Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 24 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:29 pm 
Offline
Back Home with Mammy

Joined: Aug 16, 2006
Posts: 51
Fianna Fail have been sneaking into Government with ever decreasing votes over the last decade. The PD's are running Health and Finance yet only represent 5% of voters in Ireland.

It would be interesting to see a compulsory vote being brought in to this country to see which political party would get in. For once it may encourage new political parties to become established in order to represent the different groups out there.

Whats the point in all of this painfully obvious rambling I hear you ask?

It's simple really.

Vested interests are able to run this country with a minority of the votes.

The property market in Ireland WILL end up bankrupting this country, there can be no "soft landing". How will Ireland cope with 15 years of price drops? How will this country be run when the political parties who hold the reins of power cannot manage Health, Crime, Housing.

Consider the budgets that they have had in the last few years, yet they seem powerless even to manage traffic in Ireland.

I am amazed that the media seem to think that Biffo Cowen has a get out of jail free card with the Stamp Duty issue. I really do think that in order to become a politician in Ireland you must get a Degree of Incompetence.

The facts are simple.

This Government could do nothing to prevent the house price increases.

What makes you think that they can prevent decreases?

It will be 20 years this year since the big crash in the UK, Pundits have always commented that Ireland is 20 years behind. It looks like the predictions may be about to come true.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:59 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Nov 7, 2006
Posts: 1244
As sentiment has changed and the idea that we are not "that" different and that HPC "could" happen here, I am amazed by the number of people who when confronted with bearish arguments, counter that a property crash will bankrupt the nation and therefore it cannot happen.
People's faith in government (any government) to avert economic downturns amazes me. It makes me wonder how they accept previous recessions; do they think that the government of the day thought that it would be a good idea to have a floundering economy?

Baffled.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:11 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance
User avatar

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 7123
Location: Australia
2 years ahead of your time gentlemen.

Rooting through the old threads - crazy

_________________
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2281&p=374552&hilit=IMF+database#p374552
^^DOOM ^^


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:13 pm 
Offline
Real Estate Developer
User avatar

Joined: Apr 6, 2008
Posts: 974
Location: The Swamp
The Gubberment Would not prevent a bubble. They could have ensured proper regulation of banks, Resonable supply of zoned land, and removed incentives that encoraged speculative investment in shelter.

The muppets still belive (or spin ) that we are a small open economy and clearly not part of the eurozone.



Jim Reaper wrote:

The facts are simple.

This Government could do nothing to prevent the house price increases.


_________________
If you don't know where you are going any road will get you there.- Mark Twain


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 3:09 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 2981
Jim Reaper wrote:


This Government could do nothing to prevent the house price increases.



Not true. No bubble in Germany, mild bubble in France and Italy, and most definitely no bubble in Belgium.

The case of Belgium is instructive. Never had any property bubbles because the government deliberately makes the cost of the transaction so expensive. No flippers there.

The property crash in Ireland will not bankrupt the country. What will bankrupt the country is the refusal of the government to cut public expenditure by at least 30%. Now. For the last 5 years more than 50% of the increase of government tax receipts came directly from taxation directly related to the property bubble. Goverment expendiure rose by 10%,15%,20% p.a. as if the good time would never end. All that tax revenue is now quickly disappearing leaving a huge hole in the budget, E8 billion so far this year. Two or three years of borrowing to cover the tax hole, and without very deep cuts in government expenditure, and you are looking at a least a doubling of the national debt (in GNP terms).

It hello 1981 time again.. FF will only make the correct decision when the economy is on the verge of complete collapse, and when there is absolutely no other alternative. They have done this twice before. They have a history. Based on past form they might start seeing sense by 2012 at the earliest - but I would not bet on it.

Hang on tight. Its going to be a very bumpy and very unpleasant ride.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:52 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 8873
Location: Location, Location.
Image
http://constructireland.ie/Articles/Opi ... rvive.html


We are already bankrupt, just nobody has foreclosed on us yet!

_________________


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:14 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 7, 2007
Posts: 5669
Lucky France

Sarcozy didn't have time to Americanize their economy.

Not only could the government and I mean FF have prevented the property bubble (or at least severely limited it) but they actually did exactly the opposite. Section 23 combined with planning corruption and a complete absence of proper regulation of the banks was like heaping tyres and petrol on a bonfire.

Anyone on here who doesn't start to cop that FF over the last 8 years have in effect undid all the growth of the previous 20 and are likely to have set us back to the eighties if we're lucky and the fifties if we're not.

_________________
FF should disband


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:38 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 8873
Location: Location, Location.
ewd3 wrote:
Not only could the government and I mean FF have prevented the property bubble (or at least severely limited it) but they actually did exactly the opposite. Section 23 combined with planning corruption and a complete absence of proper regulation of the banks was like heaping tyres and petrol on a bonfire.


FF threw petrol on an already burning fire (and they deserve a good drubbing in the polls for that), their and other political parties abdication of fiscal responsibility during the boom is partly what got us here. But remember this is republic running a democratic voting system, in such a system we vote for the gombeen in a Santa Claus suit. Try telling Joe Public that you are deliberately going to stop him speculating on property and see if you get re-elected.

Quote:
The measures introduced by the government after the last Bacon Report must be abolished in the forthcoming budget, according to a number of property bodies. The consensus is that the measures have not worked and must be re-evaluated.
In its pre-budget submission the Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute (IAVI) argues that the measures have tilted the supply balance away from the private rented sector. It also says that any disincentive to investment does not affect the investor, whose capital is mobile, but tenants.
The tax has resulted in a dramatic increase in rents, a complete collapse of the holiday homes market around the seaboard, a serious threat to purpose-built student accommodation and a devastating effect on the property industry in rural areas, according to the IAVI.
>>>>

Calls for budget U-turn to redress Bacon effect
:arrow: Sunday, November 19, 2000
http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/200 ... 270138.asp


ewd3 wrote:
Anyone on here who doesn't start to cop that FF over the last 8 years have in effect undid all the growth of the previous 20 and are likely to have set us back to the eighties if we're lucky and the fifties if we're not.


Agreed, but the problem is not just FF (FG seem to have had a recent Pauline conversion, now that it suits them).
It is the bankruptcy of ideas and leadership within the Irish political system and western 'democracies' that fuels this, a politician with true courage and integrity, leadership and vision would have been able to persuade people that following the Bacon report was the best course of action.
Sadly we only get genuine leadership when our backs are against the wall and we've tried every other foolish solution beforehand.

_________________


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:45 am 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Jan 29, 2008
Posts: 3133
Location: In a greener field.
Green Bear wrote:
We are already bankrupt, just nobody has foreclosed on us yet!


And hopefully the ECB will prosecute the directors for wreckless trading.

_________________
The best way to predict your future is to create it. - Abraham Lincoln


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 4:13 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 2981
ewd3 wrote:
Lucky France

Sarcozy didn't have time to Americanize their economy.



No need to. The French government has engaged in creative accounting for the last 20 years that would put Enron to shame.

All that unfunded pension liability. Ignore it because it would double the national debt load. That 5 billion euro p.a deficit in the health services. Put it in special off balance sheet section of the national budget. The Eu rules that the railways need to be self-supporting. No problem. Put the profitable bits in once company and put the cost of building the system, more than 17 billion euro, in a separate company that is financed by low interest government backed bonds..etc etc.

The French have nothing to learn from the Americans. Except maybe customer service, transparency, and general good neighborliness.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 4:33 pm 
Offline
Real Estate Developer
User avatar

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 932
jmc wrote:
No need to. The French government has engaged in creative accounting for the last 20 years that would put Enron to shame.

All that unfunded pension liability. Ignore it because it would double the national debt load. That 5 billion euro p.a deficit in the health services. Put it in special off balance sheet section of the national budget. The Eu rules that the railways need to be self-supporting. No problem. Put the profitable bits in once company and put the cost of building the system, more than 17 billion euro, in a separate company that is financed by low interest government backed bonds..etc etc.

The French have nothing to learn from the Americans. Except maybe customer service, transparency, and general good neighborliness.


Interesting post , I can accept the German level of debt as being reasonably accurate, but the French one had me stumped. Your explanation if valid (its certainly believable) would explain it nicely.

_________________
No longer renting.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 5:38 pm 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 28577
Location: Tullamore
LTR - individually, the French are not indebted. Nationally they are with a debt:GDP ration of 64% at the end of 2007.
Eurostat PDF
The German ratio: 65%, Italy leads the pack with 104%

It seems you can either indebt your citizens or your state. Having tries the state approach, we've now tried the citizens approach. Which tastes better?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 5:43 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jun 23, 2006
Posts: 22471
Location: Over Macho Grande? I don't think I'll ever be over Macho Grande...
yoganmahew wrote:
It seems you can either indebt your citizens or your state. Having tries the state approach, we've now tried the citizens approach. Which tastes better?


Well in France, for their public debt they actually get public services that work, they've thrown alot of time and money at it though, there's no stomach for that here but maybe, if we get through to the other side of this, maybe we'll start seeing a more left leaning approach to the development of public services...

_________________
People change. Hairstyles change. Interest rates fluctuate.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 1:23 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 2981
Longtermrenter wrote:
jmc wrote:
No need to. The French government has engaged in creative accounting for the last 20 years that would put Enron to shame.

All that unfunded pension liability. Ignore it because it would double the national debt load. That 5 billion euro p.a deficit in the health services. Put it in special off balance sheet section of the national budget. The Eu rules that the railways need to be self-supporting. No problem. Put the profitable bits in once company and put the cost of building the system, more than 17 billion euro, in a separate company that is financed by low interest government backed bonds..etc etc.

The French have nothing to learn from the Americans. Except maybe customer service, transparency, and general good neighborliness.


Interesting post , I can accept the German level of debt as being reasonably accurate, but the French one had me stumped. Your explanation if valid (its certainly believable) would explain it nicely.


Soon after Sarko won the election the new Finance Minister made public what everyone had suspected for a long time, they were fiddling their books. If France used the same criteria that other EMU countries used for calculating their national debt it would around 120% plus of GNP, about double the official numbers.

The senior people in the Ministry are seriously worried about the numbers and the direction they are going, which is why they went public.


Last edited by jmc on Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:47 am, edited 2 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Irish property crash will bankrupt the nation.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 6:12 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation
User avatar

Joined: Nov 28, 2007
Posts: 1544
BrendanG wrote:
And hopefully the ECB will prosecute the directors for wreckless trading.

Yes it would be good if it were wreck-less, and I'm sure the ECB are full of hope that this will happen. :wink: db (a tad grumpy this morning)


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 24 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to: