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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 9:01 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Yes, but the system is about choosing least bad choices. I don't see anyone who represents me either. I despite the self-interest, corruption and pork-barrelling of all politicians, bar none. The alternative, though, is, as you say, disengagement, which will result in worse outcomes. Hitler won a 2/3rds majority with 44% of the eligible voters. He was elected into power, in part by his supporters, in part by that 20% whose votes are easily bought by any old chicken-shit and in part by those who chose not to oppose him.

As Barney Gumble points out, aside from the 20%, there's 40% who don't really want major change, less tax for them personally, more spending on their pet issues would probably sum them up.


What he said.

You think democratic politics is so utterly pointless and pettily corrupt and ignorant and self-serving that a different system couldn't be any worse until you spend time in a non-democratic country and witness the utter contempt with which the ruling elite treat their citizens and the absolute complacency with which the most basic human rights are ignored. I find it odd that the people who tend to be most dismissive of parliamentary democracy are those who are crossest that their particular viewpoint, normally a minority one, is not adequately listened to or reflected by politicians and/or MSM. I think it would probably be a salutary lesson to spend a year or two espousing a minority political/social position in a country without democratic politics, the rule of law, freedom of expression and a functioning and non-corrupt judicial system to see how that works out.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 9:29 pm 
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Barney Gumble wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
But there is a reason for the disengagement Yogan (and the fact that this has been inevitable since about 2008 - and many of us here have been saying so)...and its partly down to the fact that no matter who you vote for, in reality you are voting for the same thing (unless you are going the local issues route...which may actually be the thing that spares Ireland from the worst effects of the extremist bug....saved by gombeenist clientelism so to speak!).

But isn't this nearly always the case? Different flavours of essentially the same system? The same rules with different emphasis?

It's only if you get everyone to vote for the ULA, or some fascists, or radicals of whatever stripe, that you'd see major structural changes in your society. At present, from a 'mainstream' perspective, you have the bailouts or you have chaos. No mainstream party is going to stand up and ask you to choose chaos - even if in reality the chaos is likely to be short-lived (say a year or two) compared to a decade or two of grinding austerity.


Not true. If you voted Thatcher in 1979 or FDR in 1932 you got major structural change. Likewise, if you voted Labour in 1997 you got major changes (devolution, BoE independence). The key ingredient is charismatic leadership, not policy options. Our democratic system has so far produced really poor leadership alternatives, given the depth of our crisis and the depth of the adjustment to come.

I think a NO vote here in the upcoming referendum would actually force a lot of structural adjustment. It would expose the BS at the heart of the conformist side of Irish politics. O'Cuiv is right strategically to take the stance he is taking - not sure he will be the winner, but there is no percentage in supporting the status quo. Once the electorate realise the depth of austerity still to come, only the opposition will be winners.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 8:39 am 
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So as expected no government
Elections Part 2 to follow
Quote:
The leader of Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) Alexis Tsipras is due to meet the heads of PASOK and New Democracy on Wednesday but his slim chances of forming a unity government seem to have disappeared and Greece is likely to hold new elections next month.

Tsipras spent Tuesday, the first of three days he is permitted to try to form a government, in talks with leftist parties but had mixed success in convincing them to support his effort to form an administration that would challenge the terms of Greece’s bailout. However, the SYRIZA leader’s decision to set out certain terms for any cooperation, including the rejection of the loan deal with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, prompted a strong reaction from PASOK and New Democracy, which made it clear that there is hardly any ground for agreement.

SYRIZA won an unprecedented 16.78 percent of the vote on Sunday but would still need the support of either ND or PASOK to form a majority government. It has the option of forming an administration with just 120 MPs rather than 151 but the government would need to pass a vote of confidence.


While all of this is going on, Greece has to come up with billions in Cuts before the end of June. How can this happen?
If it doesnt come up with the cuts will it be out of the Euro by the end of the year?

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 8:54 am 
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Fooled by randomness wrote:
Not true. If you voted Thatcher in 1979 or FDR in 1932 you got major structural change.

Indeed. Hence my use of the phrase, 'nearly always the case'. I do wonder what would happen should we get a 'no' vote this time - but I'd rather voluntary, planned reform along the lines of a Second Republic, new constitution, electoral list system and so forth, not a rush to the extremes along Greek lines which is not going to end at all well.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 9:02 am 
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Barney Gumble wrote:
Fooled by randomness wrote:
Not true. If you voted Thatcher in 1979 or FDR in 1932 you got major structural change.

Indeed. Hence my use of the phrase, 'nearly always the case'. I do wonder what would happen should we get a 'no' vote this time - but I'd rather voluntary, planned reform along the lines of a Second Republic, new constitution, electoral list system and so forth, not a rush to the extremes along Greek lines which is not going to end at all well.


no one is proposing a voluntary planned reform. The looting continues unabated.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 9:08 am 
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jake76 wrote:
no one is proposing a voluntary planned reform. The looting continues unabated.

Plenty of people are - but not those in power, oddly enough.


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 9:13 am 
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jake76 wrote:
Barney Gumble wrote:
Fooled by randomness wrote:
Not true. If you voted Thatcher in 1979 or FDR in 1932 you got major structural change.

Indeed. Hence my use of the phrase, 'nearly always the case'. I do wonder what would happen should we get a 'no' vote this time - but I'd rather voluntary, planned reform along the lines of a Second Republic, new constitution, electoral list system and so forth, not a rush to the extremes along Greek lines which is not going to end at all well.


no one is proposing a voluntary planned reform. The looting continues unabated.


Globalisation put an end to political parties offering major structural change. National governmental power has been severly weakened in terms of domestic economic and social policy. Thats largely why the left have been found wanting; the discourse has become about "capital flight" and the "pro business policies" lest that other guy get a greater share of that footloose global investment.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 9:28 am 
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txirimiri wrote:
What he said.

You think democratic politics is so utterly pointless and pettily corrupt and ignorant and self-serving that a different system couldn't be any worse until you spend time in a non-democratic country and witness the utter contempt with which the ruling elite treat their citizens and the absolute complacency with which the most basic human rights are ignored. I find it odd that the people who tend to be most dismissive of parliamentary democracy are those who are crossest that their particular viewpoint, normally a minority one, is not adequately listened to or reflected by politicians and/or MSM. I think it would probably be a salutary lesson to spend a year or two espousing a minority political/social position in a country without democratic politics, the rule of law, freedom of expression and a functioning and non-corrupt judicial system to see how that works out.


While the above may be quite valid and even praiseworthy in some respects (as are the opinions offered by both Yogan and Barney above), it is not without flaws in its logic.

Firstly, it is based on the assumption that different political entities are basically entirely separate from one another and exist in a vaccuum of their own. In this regard it ignores the interlinked nature of the global economy, which is itself a trans-national entity which traverses borders, and of which we are all a part. Therefore, while we are obviously in a position as individuals, possessed of our own views and opinions, free to formulate viewpoints and opinions with regard to how particular societies function and make judgements based on same with regard to whether we may view one as being superior or otherwise to another, the reality is that we, as westerners, benefit in economic terms from the fact that others live within economically and often politically repressive environments...essentially that they do not enjoy the benefits that we do. So, it could actually be argued that western democracy itself, seemingly based as it has been during the course of my lifetime on the ability of its citizens to play the role of mass consumers, is itself based on its own ability to provide said consumers (read voters) with cheap bling and tat produced in poorer and more repressive regions of the globe such as those referred to by you above.

Secondly, the point here is not that anyone is cheerleading the demise of democracy just yet. It is however the case that some people are seemingly becoming disillusioned with the system as it stands for the simple reason that it appears to have very little power to act in any meaningful way to address the current problems. As Yogan has pointed out this is what happened pre-WW2 even down to the citing of international bankers/financiers and minority or marginalised societal groups as being the true problems. Like I said, it all seems so predictable...and it doesnt matter whether we deem it to be 'better' or 'worse'. Its happening and will continue to happen so long as events continue along their current (predictable) course.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 11:09 am 
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I personally think that democracy as we knew it is dead, in Ireland, Greece and Italy anyway. We are all, different forms of Technocratic government either directly as in Greece and Italy or behind the scenes in our case through the ECB/IMF. One of the basic functions of the state is that it raises revenue and decides where that money goes. We can neither raise enough money nor are we free to decide where that money goes.

If we are to regain our democracy then we will need to regain our economic freedom and I fear the longer we leave it off the harder it'll become to do so.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 11:41 am 
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tulip wrote:
I personally think that democracy as we knew it is dead, in Ireland, Greece and Italy anyway. We are all, different forms of Technocratic government either directly as in Greece and Italy or behind the scenes in our case through the ECB/IMF. One of the basic functions of the state is that it raises revenue and decides where that money goes. We can neither raise enough money nor are we free to decide where that money goes.

If we are to regain our democracy then we will need to regain our economic freedom and I fear the longer we leave it off the harder it'll become to do so.


I think you're wrong. I think our democracy is functioning as it always has. Certainly, some of the candidates I voted for in the last election got elected, and some didn't, same as all the previous elections. You can't say democracy isn't working just because we choose to pay our debts. No debtor is free to decide where their money goes. We spent -- and continue with every passing month to spend -- other people's money. Money that we didn't work for and have no earthly right to. Why on earth should we get to decide where our tax revenue goes in that situation? Would you expect to be able to borrow off your neighbour to pay your bills every month and then, come pay day, spend your pay cheque on whatever you like? Certainly we can raise enough money -- we just have to spend a lot less of it. It's a very simple equation.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 12:05 pm 
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Quote:
ECB executive board member Jörg Asmussen in the Handelsblatt (Google translation):

“Greece must be clear that it agreed to this rehabilitation program is no alternative, if it wants to remain a member of the Euro-zone,”


Couldnt be clearer but i have no idea what he means by rehabilitation
Maybe lost in Translation :x

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05 ... dcontent=1

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 1:38 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
tulip wrote:
I personally think that democracy as we knew it is dead, in Ireland, Greece and Italy anyway. We are all, different forms of Technocratic government either directly as in Greece and Italy or behind the scenes in our case through the ECB/IMF. One of the basic functions of the state is that it raises revenue and decides where that money goes. We can neither raise enough money nor are we free to decide where that money goes.

If we are to regain our democracy then we will need to regain our economic freedom and I fear the longer we leave it off the harder it'll become to do so.


I think you're wrong. I think our democracy is functioning as it always has. Certainly, some of the candidates I voted for in the last election got elected, and some didn't, same as all the previous elections. You can't say democracy isn't working just because we choose to pay our debts. No debtor is free to decide where their money goes. We spent -- and continue with every passing month to spend -- other people's money. Money that we didn't work for and have no earthly right to. Why on earth should we get to decide where our tax revenue goes in that situation? Would you expect to be able to borrow off your neighbour to pay your bills every month and then, come pay day, spend your pay cheque on whatever you like? Certainly we can raise enough money -- we just have to spend a lot less of it. It's a very simple equation.


I agree with you in that it's functioning as it always has but in the past when we messed up our fate was still in our hands. I've not a great knowledge of Irish financial history but the country has been in worse states than it is now and we've not had technocratic government. Now through a gradual slide of giving more power to Europe we have lost the power to make the maneuvers we would've before to extricate ourselves.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 1:45 pm 
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tulip wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
tulip wrote:
I personally think that democracy as we knew it is dead, in Ireland, Greece and Italy anyway. We are all, different forms of Technocratic government either directly as in Greece and Italy or behind the scenes in our case through the ECB/IMF. One of the basic functions of the state is that it raises revenue and decides where that money goes. We can neither raise enough money nor are we free to decide where that money goes.

If we are to regain our democracy then we will need to regain our economic freedom and I fear the longer we leave it off the harder it'll become to do so.


I think you're wrong. I think our democracy is functioning as it always has. Certainly, some of the candidates I voted for in the last election got elected, and some didn't, same as all the previous elections. You can't say democracy isn't working just because we choose to pay our debts. No debtor is free to decide where their money goes. We spent -- and continue with every passing month to spend -- other people's money. Money that we didn't work for and have no earthly right to. Why on earth should we get to decide where our tax revenue goes in that situation? Would you expect to be able to borrow off your neighbour to pay your bills every month and then, come pay day, spend your pay cheque on whatever you like? Certainly we can raise enough money -- we just have to spend a lot less of it. It's a very simple equation.


I agree with you in that it's functioning as it always has but in the past when we messed up our fate was still in our hands. I've not a great knowledge of Irish financial history but the country has been in worse states than it is now and we've not had technocratic government. Now through a gradual slide of giving more power to Europe we have lost the power to make the maneuvers we would've before to extricate ourselves.


When have we been in a worse financial position?
What powers of maneuvering have we lost?


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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 1:55 pm 
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qwerty wrote:
tulip wrote:
I agree with you in that it's functioning as it always has but in the past when we messed up our fate was still in our hands. I've not a great knowledge of Irish financial history but the country has been in worse states than it is now and we've not had technocratic government. Now through a gradual slide of giving more power to Europe we have lost the power to make the maneuvers we would've before to extricate ourselves.


When have we been in a worse financial position?
What powers of maneuvering have we lost?

I'm open to correction but the 30s/50's and 80's were probably worse than now.

We've apparently lost the ability to allow a bank to go bust. It may be argued that we've lost to willingness to allow one go bust, but I wonder where that unwillingness comes from.
We've also lost our own currency. Whether you agree with QE or not it is a tool, one that we've used in the past.

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 Post subject: Re: EU "will not bail out Greece"
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 2:12 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
... We spent -- and continue with every passing month to spend -- other people's money. Money that we didn't work for and have no earthly right to...

What nonsense. Hard working population currently around 3 million. GDP generated around 250 billion euro. So that's around Euro 85,000 per working person created. Public expenditure for 2012 is budgeted at €55.8 billion. So where does the other 195B go created by the blood and sweat and intellectual effort (admittedly organised to a large extent by US organisational know-how) of the Irish work-force? Perhaps those so overly concerned with the 'deficit' would do better to focus on the 195B side of the equation than their continued whittling away at the 55B side. ie. Look to their own coffers and to the coffers of their own paymasters.

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