It will be difficult but it needs to be done.







You don't need to be intellectual to understand why the euro is finished.

The dollar doesn't have the flaws inherent in the euro.

I understand that.
My point is that your absolutism with regard to the Euro is evidently flawed as it currently trades at a premium to the US Dollar. If it really were "finished" that would not be the case.

The world has not been this long US Dollars pretty much ever, but still the Euro can't hold below 1.25; sentiment is (as this thread shows) phenomenally negative on the Euro; I expect it will go much higher from here.

The euro may very well be in existence for the next few decades but I cannot see how countries such as Ireland and Greece will still be apart of that currency union.

Comparing the dollar and euro is equivilent to comparing two terminally-ill cancer patients; although one may appear healthier than the other, it doesn't negate the fact they are both on a downward spiral.

With regards to the survivablity of the euro, I think the PIIGS (and others) may be kicked out one by one, but the euro itself may still continue, just with fewer members.

If however, there is a dramatic policy divergence between France and Germany, then that's the end of it.

I suspect that the Euro will survive as a Northern/central European currency with no Piigs but with possibly Poland & other Central EU countries becoming members.

France will do what is needed to keep Germany close, too many wars will ensure that they'll prevent any wedge coming between them!

Mmmm-kay.

Yet, you can still buy pretty much anything you want or need with either of them, be that a BMW M5; a round of cancer treatment; or an apartment on Madison Avenue.

But good luck with that downward spiral. Which is, entirely, just a scary metaphor for inflation. Of which there is a minimum...


I know: this time next year Rodney....

I think Daniel and Mossy went off down a different tack than where I was going with this comment; so to clarify:

What Farage relentlessly points out is (i) the European institutional response to the crisis isnt working and (ii) the various EU leaders do not really have a democratic mandate to do the things they are trying to do, and they are not being honest about going and getting one. This bit he shares with Ganley and many other critics of the EU and the leaders of large Eurozone countries and he's spot on.

Farage of course, goes on to indulge himself in all kinds of other stuff as roc points out. He also has a style of speaking and accent designed to irritate a lot of Irish people. But frankly, thats irrelevant. He's not going to be in power anywhere anytime soon, thanks to the UK electoral system and his own internal inconsistencies.

As to what "the hole" is, well its two things really. One is that the debt and the deficits ARE unsustainable. Daniel P's comment that the debt and the deficits are not a problem would only be correct if the EU had an institutional structure like the US. In reality, the tax-raising power which is the core of sovereignty is vested in individual sovereign states and many of those states are hopelessly indebted and so are their private citizens. What DP says is like saying a six foot person can cross a river that is only five feet deep on average, and then you discover that its ten feet deep in the middle; you simply drown. Until we have a single tax raising authority across the Eurozone, the debt and the deficits matter.

The second and related problem, is the inadequate constitutional and institutional framework in Europe and the poor calibre of the incumbent leaders. Its not just the Euro which was jerry-built. The EU budget has never had a clean audit and the Commission itself is out of its depth. Remember those Irish MEPs who turn up to collect their Friday allowances before getting the lunch time flights to ski resorts ? Fancy turning to them for leadership ?

This is why Barroso saying something as dumb as "we can solve this within the treaties" matters. It underlines two things - firstly how out of touch the EU Commission are and secondly how arrogant they are not wanting to go back to national parliaments (never mind the Europeans they seek to rule) to get authority and support for far reaching change. They have an instinctive bias for the crappy temporary fudged solution over a real solution and a serious aversion to trusting any democratic process. It follows a long line of ludicrous statements by Commissioners in this crisis and it demonstrates that solutions are unlikely to come from Brussels. Its not surprising that he was contradicted by the Bundesbank within 24 hours.

Ditto Hollande - he is going to have a rude awakening on the tax and spending front and he had better have it soon or France will be in no shape to play any useful role. Ask yourself, are Farage's UK positions any nuttier than Hollande telling the French austerity will just go away ?

To come back to DP's point, I think idealism is going to be needed before long. Someone is going to have to persuade Europeans to create new institutions and fudged solutions wont work. The kitty is bare and it will be tough to bribe the electorate. Idealism is going to be all they have.

Thats all spot on...and the European project, when in the hands of genuine idealists can (and has been for much of its journey) be a force for good on what was a continent ravaged by constant catastrophic wars.

However, the same project in the hands of non-idealists, to include especially many of those I see hovering around the fringes at present, as well as some of those at its very heart, could quite conceivably morph into (if it hasnt already in some respect) little more than a gigantic, aggressive and exploitative trading bloc in a similar vein to some of the states and former states that its creation was supposed to reign in.

The underlying political intent of the Euro was and is to bring about increased economic integration. That primarily includes work habits and attitudes bearing on productivity. We see how in Germany, they are trying to promote increased profligacy, handing out wage increases etc. (as per FT on June 5th). In the southern countries and here they are doing the opposite. We see this is ongoing. We know that this is not the ultimate economic solution, but it is an important part of it in as far as it a large part of the political solution.

This Euro crisis is precipitating a political force that is advancing the European project and economic integration. The likes of Ganley and Farage do not like to see this. It can also be said that their motivations are of a much more base character than the motivations of those who are behind the European project.


A red herring. First, our system of democracy is based on representation. Direct democracy is completely unfeasible.( In fact, it would be catastrophic). I recommend this book to better understand the realities therein - http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/6456/pg6456.html The institutions of the EU are in fact entirely democratic – probably more democratic in the real sense of the word than anywhere else (demos –kratia). Actually they have a clear democratic mandate to do what they are doing – well set out in the Treaties of Maastricht, Amsterdam and Lisbon.

Aside

One of the, if not the most contentious political issue during the first 75 years after the establishment of the United States was the currency.

I thought Ganley wanted even greater EU integration. He is after all a federalist, no?

+1. I think roc may not have read much that Ganley has written lately. Ganley and Farage are in different universes w r t Europe.

base character motivations? Go away out of that.
What is the motivation of Irish career euro-integrationists like Laffan, Halligan, Dick Roche and Creighton then?

You must have been thoroughly brainwashed in a Masters in European Studies somewhere.

I am reminded of a reported quote of what Kingsley Amis said about pro-Soviets in the West - "If they didn't get it after Prague in 1968..they were never going to get it"

If you can't see that the Sarkozy Merkel behaviour during all this was deeply sinister then you're never going to get it.

Christ, Van Rompuy must really hate to see Farage get up and talk.
He always manages to get a few right hooks in.
Do they ever punch back or are they just hoping that Farage, like the EuroCrisis, will one day just disappear?