Coveney is the safe boring choice, he will continue to operate FG as Kenny did, and won't make any real changes. FG would suffer badly at the next election if he stays.
Varadkar is the interesting choice. He does have the ability to speak without resorting to soundbites, and he does appear to have a vision for the country. He oversaw the department of Health without any major scandals or incidents, so he does strike me as the kind of guy that will appeal to the wider electorate who want something different to the usual politicians we have in the country. He speaks his mind and isn't afraid to call it as he sees it which is refreshing.
What vision does Leo have?
What did he do in Health? He's supposed to be so intelligent, not afraid to speak out, young and brash...and of course he's a doctor. But he did nothing in Health, just blamed it all on his predecessors and jumped out the first chance he got to the Dept of Social Welfare! Where was the vision there.
The last Health minister who did something of note (whether you agree with it or not) was Harney and the cancer strategy. And she kept going back to the job after elections/cabinet reshuffles.
What did he do in Transport? I heard him on the radio last week claiming personal credit for an increase in the numbers using trains/buses but that had nothing to do with him and actually reflected the uptake in the economy. He had Alan Kelly as his Junior Minister and allowed him set up phantom bus and train services out of his home constituency to win a few local votes....that's some leadership!
I think FG are going to lose more seats in the next GE no matter who's in charge. Thats what happens to Govt parties.
It's a bit like taking over at Man Utd after a long standing manager steps down. The next few managers do nothing but fail and fail miserably in quick time. Eventually the club reinvigorates itself and a later manager makes it. Pascal could have played his cards perfectly here