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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 1:04 pm 
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slasher wrote:
any thoughts as to why the SocDems haven't made a breakthrough in the polls?


+ No real genuine leadership material within ranks.
+ Social grooming by politicians and their sweeties aided by a complicit EU makes for apathy much.
+ Unacknowledged damage done by losing a third generation of native born children. Lots of people, never coming back.
+ Those still here left detailing with the economic and social fallout, now tired and worn out.

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 1:31 pm 
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slasher wrote:
any thoughts as to why the SocDems haven't made a breakthrough in the polls?


They had Stephen Donnelly who was very good in the last leadership debate. Punched way about his weight - but now he's in FF so the SocDems have two co-leaders nearing the end of their time. They need to get at least three or four new faces in the Dail next time around or they may fold up the tent. Really, they need to have seven TDs, get speaking rights and eclipse Labour, otherwise they should just join Labour after the election - indeed, if Lab don't have seven seats that could well be the only option for both.

The other main explanation is SF. SDs were pretty close in some constituencies - e.g. Gary Gannon in Dublin Central. Very tough constituency though. Mary-Lou will get even more first prefs. Many will go to Christy Burke (Ind but ex-SF?). Maybe if Joe Costello or Maureen O'Sullivan retires, Gannon gets in.

I mention that constituency as it was the closest they came (from memory) to a 4th seat and there's no guarantee of a breakthrough there.

Question is whether SocDem's members (young/new ones not Shortall and Murphy) would join Alan Kelly's Labour (presuming he gets in again and is the next leader). Or maybe Labour fails to recover and their grassroots join SocDem (riskier). There's no room for both in the long run, especially with SF tip-toeing into the centre-left.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 12:53 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:

Question is whether SocDem's members (young/new ones not Shortall and Murphy) would join Alan Kelly's Labour (presuming he gets in again and is the next leader). Or maybe Labour fails to recover and their grassroots join SocDem (riskier). There's no room for both in the long run, especially with SF tip-toeing into the centre-left.


i vaguely recall something in the phoenix magazine about the relationship between SF and SDs, it wasnt pretty.

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 5:25 pm 
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A few of the first-time ministers hit the two-year mark this week which qualifies them for mega-pensions. May as well stay in government while they can but if it all comes crashing down in June...ho hum...they are already golden. (I'm not usually so cynical but that was certainly a factor helping to focus minds during the Frances Fitzgerald crisis, judicial reform bill and other pressure points.)


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 5:36 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
A few of the first-time ministers hit the two-year mark this week which qualifies them for mega-pensions. May as well stay in government while they can but if it all comes crashing down in June...ho hum...they are already golden. (I'm not usually so cynical but that was certainly a factor helping to focus minds during the Frances Fitzgerald crisis, judicial reform bill and other pressure points.)


Very astute observation. I had thought the date for the referendum was also designed to encourage a win scenario on many levels but particularly a nice sign off for many students (Friday polling day) looking forward to a summer vials while also affording the politicians a work-lite trajectory for their long summer recess as they bask in their progressive glory and maybe villa-it-up with a few of their Brave New World Buds having fought off the enemy at the gates.

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:13 pm 
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slasher wrote:
any thoughts as to why the SocDems haven't made a breakthrough in the polls?

That's him over there... Splitter!

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 10:04 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
A few of the first-time ministers hit the two-year mark this week which qualifies them for mega-pensions. May as well stay in government while they can but if it all comes crashing down in June...ho hum...they are already golden. (I'm not usually so cynical but that was certainly a factor helping to focus minds during the Frances Fitzgerald crisis, judicial reform bill and other pressure points.)


I think it qualifies them not to have their first 2 years pension contribs returned like all PS/CS staff. There are certainly some aspects of political pensions which are quite/very generous but there isn't a transition on day 730 which suddenly makes you a zillionaire. I could however see it being a motivation to hang on beyond 2 years for sure.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 12:34 pm 
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@Namawinelake predicting a general election in a few months
https://twitter.com/namawinelake/status ... 8722844672


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 12:52 pm 
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Does anybody believe the Fine Gael voters in Dublin Bay South care about homelessness (that much)? Who would they switch their preference to that would match their values and beliefs and also advocate for homeless better?


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 1:00 pm 
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SocDems, Greens, NationalParty

It's more to do with the accumulating scandals: Housing, Health, Garda, DoBrien, Water, Transport, Immigration is a biggie, endless Corruption etc etc

Just think, a certain person in a European country decided to run for office and basically destroyed the two main established parties by winning parliament and presidency. Il s'appelle Emmanuel.
Could something similar happen here?


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 1:58 pm 
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temene wrote:
Could something similar happen here?


IMO no, only possible in a presidential system, not Westminster.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:19 pm 
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temene wrote:
SocDems, Greens, NationalParty

It's more to do with the accumulating scandals: Housing, Health, Garda, DoBrien, Water, Transport, Immigration is a biggie, endless Corruption etc etc

Just think, a certain person in a European country decided to run for office and basically destroyed the two main established parties by winning parliament and presidency. Il s'appelle Emmanuel.
Could something similar happen here?

I don't think National Party or Immigration are relevant to Dublin Bay South, I would have said the constituency is fiscally conservative but socially liberal. Highest Yes vote in marriage referendum being my yarstick, Lucinda/Renua rejected.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:13 pm 
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temene wrote:
@Namawinelake predicting a general election in a few months
https://twitter.com/namawinelake/status ... 8722844672

Dublin Bay South will probably end up with:
Eamonn Ryan - not because he's any good but because he has kept his arrogance level down and he is also a good vote getter - he nearly doubled his first preference vote to end up being elected being first
Jim O'Callaghan - not because he's any good but because he has been careful when he has opened his mouth and he hasn't done enough to be found out - very similar to Eoghan Murphy was before he got promoted beyond his ability. It also looks as though there is a slight breeze behind FF. He also got 1000 votes from Lucinda - in the absence of any other nut-job these will probably stay with the established parties.

They are the only ones I would put money on.

For the other 2 seats I believe there will be one FG. It will probably be Murphy because he got the biggest transfer from Lucinda (1000 votes - Kate got 500) - see point about JOC above. Kate OConnell did very poorly on transfers - only 21% higher after transfers. She has done nothing in the Dail apart from plead to get a relative into the Senate. People had high hopes for her - I don't think she has lived up to them. Unless she get's considerably higher first preferences than Eoghan Murphy she is doomed.

So then there is Labour - they missed out the last time - probably because Kevin Humphries has steadily eroded the Labour vote with this incompetence. Again he reminds me of Eoghan Murphy - you know the kid at school who tries and tries and you just know he's not going to make it and eventually you feel sorry for him. Labour had the opportunity to run Ivana Bacik in the past and they failed to grasp it - she would have guaranteed them a seat for life in this constituency. I don't see them doing it this time either - Labour is an old mans club whose time is well gone - they'll still get a few thousand votes and those could be important.

Sinn Fein ran Chris Andrews the last time and it showed him up for the political dilettante that he is - he'll probably try and get a safe FF seat next time. If they get a good candidate they might do well enough to blood them for the election after next. Unless they get someone spectacular they won't be at the table this time.

I guess the Soc Dems are dead - Gemma Lynch could have been a good candidate and she did well on a first showing but she said she wouldn't run again so there is no opportunity to capitalise on that.

We could have a maverick candidate - somebody who parachutes in - DBS and DSE as was were great gas for this but there's nobody you could see out there who could do it successfully.

Personally I think Annette Mooney has a chance - she's very personable and she's well liked around the constituency. She's in a position to get a lot of the vote that SF are chasing, and I think she could take any vestiges of the non-champagne-socialist votes that are left in the Labour bag. If she gets ahead of Labour and/or Sinn Fein she could be chasing Kate OConnell close when they get eliminated. I reckon there is a hard-left (in Irish terms) vote of about 3000 in this constituency and a soft left of about 2000 and a decent candidate should be able to get 2000 more in transfers - that's enough to get elected

So with the current candidate list I go Ryan, OCallaghan, Murphy, Mooney (with OConnell a close outside possibility).

I love this shit! - bring on the election.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:43 pm 
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metalmike wrote:
Labour had the opportunity to run Ivana Bacik in the past and they failed to grasp it - she would have guaranteed them a seat for life in this constituency. I don't see them doing it this time either - Labour is an old mans club whose time is well gone - they'll still get a few thousand votes and those could be important.


If Bacik couldn't get elected in 2010 in Dun Laoghaire then I don't think she ever will, they should put Úna Doolally on the ticket maybe that will work

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 5:46 pm 
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temene wrote:
@Namawinelake predicting a general election in a few months https://twitter.com/namawinelake/status ... 8722844672

Ivan Yates also predicting a general election to be called https://www.independent.ie/opinion/colu ... 53309.html

FF cannot keep agreeing with FG on all the crap happening or they'll both be destroyed in future


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