 46,653
24 Years 62,914 57,828 53,261 51,190 52,079 50,736 47,282 48,650
25 Years 65,838 61,741 57,120 53,783 54,717 51,461 51,954 53,457
26 Years 68,617 65,145 61,437 57,870 58,875 54,313 52,889 54,419
27 Years 72,127 67,768 64,652 62,020 63,097 58,208 55,599 57,208
28 Years 76,965 70,937 66,914 64,775 65,900 61,977 59,246 60,960
29 Years 79,330 75,604 69,843 66,577 67,733 64,460 62,756 64,572
30 Years 82,618 78,011 74,465 69,373 70,578 66,224 65,177 67,063
31 Years 81,744 81,334 76,844 73,923 75,207 69,011 66,798 68,731
32 Years 78,585 80,468 80,172 76,204 77,527 73,510 69,354 71,360
33 Years 75,824 77,509 79,436 79,656 81,039 75,825 73,835 75,971
34 Years 74,596 74,955 76,549 78,907 80,277 79,282 75,998 78,197
35 Years 74,026 73,873 74,124 76,063 77,384 78,521 79,367 81,663
36 Years 73,757 73,351 73,167 73,549 74,826 75,627 78,444 80,713
37 Years 72,332 73,226 72,709 72,658 73,920 73,170 75,554 77,740
38 Years 72,374 71,855 72,574 72,179 73,432 72,313 73,082 75,196
39 Years 70,600 72,024 71,244 72,128 73,380 71,906 72,254 74,344
40 Years 70,073 70,303 71,541 70,831 72,061 71,914 71,847 73,926
41 Years 68,196 69,770 69,909 71,131 72,366 70,643 71,814 73,892
42 Years 64,449 67,891 69,499 69,536 70,743 70,969 70,595 72,637
43 Years 63,813 64,126 67,740 69,125 70,325 69,336 70,903 72,954
44 Years 62,803 63,569 64,102 67,439 68,610 68,964 69,321 71,327
45 Years 62,449 62,691 63,624 64,009 65,120 67,375 69,059 71,057
46 Years 62,929 62,342 62,720 63,579 64,683 63,964 67,430 69,381
47 Years 61,159 62,773 62,310 62,647 63,735 63,511 63,974 65,825
48 Years 59,593 60,952 62,642 62,181 63,261 62,553 63,436 65,271
49 Years 57,980 59,380 60,827 62,483 63,568 62,047 62,421 64,227
50 Years 58,356 57,750 59,227 60,616 61,668 62,299 61,877 63,667
51 Years 56,005 58,091 57,502 58,987 60,011 60,398 62,129 63,926
52 Years 53,899 55,746 57,756 57,272 58,266 58,738 60,212 61,954
53 Years 53,311 53,629 55,357 57,568 58,568 57,019 58,572 60,267
54 Years 52,166 53,000 53,239 55,163 56,121 57,320 56,818 58,462
55 Years 50,538 51,855 52,632 53,008 53,928 54,910 57,073 58,724
56 Years 50,244 50,188 51,508 52,347 53,256 52,784 54,683 56,265
57 Years 48,223 49,935 49,890 51,179 52,068 52,075 52,547 54,067
58 Years 48,427 47,883 49,598 49,503 50,363 50,889 51,802 53,301
59 Years 45,948 48,111 47,520 49,234 50,089 49,200 50,587 52,051
60 Years 45,096 45,615 47,725 47,148 47,967 48,928 48,899 50,314
61 Years 44,384 44,734 45,266 47,374 48,197 46,760 48,601 50,007
62 Years 43,719 43,977 44,369 44,896 45,676 46,964 46,421 47,764
63 Years 42,832 43,279 43,494 43,949 44,712 44,492 46,583 47,931
64 Years 41,073 42,359 42,787 43,050 43,797 43,512 44,124 45,401
65 Years 39,558 40,629 41,877 42,330 43,065 42,712 43,197 44,447
66 Years 36,249 39,144 40,167 41,401 42,120 41,976 42,391 43,617
Total 2,976,630 2,952,422 2,927,580 2,914,319 2,962,871 2,907,165 2,914,993 2,997,255
I have selected 2014 because it is the latest year for which the Revenue Commissioners published income tax statistics.
I have selected population numbers aged from 18 to 66 because this group will either be counted as:
1. In employment and registered with the Revenue Commissioners
2. Unemployed and in receipt of some form of allowance or benefit and counted by the Department of Social Protection
3. In third-level education and counted by the Department of Education
4. In second-level education and counted by the Department of Education
5. Not counted in categories 1 to 5
6. Counted in two or more of these categories
and so can be cross-checked with data from the Revenue Commissioners, Department of Education and Department of Social Protection.
There will be errors and double-counting in this data:
• Category 1 will include some people younger than 18 and older than 66.
• Category 2 will also double-count those who are illegally claiming two (or more) forms of unemployment allowance or benefit.
• Category 3 will include students under 18 that are in third-level education
• Category 4 will be small and as the Department of Education do not provide ages of second-level students this number cannot be assessed. I have not attempted to estimate the numbers of second-level students that are 18 (or older).
• Category 5 consists of are people operating entirely in the black market with no engagement with either the Revenue Commissioners or the Department of Social Protection.
• The number in category 6 will include values such as students who are working and those who are working and illegally claiming some form of unemployment allowance or benefit.
The equality between CSO population data and that from the other data sources looks like:
Subject to the errors listed above, the two numbers should be roughly equal.
The intention here is not to produce population estimates that are completely accurate. It is, rather, an attempt to assess the accuracy of the CSO population data using consistency cross-checks from other data sources.
The Revenue Commissioners publish details on income tax payers. The latest year for which this this is available is 2014 – see
http://www.revenue.ie/en/about/statisti ... x-2014.xls referenced on the page
http://www.revenue.ie/en/about/statisti ... e-tax.html.
Code:
Classification Cases People
Single Males 657,628
Single Females 614,482
Married Couples - Both Earning 477,603 955,206
Married Couples - One Earning 386,230 772,460
Widowers 24,639
Widows 63,466
Total 2,224,048 3,087,881
According to the Revenue Commissioners, the income earners who are categorised as “Married Couples - Both Earning” or “Married Couples - One Earning” are those who have chosen or have been deemed to have chosen for joint assessment as one tax unit. So each of the 477,603 cases classified as “Married Couples - Both Earning” represents two people.
As the Revenue Commissioners data is from 2014, I will use other data from 2014 as well to provide a uniform view.
Education statistics are available from
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/pssn/de ... atbank.asp Series EDA03 Students from Ireland and Northern Ireland Enrolled in Third Level Institutions by County of Origin, Year and Type of Institution (
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) contains the following:
Code:
County Number
Carlow 2,018
Dublin 37,954
Kildare 6,770
Kilkenny 3,325
Laois 2,253
Longford 1,344
Louth 4,037
Meath 5,958
Offaly 2,408
Westmeath 3,079
Wexford 4,612
Wicklow 4,486
Clare 4,592
Cork 18,803
Kerry 5,668
Limerick 7,288
Tipperary 5,684
Waterford 4,562
Galway 10,105
Leitrim 1,145
Mayo 5,058
Roscommon 2,373
Sligo 2,611
Cavan 2,252
Donegal 4,951
Monaghan 2,067
Total 155,403
In 2014 there were 155,403 students in Ireland in third-level accommodation. I have assumed that these students are over 18. There will be some third-level students that are under 18. There will also be some second-level students that are 18 and so are not included here.
The Department of Social Protection’s live register statistics are available from
https://www.welfare.ie/en/downloads/Sta ... ister.xlsx.
Worksheet “Ave LR Hist DONE” contains the Live Register details
Code:
Year 2014
Jobseeker's Allowance 294,375
Jobseeker's Benefit 53,841
Credited Contributions 35,563
Average Live Register 383,779
So, merging these four sets of data, you get:
Code:
Revenue Commissioners Income Tax Payers 2014 3,087,881
Third Level Education Full Time 2014 155,403
Live Register Average Over 2014 383,779
Total For 2014 3,627,063
Adjusted 2014 Population 2,962,871
Difference 664,192
The difference in 2014 from population estimates for those aged 18-66 from the CSO and other sources of 664,192 will include the errors listed above.
It is still a large difference.
The arithmetic should be along the lines of:
So, How Many People Actually Live In Ireland? I have no idea. But I strongly believe that it is higher than the number the CSO counted in the 2016 census. For someone with an affinity to numbers, this is both contra-intuitive and disquieting. It could be several hundred thousand more. I do not believe it is 600,000 more or anything like that number.
It is a bit of a mess.
I am sure that I have made errors in this analysis. It was done briefly. Please highlight them.
This analysis has two purposes:
1. A primary one of identifying issues with Irish population statistics and to show that there are real problems
2. A secondary one of attempting to quantify the actual population
I feel that I have achieved both objectives, albeit the secondary one with some major warnings.
There are still unanswered questions, such as:
• How and why could or would people evade being counted in the census?
• What benefit is there of such concealment?
• How could the CSO’s census big count contain such errors and what is the extent of the errors, if any?
• Why is there such a large difference between numbers of PPSNs issued by the Department of Social Protection and immigration as counted by the CSO?
These are valid questions to which I do not have answers. I would welcome comments.
This analysis demonstrates a lack of knowledge and control by Irish governments on population and immigration who do not know what is happening and by those agencies tasked with doing this work.
What Are the likely Impacts And Consequences? There are several sets of possible impacts and consequences relating to resource requirements in areas such as accommodation, transport, health care, legal and justice as well as wider social, societal, political, cultural and economic ones.
In the specific context of property which is the nominal concern of this board, this indicates that demand is being underestimated and supply is even worse than believed. It is possible that a large number of immigrants may leave and so reduce demand for property due, for example, to a combined Brexit/Trump recession and loss of employment. However, unquantified past immigration likely means unquantified future immigration. So the trend for property demand and prices is up.
Knowledge is power and we are powerless.
It may be unfashionable to be seen to question the number of migrants in Ireland. Accusations of xenophobia are all too easily levelled and are just attempts to deflect a valid concern. Like it or not, there are large and popular anti-migrant political parties and social movements throughout Europe and elsewhere that have risen organically because concerns are left unaddressed by established political parties. Wishful thinking is no substitute for analysis. Ignoring a problem will not make it go away. They have already caused seismic changes. Ireland would appear to offer a potential fertile ground for such a party or movement.
Elsewhere I have expressed by view that too much change imposed on a society too quickly causes problems and gives rise to dissent.
