http://www.galwaynews.ie/4530-city-hous ... bizarre039

Newly-released Government statistics have shown “bizarre” increases of almost 10% in house prices in Galway since the end of last year.

According to the latest Quarterly Housing Statistics from the Department of the Environment, the average price of a secondhand house in Galway in the first quarter of this year stood at €356,430, up from €324,968 (or 9.68%) in the last quarter of 2007.

They buck the trend of national figures, where the average price of a new house nationally was €311,113 in the first quarter, down by 3.1% on the average price in the same quarter in 2007. For a secondhand house, the average was €359,277 in the first quarter 2008, down by 5.4% on the previous year.

The figures have been questioned by local estate agents, one of whom described the increase as “bizarre”.

Lies, lies and damned lies I tell you.

In the current market a government report that house prices are up 10% is the worst news Galway EA's can hear.

We know that house sales are at record low numbers of transactions. The supply of housing for sale is piling up week by week. The buyers have disappeared. There is a huge amount of pent-up supply especially in Galway.

So over the next couple of years the sellers are going to have to drop their prices below what is now considered the current market value.
So if you are a seller in Galway who has heard that prices are up 10%, what are you going to tell the EA when he has an offer for your house at 25% below asking price?

Demand, pent up or otherwise, will not appear in a falling market.

A possible reason for the Galway blip may be people migrating from Dublin who have higher equity.

Surely it's more likely that with reduced sales volume that it's just that over the period better quality homes (old well located houses, nice gardens, detached, etc.) were the only ones selling.

Ouch, that is going to cause a lot of EA's a lot of pain.

So where are the 40% drops that have taken up SO much air time on this site ?

These stats clearly relect that sales volumes are very low, but prices achieved on those sold are strong.

The 40% predictions are just wild, and are maybe put out there to deliberately cause panic

That's right, you hopeless eejit, the 'pin is here to cause panic. Run, run and hide. The bears are here. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

edit: Oh, and by the way we've also done this to panic people:
- dropped the construction and construction finance heavy ISEQ by 60%
- increased the unemployment rate to 5.9% and the underemployment rate to 10%
- mind-controlled Jim Power so he thinks house prices will fall by 40% too

Of course we are all David McWilliams - you should see us when we get together with our brogs and foppy hair and button down collars.

Patience Grasshopper, the 40% happens peak to trough and we a long way from both the peak and still not at the trough.

- and Eugene Sheehy

I wonder if the Dail Eireann cabinet session involve Willie O'Dea putting on a mini skirt and shaking the pom poms shouting "Everything is wonderful, no recession" and the like.

According to an EA cited in the City Tribune, the alleged increase in prices is probably due to figures being based on bank pre-loan approvals.

Shit, we've been rumbled.

Code Blue
Code Blue

-Rd

EA giving off about the figures on the front of the city tribune.
Says the figures are plainly wrong, gives an example of three beds in knocknacarra that would have sold for 360,000 a year or 18 months ago would sell now for 310,000 or 320,000 at a push, says the eastern side of town is down by up to 50,000 in some cases as well.

Also says the department figures come from lenders based on loan approvals and so are not related to selling prices.

Galway seems to be going through a little hyperinflation of its own though. I was back down 2 weekends ago for the first time since November. In that time, a pint has gone up by about 50-60c, the cost of everything in shops seemed to have soared, everyone I know was giving out about prices rising on a daily basis. The city seems to be locked in an inflationary spiral.

I was stunned when I read that figure of 360,000 for a three bed semi in Knocknacarra. I would have thought they generally sold for up to about 325,000-335,000 a year to two years ago. I have NEVER heard of a three bed semi in Knocknacarra achieving 360,000. If ever that happened, it would have been completely exceptional, IMO.

I wonder if they would be able to shift same for even 300,000 now?