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Given only two choices I say
Poll ended at Fri Apr 07, 2017 5:46 pm
I want Simon Coveney ! 21%  21%  [ 17 ]
I want Leo Varadkar ! 79%  79%  [ 64 ]
Total votes : 81
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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:57 am 
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obese_cat wrote:
Coveney is the safe boring choice, he will continue to operate FG as Kenny did, and won't make any real changes. FG would suffer badly at the next election if he stays.

Varadkar is the interesting choice. He does have the ability to speak without resorting to soundbites, and he does appear to have a vision for the country. He oversaw the department of Health without any major scandals or incidents, so he does strike me as the kind of guy that will appeal to the wider electorate who want something different to the usual politicians we have in the country. He speaks his mind and isn't afraid to call it as he sees it which is refreshing.

What vision does Leo have?
What did he do in Health? He's supposed to be so intelligent, not afraid to speak out, young and brash...and of course he's a doctor. But he did nothing in Health, just blamed it all on his predecessors and jumped out the first chance he got to the Dept of Social Welfare! Where was the vision there.
The last Health minister who did something of note (whether you agree with it or not) was Harney and the cancer strategy. And she kept going back to the job after elections/cabinet reshuffles.

What did he do in Transport? I heard him on the radio last week claiming personal credit for an increase in the numbers using trains/buses but that had nothing to do with him and actually reflected the uptake in the economy. He had Alan Kelly as his Junior Minister and allowed him set up phantom bus and train services out of his home constituency to win a few local votes....that's some leadership!

I think FG are going to lose more seats in the next GE no matter who's in charge. Thats what happens to Govt parties.
It's a bit like taking over at Man Utd after a long standing manager steps down. The next few managers do nothing but fail and fail miserably in quick time. Eventually the club reinvigorates itself and a later manager makes it. Pascal could have played his cards perfectly here


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:02 am 
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obese_cat wrote:
Coles2 wrote:
Let's not forget Paschal Donohoe. I like the cut of his jib.

An idle thought... who was the last Taoiseach who didn't leave office in disgrace?


John Bruton?
Ok. At his time of leaving office he was possibly the least disgraced of a bad lot.

But... One of the worst and lasting scandals in the history of the State occurred on his watch - the Michael Lowry/Denis O'Brien mobile licence affair. Bruton appointed Lowry to that role.

Also his false denial of his knowledge of Tom Hand, Frank Dunlop and the £250k donation demand. He subsequently remembered it a decade later at the Moriarty Tribunal.

Also his big cheesy grin when he met Prince Charles. "The happiest day of my life"


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:04 pm 
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owenm wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
theschmuck wrote:
There's no way Middle-Ireland will accept a single gay man with an "active" social life as Taoiseach, despite the media's narrative of this suddenly becoming a magic rainbow land. If he had a long-term partner/spouse that people got used to first I could see it happening in 5 or 10 years-a majority of the public would even take them to heart.


Why the quotes around "active"? Is he entitled to a sex-life? I think you're far behind the curve with regard to attitudes in Ireland.


attitudes in Ireland and attitudes in Ireland of those that vote are not the same thing. Personally I think he is smug but the right wing leanings are a good thing IMO.

We know that's not really true though -- see the gay marriage referendum for example.

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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:39 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
Why the quotes around "active"? Is he entitled to a sex-life? I think you're far behind the curve with regard to attitudes in Ireland.


attitudes in Ireland and attitudes in Ireland of those that vote are not the same thing. Personally I think he is smug but the right wing leanings are a good thing IMO.[/quote]
We know that's not really true though -- see the gay marriage referendum for example.[/quote]

The Marriage equality referendum passed by a large margin, and not just in Dublin.

He'll be fine.

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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:41 pm 
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That was my point.

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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:45 pm 
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obese_cat wrote:
The Marriage equality referendum passed by a large margin, and not just in Dublin.

He'll be fine.


I think one potential complicating factor there is that, while the marriage referendum was generally very popular, it was less popular with FG voters. In polling, FF voters were the only voter group who fairly consistently were actually opposed, by a small margin, but FG voters were in favour by a smaller margin than voters in other parties.

That said, I have some difficulty imagining many people going "oh, well, I was going to vote FG, but the leader is gay, so no". I'm sure a few would, but I doubt it'd be substantial. Personal popularity of the leader doesn't seem to be a great predictive factor in Irish politics in general.


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Worstpigeon wrote:
obese_cat wrote:
The Marriage equality referendum passed by a large margin, and not just in Dublin.

He'll be fine.


I think one potential complicating factor there is that, while the marriage referendum was generally very popular, it was less popular with FG voters. In polling, FF voters were the only voter group who fairly consistently were actually opposed, by a small margin, but FG voters were in favour by a smaller margin than voters in other parties.

Very true. I looked into this at the time and about 15% of FG TDs wouldn't support the vote compared to about 40% of FF TDs. As far as I remember every single SF, Labour, AAA and PBP TDs supported it.

I would be very surprised if the FG figure was correct and I suspect they felt cowed into supporting it despite themselves.
If the tables were turned and they were in opposition I suspect only half of them would have supported it.
Quote:
That said, I have some difficulty imagining many people going "oh, well, I was going to vote FG, but the leader is gay, so no". I'm sure a few would, but I doubt it'd be substantial. Personal popularity of the leader doesn't seem to be a great predictive factor in Irish politics in general.
I'm inclined to agree, but the wall between FF and FG has been torn down. FF is now well positioned to take the conservative votes from FG.


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Coles2 wrote:
I'm inclined to agree, but the wall between FF and FG has been torn down. FF is now well positioned to take the conservative votes from FG.


Has it for older voters, though? The opposition to the marriage referendum was disproportionately amongst the over 65s (over 65s were the only age group where a majority opposed it), but I would have thought that they were also more inclined to party loyalty.


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:41 pm 
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Worstpigeon wrote:
Coles2 wrote:
I'm inclined to agree, but the wall between FF and FG has been torn down. FF is now well positioned to take the conservative votes from FG.


Has it for older voters, though? The opposition to the marriage referendum was disproportionately amongst the over 65s (over 65s were the only age group where a majority opposed it), but I would have thought that they were also more inclined to party loyalty.
Sure. But it only takes a small enough shift to make a big difference when it comes to the last seat in a constituency. It mightn't be a factor, but conservative voters might also put their messed up sense of morality ahead of their party loyalty. Any thoughts ps?


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:47 pm 
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Coles2 wrote:
But it only takes a small enough shift to make a big difference when it comes to the last seat in a constituency. It mightn't be a factor, but conservative voters might also put their messed up sense of morality ahead of their party loyalty. Any thoughts ps?

I have no party loyalty. My messed up sense of morality comes first every time.

Coles2 wrote:
Let's not forget Paschal Donohoe. I like the cut of his jib.

Jawsus, what a waffler. I literally CRY with boredom every time the man opens his mouth. If he was talking about a hurtling space rock and an imminent global extinction event I'd be stifling a yawn.

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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:53 pm 
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The lesser of two feeble weasels surely.

The pair have watched from the wings for the last seven years as the dullard primary school teacher put his own self-interest ahead of the country and his own party by tolerating and supporting incompetence from the likes of Reilly, Shatter, Hogan, Fitzgerald and Noonan just because they supported him against Bruton. Kenny's appalling performance in the last general election was so astonishingly poor.

Noonan has been mesmerised by NAMA who he feels can do no wrong and did nothing on the tax evasion by funds by property in Ireland and their local advisors. Despite the manifest illegality of major NAMA sales like Project Eagle, Noonan did nothing. Noonan behaves like the old fat smug cat that finally got the cream. He needs to be brought to the big farm in the country.

Kenny should have been dumped four years or more ago. The fact that Varadkar and Coveney did not form a pact to run jointly against him and divide up the Taoiseach and Tanaiste/Minister for Finance roles between the pair shows their lack of vision and even desire to do the country and their party a service. It augurs very poorly for their decision-making abilities and their need for a degree of ruthlessness.

Even now, Kenny gets to hang on and do a few laps of the political velodrome in his MAMIL lycra rather than him, his party and the country being put out of their collective misery.

Varadkar and Coveney is a choice between wetter and wetterer.


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:04 pm 
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Leo could bring in Danny Healy-Rae for Tánaiste to court the rural vote.. opposites attract as Theresa May said.


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:04 pm 
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Part of me will miss Kenny. It's easy to focus on his failings. But look at what's coming next. Neither Coveney or Varadkar has done much right as ministers. And Kenny isn't as smug. Smugness counts !

When it comes down to it Kenny lost a lot of authority when he said he was going. Big mistake.
Noel Rock proposed him as Taoiseach...now he issues ultimatums !


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:04 am 
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I keep seeing the words, "smug" and "arrogant" mentioned in relation to Leo. In Irish terms, that usually translates as "confident", "assured" and "direct". Any of us who have lived outside the country for any amount of time will realize that, only in Ireland, are those traits not prized or even appreciated.

(I've met him a few times socially - once at a Bobby Womack gig in Dublin - on Arthur's Day a few years ago, and at the Electric Picnic. He was anything but "smug" or "arrogant" - quite the opposite actually.)


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 Post subject: Re: Poll - The Greater Man / The Lesser Evil - Leo or Covene
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:51 am 
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HiFi wrote:
I keep seeing the words, "smug" and "arrogant" mentioned in relation to Leo. In Irish terms, that usually translates as "confident", "assured" and "direct". Any of us who have lived outside the country for any amount of time will realize that, only in Ireland, are those traits not prized or even appreciated.

(I've met him a few times socially - once at a Bobby Womack gig in Dublin - on Arthur's Day a few years ago, and at the Electric Picnic. He was anything but "smug" or "arrogant" - quite the opposite actually.)

Holy avocado on toast batman, do we agree on something? It'd be nice, with either of them, to feel that we had someone who was in it for the doing of it, could have a career elsewhere, was not in the pocket of developers/financiers/farmers somewhere.

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