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 Post subject: A Post 8th Amendment world.
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:06 pm 
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Exit poll says 68% yes. Margin of error +/- 1.5%.

Wow.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:10 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
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Landslide for the Yes side


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:15 pm 
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http://www.thejournal.ie/referendum-yes ... 5-May2018/


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:24 pm 
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It'll be interesting to see how close the exit polls are to the actual vote.

Either way, it looks like a fairly resounding YES.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:29 pm 
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voted (Yes) at 7.30 this morning, 3rd time voting at that polling station at that time, never seen it so busy, a well-worn cliche but a proud day to be Irish if the exit polls hold up.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:30 pm 
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Proud to be Irish today, also proud to have the hobbit as our president.

Thank you to all of the voters on both sides that contributed to this thread, it was a rare spot of debate and engagement that mostly stayed civil.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:30 pm 
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RTE at 69.4%

Will be interesting to see a breakdown of the Yes vote


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:44 pm 
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Those are staggering numbers. I'd say both YES and NO camps are in a bit of shock.

I stand by my view that todays vote was also a vote on the proposed legislation, and with that kind of majority I think the government is entitled to enact it as published.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 12:42 am 
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Too Big to Fail

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Posts: 4231
ps200306 wrote:
jmc wrote:
Now the really ironic thing is that it turns out that for the first time in over a decade I will actually be physically present in the Dublin North constituency on a polling day. And not in Germany this week as I originally expected. So with a nice symmetry I will be voting to set aside the truly pathetic amendment which I voted against 35 years ago.

And very much in the spirit that you dont vote for something but against something I thought you'd like to know that I'll be traipsing down to the local National School tomorrow to cast my vote purely to negate your one. To cancel it out. Nothing personal.

And here's another irony. You had the gall to post about "massive voter fraud" in the country where you live. Now you're arriving on our shores to commit voter fraud here. Shame on you. Pity I don't have an address for you, I'd report you in a heartbeat.

jmc wrote:
It was no accident that as I meandered around town today the ... No canvassers I saw were all late middle aged / old men with a bitter, angry or surly demeanor.

Most of the No canvassers I know are young women, but you must have felt in familiar company. Have you ever written anything in these pages that wasn't bitter, angry and resentful? People have been calling you out on it around here for as long as I can remember (best part of a decade), whether it's the hairy revisionist Zelig-style history or namecalling everything from Catholics to Calvinists. You sound like a right barrel of fun. :D


Glad to see you are channeling your inner gombeen tribal knuckle dragging peasant who considers the vote as nothing more than a property right.

As you know I have multiple citizenships. I have a legal right to vote by law in any of the countries of which I am a citizen of under the rules that govern voting in that country. I have always done so. In the ROI I have just as much a *legal* right to vote today as you did. Got that. My franchise is every bit as valid as yours. The fact that you are so affronted by me exercising my *legal* right to vote today just proves what a totally perverse idea of democracy far too many Irish people have. And why it is still little better than a banana republic because there are far too many people with attitudes like yours. With the result that there are really only two political parties. Me fein and Sein Fein. With a few lonely conservatives, Christian Democrats, Social Democrats etc on the very lonely fringes.

In the Republic of Ireland I have been on the voting register since 1980. I have exercised my vote in the ROI to the letter of the law. Which I may add I know far far better than you seem to do. As I have alluded to in the past here in the last 35 odd years my visits to Ireland have been anywhere from 6 week to a cumulative 18 months. With interludes in several of the other countries where I have immediate family. Now after 1984 due to Irelands uniquely restrictive voting laws there have only been a very few occasions when my residency in Ireland has overlapped with a voting opportunity. In fact only 3 times in the last 30 plus years. It just happened that today was one of them. The deepest of ironies.

If it had been any of the other recent referenda I would not have bothered voting because they were either pointless or trivial. But considering just how utterly disgusted I was by what had happened in 1983 and just how important what happened back then was in convincing me at the time that the country was incorrigible and utterly unreformably then I did take an interest in the outcome but I still probably would have abstained. It was the fact that so many people here were posting such asinine opinions convinced me that if the short side trip to Germany did not happen then I would try to vote. But ultimately it was your extremely pathetic attempts at trying to be patronizing from a position of complete ignorance and knee jerk reactionary Catholic bigotry that made certain I was going to vote. If nothing else it gave me both the perfect wind up and the perfect put down.

Your postings here on this subject have been those of a petty small minded buffoon. It has become very obvious from your postings that you lived both a sheltered and an unreflective life. With little first hand experience of the really awful things that happen out in the real world. Which some of us most certainly have. You seem to lack that basic humanity and empathy that comes with these terrible experiences. No one but the completely ignorant show the utter certainty of their correctness of their opinions which you have broadcast again and again on these sort of subjects.

The difference between you and me is, that based on the evidence here, I know exactly what kind of world you grew up and have lived in as an adult but you have not the slightness fucking clue about the worlds I live in. Even in the Irish context a number of people here over the years have shown a deep first hand knowledge of the inner workings of the Irish establishment, confirmed in PM conversations, but I have seen no evidence so far in your postings here that you have any first hand knowledge of any of the the events or people involved over the years. Or any real understanding of them. Or really any more understanding than the average Joe Duffy caller. My involvement has been tangential over the years, I try to avoid this crap, but based on conversations I've had with journalists over that last decade or so nothing ever changes. Once you have seen how it works up close you can go away for a while and come back and immediately pick up where you left off. And that in a nutshell is the difference between you and me. Based on the evidence presented here you seem to have lived a life of well deserved obscurity knowing little outside a very small orbit of a life lived small. Me, I have had to actively avoid getting sucked into high profile situations over the decades, but saying that, I got to meet some interesting people, got to work on some great projects, you probably used some of my handwork over the years, I get to live in some really nice places and get to spend extended periods of time in a whole bunch of countries. Which includes Ireland.

And I even get to vote in a way that deeply annoys jumped up little twerps. Just one more of life's little pleasures.

Odds and ends. I did see a lone female No canvasser today. She was closer to 70 than 60. All the rest were late middle aged men. Looking annoyed. I noticed that they had all fecked off from outside the train stations before 6pm. Having given up the fight. The Yes lot were still going strong and despite seeing lots and lots of women with Yes buttons etc I did not see a single women with a No button. Anywhere. In Central Dublin. And it was pretty busy today as it was such a nice day. At least back in 1983 you did see some women with Yes buttons. Even if they were Catholic hitlerjungen types.

One more thing. Your threat to report me. Given that I have a legal right to be on the voting register and I exercised in a completely legal fashion my right to vote today your threat to "report me" opens you up to a whole bunch of very interesting potential charges under various voting rights and human rights statutes and conventions which the ROI is a party to. Like to meet at the front door of, say, the Store St Garda Station to discuss this particular subject with the very nice desk sergeant? I'm sure he would explain to you fairly quickly why this particular approach of yours could prove very counter productive. For you. Just saying. If you want to play silly buggers I can introduce you to a whole new level of embuggeration.

Much nicer to meet over coffee and talk about some non contentious neutral subject. Like astronomy for instance. A much more productive use of your time as its a subject that you actually know something about.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 3:36 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Posts: 6114
Location: On the Road
That's some result if true.

I can only assume the more hardline NO campaigners turned people off with their antics.

Anyway, this threads been a learning exercise for me so thanks to all who contributed.

_________________
"It is difficult to be certain about anything except what you have seen with your own eyes, and consciously or unconsciously everyone writes as a partisan.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 6:40 am 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1176
Location: In the Sandpit.
Whatever the result, it does seem like Yes has it.

It remains to be seen what appetite the No-supporting TDs have to challenge the proposed legislation and call for amendments. I can see a new tactic arising where the No side start the promote the view that the vote can only be properly be interpreted as ensuring that "Provision may be made by law for the regulation of termination of pregnancy". Nothing else. That the debate over the legislation only starts now.

There may be some collective amnesia on the part of the No side, that they made hay out of the proposed legislation during the campaign.

The argument will change, to instead start promoting an ""alternative less expansive abortion regime". After all, the No side can point to the fact that they were talking about this in the last few days of the referendum; that the proposed regime is "too extreme". That what they really wanted was "that there should be more (some!) restrictions in place with regard to what is permitted."

I imagine these talking points were carefully crafted in the expectation of a narrow win for Yes and not the predicted landslide vote we seem to have. (A large minority No vote could have been leveraged as a "mandate" for the aforementioned arguments.)

Still, these talking points constitute a jumping off point for the No-side for the next phase of the debate.

(This approach would be similar to the Remainer argument over Brexit - that people knew what they were voting against and not what they were voting for. A similar pattern may be seen here yet.)

I'd imagine the No side will take a month or so to regroup and we'll start again. Certainly No-TDs will want to put their consciousness on record in the debates in the Dail.

I do hope I'm wrong, as I'm as tired of this as anyone. But as I said before, this debate will never end.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:23 am 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1176
Location: In the Sandpit.
london_irish wrote:
Still, these talking points constitute a jumping off point for the No-side for the next phase of the debate.


I didn't have to wait long! https://www.rte.ie/news/eighth-amendmen ... 6132-reax/
Quote:
In a statement Love Both spokesperson Dr Ruth Cullen said it would hold the Taoiseach to his promise of limited abortion.

She said the exit polls "paint a bleak picture for retention of the Eighth Amendment."

"If the exit polls are borne out today, it will represent a sea-change on abortion in Ireland and sadly pave the way for an abortion regime that has nothing to do with healthcare and everything to do with abortion on demand."

"We will hold the Taoiseach to his promise that repeal would only lead to abortion in very restrictive circumstances. He gave his word on this, now he must deliver on it. No doubt many people voted for repeal based on the Taoiseach's promises in this regard" she added.

The spin will continue.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:36 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 5194
With this clear mandate I'd expect now that all parties will seek to get the proposed legislation over the line as quickly as possible unchanged. They'll be no appetite for dragging this one out any longer.

With the 18-34 group voting at least 5-1 against retaining the 8th, the age correlations are so strong that the No campaigners must recognise that support for their position will erode even further as the older cohort dies, and must pin their hopes on some kind of neo-conservative revolution amongst a future young generation, or simply abandon the legislative route and campaign on social media and outside abortion clinics (if such things come to pass) like their US counterparts.

I'm sure there will be a bit of jumping up and down amongst people who actually did get out there and actively campaign for Yes, but for the most part the feeling I get from within my social echo chamber is a quiet sigh of relief that this is over.

This is not like the gay marriage thing. Nobody wants abortions.

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"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
Tyrion Lannister


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:02 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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I'm really curious as to what happens for Fianna Fail now, being the one party with a declared NO majority. Mehole will be safe as he backed the right horse but I can't see much change in the party happening, especially when I think 22 of them voted against the referendum being held.

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Every single frozen corpse on Everest was once a highly motivated person.

Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:06 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 620
london_irish wrote:
london_irish wrote:
Still, these talking points constitute a jumping off point for the No-side for the next phase of the debate.


I didn't have to wait long! https://www.rte.ie/news/eighth-amendmen ... 6132-reax/
Quote:
In a statement Love Both spokesperson Dr Ruth Cullen said it would hold the Taoiseach to his promise of limited abortion.

She said the exit polls "paint a bleak picture for retention of the Eighth Amendment."

"If the exit polls are borne out today, it will represent a sea-change on abortion in Ireland and sadly pave the way for an abortion regime that has nothing to do with healthcare and everything to do with abortion on demand."

"We will hold the Taoiseach to his promise that repeal would only lead to abortion in very restrictive circumstances. He gave his word on this, now he must deliver on it. No doubt many people voted for repeal based on the Taoiseach's promises in this regard" she added.

The spin will continue.


Obviously the support of TDs is required to influence the legislation. It would be a very brave TD who thinks it is politically smart to try and water it down.


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