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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:41 pm 
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catbear wrote:
I remember 2010/11 being so cold the cat would fight its way under our quilt!

At least this time I'm not working outdoors! There were some mornings where it was -15 at 6am!


Where did the bear sleep? :nin


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:17 pm 
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The Naked Chef wrote:
catbear wrote:
I remember 2010/11 being so cold the cat would fight its way under our quilt!

At least this time I'm not working outdoors! There were some mornings where it was -15 at 6am!


Where did the bear sleep? :nin



The bear didn't have a machine gun. :P

And given your own state of undress how did you even survive 2010 ?


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:17 am 
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2010. The last time my footwear was the envy of the masses; I was one of the few people in the city who owned traction cleats.

I hope DCC invests in some salt. Recall in 2010, when, in the absence of salt, they spread clay all over the snow in the city centre?


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:34 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
Coles2 wrote:
SnowfallAnal.pdf


Risky click!

Absolutely nothing on the Met Eireann Twitter or website that I can find about severe weather. But yet all the papers have it as a press release. Clowns.


yr.no long range is not showing anything bad...

https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinste ... /long.html

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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:08 am 
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grumpy wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
Coles2 wrote:
SnowfallAnal.pdf


Risky click!

Absolutely nothing on the Met Eireann Twitter or website that I can find about severe weather. But yet all the papers have it as a press release. Clowns.


yr.no long range is not showing anything bad...

https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinste ... /long.html


They were slow to give certainty on Irma, IIRC. They don't cry wolf like Boards.ie speculators


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:09 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:12 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
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For those of you who don't follow the boards weather threads, temperatures on a 850hPa chart are of temperatures at approx 1 mile up and -10c or less butting into a warmer air mass usually indicates snow.

My own guess is we could see all day negative daytime surface temperatures and very hard frosts but nothing certain about actual snow, at least before next Wednesday. Do order home heating oil if you are running low, they're going to be busy.


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:54 pm 
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The main driver of snow from this event is likely to be an interplay between the relatively warm Irish sea and the cold easterly. When there is more than a 13 degree difference between the seawater temperature and the T850 temperatures we can get streamers of snow that get dumped along the eastern counties. The greater the difference the more intense the snow showers can be.

There are other factors that can impact it but with the Irish Sea at about 8C if we get T850 temps of -10C then it has the potential for a lot of snow. These conditions could last for 5 days or more but there isn't a warm spell showing up in the forecast yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:34 pm 
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Coles2 wrote:
The main driver of snow from this event is likely to be an interplay between the relatively warm Irish sea and the cold easterly. When there is more than a 13 degree difference between the seawater temperature and the T850 temperatures we can get streamers of snow that get dumped along the eastern counties. The greater the difference the more intense the snow showers can be.

There are other factors that can impact it but with the Irish Sea at about 8C if we get T850 temps of -10C then it has the potential for a lot of snow. These conditions could last for 5 days or more but there isn't a warm spell showing up in the forecast yet.

But I think the sea temperature affects evaporation rate.

In the January 2010 snow event the M2 buoy was recording 9.0C. Currently it's at 6.9C.

Also, the air mass is quite dry at the moment.

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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:04 pm 
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cmon its nothing. I've experienced -25 few times in my life. Its ok as long as you dont stay outside for hours or if you dress properly.

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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:47 pm 
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mightyz wrote:
cmon its nothing. I've experienced -25 few times in my life. Its ok as long as you dont stay outside for hours or if you dress properly.

I've no trouble with -25degC.... but I fear my "quality Irish built" 1980s piping system would not handle it well.
Since this is a property forum, I'd have concerns that a lot of shoddily, and even reasonably, built Irish homes would have a lot of problems if those temperatures were sustained for a 48hr period.

As an example, there was a work crew out re-concreting a pathway near where I live. Re-concreting in the pipe that not only should not be under the footpath, but certainly shouldnt be at a depth of 6 inches. Should be more like 18 inches down.
Not even a boom-time job, just good old skool Irish shite workmanship from the 80s.
"Just lay it anywhere lads - it's not like we're accountable!"


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:03 pm 
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FTBer wrote:
I've no trouble with -25degC.... but I fear my "quality Irish built" 1980s piping system would not handle it well.
Since this is a property forum, I'd have concerns that a lot of shoddily, and even reasonably, built Irish homes would have a lot of problems if those temperatures were sustained for a 48hr period.

Near me there was a terrace of new builds which had the toilet extractor go into the attic, when the thaw came in 2010/11 the whole terrace suffered interior leaking from the roof!

Ironically the 1960s house that I was renting was the only one in my row where the tank in the attic hadn't froze as the attic floor hadn't been insulated and the heat rose from below. However when the thaw did come the whole street lost supply as water pipes had been laid too shallowly.

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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:56 am 
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Things I've picked up from the boards.ie thread.

It's still going to be cold as per charts, the kind that will almost cetinaly bring serious disruptive snow. :nin

Stroms of '47 & '63 haven been name checked a lot. :o

Preparations/Checks:

  • Insulate your outside garden water tap
  • Irish water meters - potential weak point/potential to freeze - are they insulated?


Quote:
M.T. Craniums latest post

Those pressure values I was mentioning earlier were just for an update for anyone who had been following an earlier set of posts about where these synoptics were developing, the models did a pretty good job of pushing that Franz Josef high over from north of Alaska where it was a week ago. And it is the core of the eventual high that shows up over northern Scandinavia in a few more days' time. The dead low I was tracking was a potential feature within the vast cold air mass that could, if it stayed active, spawn meso-scale lows in the North Sea of more interest to us, but at the moment I think only a ghost of that will be left in the circulation by 27th, still it could be the eventual focus for something that develops east of Scotland and tracks towards Ulster. Looking now like it's mostly a case of a frontal zone well south of Ireland that could push moisture into the cold easterly flow and ramp up snowfall amounts.

I would say at this point, the models are advertising a better than 50-50 chance of red alert conditions on 27th to 2nd of March. Potential exists for crippling amounts of snow over large parts of the south, it will be more of an enhanced snowfall than localized streamers, those will be the heaviest core of the larger extent of snow, if these charts are halfway accurate. The 850 mb temps are indicating that once heavy snow cover develops across Britain, temperatures there could be -4 to -7 C in snowfall and -10 to -15 (in central England and Wales) in any clearing intervals overnight, so that depth of frigid air will be rushing across the Irish Sea, it will easily form massive streamers but as there is some synoptic scale snowfall potential in the background, these streamers will enhance that lighter snow, would expect totals to be quite staggering if all this comes off. I will post some actual numbers when I feel that the model consensus warrants it, but expect big ones.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpos ... count=2215


Technical thread now opened on the subject - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthr ... 2057844498

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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:19 am 
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Open Window wrote:
Image


Finally some evidence for a disruptive influence originating from Russia.


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 Post subject: Re: Severe COLD event - Feb 23rd onwards (10 days)
PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:30 am 
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Barmiest Loon wrote:
Finally some evidence for a disruptive influence originating from Russia.

Evidence that they crowned Varadkar as leader?


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