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 Post subject: Willie O'Dea raises keyboard against "merchants of doom
PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:07 am 
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As I have stated, here is a good analogy for the problem facing the economy at present: it is like the fate of a shop beside a large factory.
When the factory starts laying off staff and cutting back on production it has a knock-on effect for the shopkeeper's household.

Notwithstanding the shopkeeper's ingenuity, they cannot start budgeting for second holidays or shop improvements until the factory picks up. The factory does not look like it will start taking on more staff and picking up production for another year or so.
The coming months will be difficult. Saying that we have faced worse is meagre consolation in the face of increasing oil and food prices. But there is an important difference.
Back in the Eighties there was no sign of hope. Today, we know that the saving and controls we are making now will yield benefits for the years ahead.

Merchants of gloom think we're still living in the past
Ireland is better placed today to weather current political crises, says Willie O'Dea
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analy ... 36109.html


Ah but Minister O'Dea, what happens when the shopkeepers costs rise faster than he can find cost savings? He's already down on revenue (less taxpayers).

Oh that's right, he has to pass the rising costs on (more taxes), now the shopping center management who control the infrastructure decide to charge for parking (Iarnrod Eireann), so even less people are buying from him, in fact they go where it's cheaper (Germany, N. I.), so even less revenue. So in response the shopkeeper starts laying off staff and cutting product lines (watch the HSE), but that's a productivity improvement as the remaining staff have to work harder so they go on strike for more money.

During the boom the shopkeeper was robbed, they caught the robber, but the shopping centre chairman (Bertie Ahern) negotiated a 60/40 split with the robbers, where the shopkeeper only got 60 percent of the goods returned.

An external consultant (the IMF) looking at the books of the shopping centre shook his head and said this was unsustainable, but the internal auditors (central bank) said everything was ok, the shopkeeper was robust and had plenty of capital reserves to sustain him and if he needed more he could borrow 3% of his revenue.

Eventually, the shopkeeper went bust and the store was turned to a soup kitchen (dole office), and former workers from the factory (that had now closed due to rising costs) and former shopkeeper lined up for rations, the management had to borrow money at higher interest rates to keep center operational. Eventually it went bust and had to be bailed out for a song by a major conglomerate (EU), who bought off the existing management, cut everyone's wages and issued orders from head office and sweated the assets.


Perhaps the government should reflect on this:

Behold, we are servants this day, and as for the land that you gave to our fathers to eat the fruit of it and the good of it, behold, we are servants in it.
Nehemiah 9:36

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:12 pm 
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Let's see your CV Willie before we even bother listening to your interpretation of economics.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:51 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:43 pm 
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geckko wrote:
Let's see your CV Willie before we even bother listening to your interpretation of economics.


Eh Geckko,

Given the quality of shite emminating from people who are 'Leading Economists' working for major Banks, I don't think you can use that stick to beat Willie :)

Plenty of other sticks lying around though :P

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:02 am 
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As long as our leaders carry on with the "blind optimism over realism" strategy we're in trouble.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:52 am 
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johnnyskeleton wrote:
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I love this photo. What was he thinking allowing this to be taken? Seriously?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:26 am 
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Are there other European countries who give their Ministers prime column space with such regularity?


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:32 am 
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whizzbang wrote:
johnnyskeleton wrote:
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I love this photo. What was he thinking allowing this to be taken? Seriously?


I think its funny :lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:29 am 
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Notwithstanding the shopkeeper's ingenuity, they cannot start budgeting for second holidays or shop improvements until the factory picks up. The factory does not look like it will start taking on more staff and picking up production for another year or so.


In that one paragraph Willie sums up two huge problems with the current government.

1. They think that the extent of the downturn will be that it will prevent people having second holidays. Not even holidays, second holidays.

2. They reckon it will all be sorted out within a year or so. I think this year or so talk is based primarily on when the local elections are. They want to give a time line beyond then so that when they're campaigning they don't have to address economic issues. After the local elections, the predictions of recovery will again be adjusted to take us out to after the next general election.

This talk about Doom and Gloom Merchants is really starting to piss me off now. It used to be that if you said the boom could end you were a doom merchant who would cause the boom to end.

Now you're a doom merchant just for suggesting that the downturn might be more serious than forcing people to have only one holiday a year.

Will anyone in the Dail or in the media say "You know..I was wrong about the severity of this, maybe I should listen again to the people who were warning about it"

Of course not.

Ride out the storm and then when it's over, claim you were right all along.

-Rd

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:58 pm 
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The downturn is certainly not unique to us. It is worldwide -- and it is affecting everyone.

The situation with our two major trading partners -- the UK and the USA -- is particularly bleak. In fact, the fall in the value of the dollar and sterling, against the euro, has been the major factor in the erosion of Ireland's competitiveness.

In Germany, unemployment has risen and retail sales have fallen for three months in a row. In Portugal, GDP fell in two of the last three quarters. Denmark is in recession, while the property markets in both France and Spain are enduring turbulent times.


This is just hilarious. He is quite happy to point out how fucked everyone else is, and blames Ireland's problems on exchange rates?

They really must take the public for fools... or is the first muttering about leaving the euro?


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:30 pm 
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This guy is embarassing as a public figure, the people that voted him in as a TD must be very gullible. Everytime I hear him on tv its cringeworthy because he doesnt seem to have a clue. Not only that but you'd need an interpretor to understand him.
So who votes for a guy like this, anybody :?:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:35 pm 
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spqr64 wrote:
This guy is embarassing as a public figure, the people that voted him in as a TD must be very gullible. Everytime I hear him on tv its cringeworthy because he doesnt seem to have a clue. Not only that but you'd need an interpretor to understand him.
So who votes for a guy like this, anybody :?:


He's probably greate at claiming credit for medical cards and 101 other things to which people are already entitled. Parochial clientelism is the backbone of our great political system, Irish people do not elect governments, they vote for citizens advice advocates.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:35 pm 
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So who votes for a guy like this, anybody :?:[/quote]

After the shabby manner in which he dodged the Shannon airport move,none of his constituents (one would hope)


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:38 pm 
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Apparently he is good at getting 'things' done for you. If I recall correctly he would be one of the party's biggest vote winners.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:40 pm 
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So who votes for a guy like this, anybody


19,000 people apparently.

It'll be interesting to see how FF fare in upcoming elections in that part of the world. Will Shannongate be easily forgotten?

-Rd

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