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 Post subject: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:20 pm 
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Just 500m to go, 3 years ahead of the original 2020 schedule

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/04 ... nior-debt/

No mention of

a) what "profit" it expects to make over the 30.2bn [AHEM ignoring the loans par value was 74bn!]

b) are they closing off NAMA so in 2018? Or building houses or what? Future is very unclear

https://www.nama.ie/about-us/news/news- ... f-EUR952m/


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:26 pm 
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Also ignores the €18 Billion in profit that they gifted to the vulture funds.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:17 am 
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Meh so some of you are finally realizing that high property prices (and policies to further this aim) are a way for the government to indirectly tax all of us...


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:44 am 
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Coles2 wrote:
Also ignores the €18 Billion in profit that they gifted to the vulture funds.

Can you provide a source for that figure?


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:31 pm 
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Also what is a "vulture fund"?

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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:55 pm 
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Quote:
€18 Billion in profit that they gifted to the vulture funds


I bought shares a few years ago on the LSE and they have gone up in value. Do i now owe Gift Tax on the profit and to whom should I write the thank you note?


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:37 pm 
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Also recall that many (including Morgan Kelly) thought that most of the NAMA bonds would never be repaid.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:39 pm 
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mortgageboy wrote:
Also recall that many (including Morgan Kelly) thought that most of the NAMA bonds would never be repaid.


Most assumed the bubble prices wouldn't come back so soon but hey, look at us now!


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:56 pm 
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This is actually quite an achievement. I know the SBP published Jim Power's "report" on NAMA but to recover this kind of money on loan assets in a short space of time is good going. People forget that the "assets" NAMA bought were not the properties themselves but loans (basically fixed income claims on those assets). The problem with a loan (or a fixed nominal claim) is that it can go down in value if the real property assets it is secured on falls in value but it does not necessarily go up in value to the same extent if the value of the real property asset goes up. It is NOT the same thing as actually owning the property.

Power conveniently glossed over this (at least in the SBP article) by trying to compare NAMA's performance with commercial property itself and with equity indices, which always have greater upside than a pool of loans. Neither NAMA nor the banks who made the loans ever had access to the full upside of the underlying real assets (because the loans to the really good assets will get repaid at face or bought back while the bad loans will go to zero). Sure they bought at 50pc discount to face value, but the shitty lending and shitty documentation impaired a huge amount of value in many cases.

NAMA was originally structured to hold the development loans of the Irish banking system at a time when it was still believed the State could avoid nationalizing the banks themselves and avoid the IMF. The idea was to isolate what was thought to be the worst part of the banking system and save the rest (and FF).

In the end the banks were rotten in a whole load of other ways and FF could not be saved from 2011. However, the crew we elected in their place chose to behave and sell a story about a certain kind of recovery which required amnesia, and hanging around to recover "long term economic value" (a concept many Pinsters were pretty sniffy about but whose correctness is actually proven by the vulture funds' success) was not part of that story. So FG moved the goalposts for NAMA and set objectives that were far more short term in nature. NAMA therefore had to sell earlier than originally envisioned to realise cash. While they might be criticised for selling good stuff early, its worth remembering that selling the UK stuff for example, in 2013 - 2015 avoided Brexit (a huge number of loans were in sterling or secured on sterling assets). And they had limited rights to the upside in any event.

The electorate only partly bought FG's story, leading to the comic opera government we currently have. But in fairness to the 200-400 folks in NAMA, they mostly obeyed the diktats of the elected masters and remarkably few appear to have been suborned so far. The developers who want to bitch now were all free to exit NAMA as soon as they repaid their loans. Any time they paid back in full, they were free to go and do as they pleased. Yes, having a lender run your strategy is suboptimal. Don't borrow so much next time. It's a lesson lots of business people learn, not just developers.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:42 pm 
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Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:58 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
Also recall that many (including Morgan Kelly) thought that most of the NAMA bonds would never be repaid.


Most assumed the bubble prices wouldn't come back so soon but hey, look at us now!


Why be surprised, half the country was up to its neck in property, the only way out of the hole was to ramp property again, there was no plan B, there was no alternative, there really was no alternative for the thousands of middle class professionals who without raging property prices were one way or another unemployable, the long term problem has not been solved, the pain has only been postponed because for thousands of families it is simply too much to bear


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:04 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......
No, NAMA wasn't selling in 2010. NAMA was in the 'put the floor under the market' stage in 2010. The general view at the time (if there was one) was that the discounts on the transfer of the loans was already a dead loss for the taxpayers (€40 Billion?) and that the entire scheme would be run as a way to bail out and enrich insiders. I think that was accurate enough, but perhaps some of us never imagined that an Irish government would actively go out of it's way to facilitate foreign vulture funds.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:00 am 
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Posts: 4128
TheJackal wrote:
Just 500m to go, 3 years ahead of the original 2020 schedule

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/04 ... nior-debt/

No mention of

a) what "profit" it expects to make over the 30.2bn [AHEM ignoring the loans par value was 74bn!]

b) are they closing off NAMA so in 2018? Or building houses or what? Future is very unclear

https://www.nama.ie/about-us/news/news- ... f-EUR952m/


Not quite..

Seems they spent a total 42,618M to repo/cash settle said senior debt since 2 March 2011..

https://www.nama.ie/fileadmin/user_upload/SubOrdinatedBondsTermsheet.pdf

I know this sort of a/c'ing can be weird (and this is a weird document) but I assume that is a net number not gross. 2B p.a to carry 30B balance sheet, declining.

The other number I'd love to see is the final tally of net losses on all Anglos Interest Rate Swaps contracts as they closed out / ran out. I'm sure they are nowhere near Dexias 30B / 40B plus losses but I seem to remember 10B/12B as a ball park number for cash calls etc about six / seven years ago. And when you add that to the 4B plus FX contracts losses, or was it 8B (net, not notional)...

As for the bottom feeder funds cleaning up that was a given once the Germans Chapter 11'ed the country in 2010. A 20% plus return on distressed sovereign assets is about usual. So maybe 10B plus sounds about right.

Thats what happens when you bankrupt a country by trying to cover up a 30B hot money deposit flight from a second tier bank using circular deposits by the first tier banks and the CB. Everone gets busted. The Germans might be able to cover up more than 200B of DB losses by offloading them onto Debfa and bankrupting it and then parking the rubble in FMS-WM - but consequences are for the little people, and their countries.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:30 am 
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Coles2 wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......
No, NAMA wasn't selling in 2010. NAMA was in the 'put the floor under the market' stage in 2010. The general view at the time (if there was one) was that the discounts on the transfer of the loans was already a dead loss for the taxpayers (€40 Billion?) and that the entire scheme would be run as a way to bail out and enrich insiders. I think that was accurate enough, but perhaps some of us never imagined that an Irish government would actively go out of it's way to facilitate foreign vulture funds.


Because 100% national control of the property sector served us so well, right?


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:37 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......

The pin consensus also favoured a dead cat bounce :)


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