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provost · **Joined:** Nov 22, 2007 **Posts:** 6073

a little discussed here on the "Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?" thread GB:
viewtopic.php?p=269729#p269729
the video link in this post is the same as your first.

provost wrote:

saw this on another thread:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video= ... 692&play=1

towards the end hendry argues that hyperinflation may have already happened

yoganmahew wrote:

I agree with him. We've had eight or ten years of it, depending on whether you include the dotcom buildup.

edit: I'm not sure I'd call it hyperinflation, but look at the pre-Clinton era CPI-U here http://www.shadowstats.com/

walktothewater · **Joined:** Mar 29, 2007 **Posts:** 602

I wouldn’t put too much weight on what Hendry says. He doesn’t come clean with his past performance, he’s selective and ramps his successes. Also I feel he deliberates obfuscates and complicates things for no apparent reason.

Having said that he could be right for the next few months. Over on the “cash-only property market” thread I’ve been deliberately vague in signalling ‘the Autumn’ as when I think US bond prices will fall, a lot, causing big problems, not least of all the coup de grâce for the Irish property market.

However, there’s the question of the short interim. Hendry could well be right here. US bonds look oversold and could very well stage a rally. He claims this may happen on “deflationary fears". Whatever. I’d say more due to the coming end of this equity bear rally combined with all the liquidity sloshing about. In other words, one more “flight to safety” to the USD, then the big kaput later this year.

For unsophisticated investors, and that’s most of us, this means, cash, cash, cash… in safe banks/mattresses.. and a bit of gold

Septic Crank · **Joined:** Apr 28, 2008 **Posts:** 2067

walktothewater wrote:

I wouldn’t put too much weight on what Hendry says. He doesn’t come clean with his past performance, he’s selective and ramps his successes. Also I feel he deliberates obfuscates and complicates things for no apparent reason.

I agree, in the main. He did very well up to March when he was long bonds and short equities. Then he held onto this position (at least in bonds) for a good deal of the recent humungous rally in stocks and collapse in bonds.

His weakness is that he is so convinced about his assessment of the long term outlook for various financial assets that he tends to hold on to these assessments even when the market moves very substantially against him. In short, he allows his judgement of the long term outlook to override shorter term market opportunities.

That would be fine for a University Lecturer or financial pundit, but it's no good in the hedge fund business.

yoganmahew · **Posted:** Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:54 pm

Septic Crank wrote:

walktothewater wrote:

I wouldn’t put too much weight on what Hendry says. He doesn’t come clean with his past performance, he’s selective and ramps his successes. Also I feel he deliberates obfuscates and complicates things for no apparent reason.

I agree, in the main. He did very well up to March when he was long bonds and short equities. Then he held onto this position (at least in bonds) for a good deal of the recent humungous rally in stocks and collapse in bonds.

His weakness is that he is so convinced about his assessment of the long term outlook for various financial assets that he tends to hold on to these assessments even when the market moves very substantially against him. In short, he allows his judgement of the long term outlook to override shorter term market opportunities.

That would be fine for a University Lecturer or financial pundit, but it's no good in the hedge fund business.

Yeah. Peter Schiff suffers from the same blind spot, I think.

Puck may be Famous · **Joined:** May 3, 2008 **Posts:** 2040

yoganmahew wrote:

Septic Crank wrote:

walktothewater wrote:

I wouldn’t put too much weight on what Hendry says. He doesn’t come clean with his past performance, he’s selective and ramps his successes. Also I feel he deliberates obfuscates and complicates things for no apparent reason.

I agree, in the main. He did very well up to March when he was long bonds and short equities. Then he held onto this position (at least in bonds) for a good deal of the recent humungous rally in stocks and collapse in bonds.

His weakness is that he is so convinced about his assessment of the long term outlook for various financial assets that he tends to hold on to these assessments even when the market moves very substantially against him. In short, he allows his judgement of the long term outlook to override shorter term market opportunities.

That would be fine for a University Lecturer or financial pundit, but it's no good in the hedge fund business.

Yeah. Peter Schiff suffers from the same blind spot, I think.

Peter schiff dosen't trade on leverage or advise his clients to do so either. He follows a long term buy and hold strategy focused on dividend paying non-dollar equities and precious metals.

HouseBuyer · **Joined:** Feb 8, 2007 **Posts:** 4736

Septic Crank wrote:

I agree, in the main. He did very well up to March when he was long bonds and short equities. Then he held onto this position (at least in bonds) for a good deal of the recent humungous rally in stocks and collapse in bonds.

You cannot possibly judge a hedge fund manager on his performance over a month.

Negative Covenant · **Joined:** Mar 4, 2009 **Posts:** 1049

Hugh talking on the FT website (scroll down list of websites to his appearances with Gillian Tett on 5 July 2009):

http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

What Goes Up... · **Posted:** Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:48 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/congratu ... rld-2010-8

Quote:

Hugh Hendry's Eclectica Has The Best-Performing Macro Strategy Hedge Fund In The World
Aug. 24, 2010
Gregory White

Hugh Hendry's global macro strategy macro hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management has come out number one in Bloomberg's year to date rankings of macro strategy funds, according to Zero Hedge.

The man who is now suggesting there might be a global food crisis coming as a result of Asia's growth has seen his fund return 13.55% year to date.

That beats out near competitors Aconcagua Asset Management's 11.21% return, and First Quadrant's 11.12%.

As a reminder, check out one of Hendry's greatest video hits (via @Conrad_Easby):

BoyRacer · **Joined:** Jul 26, 2009 **Posts:** 10080

hquain · **Posted:** Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:41 pm

Hugh seems very mellow.

Daniel Plainview · **Joined:** Feb 19, 2009 **Posts:** 987

One of the very top performing hedge fund managers this year - up 13% to July I believe.

TheEmigrant · **Joined:** Sep 14, 2009 **Posts:** 1392

Daniel Plainview wrote:

One of the very top performing hedge fund managers this year - up 13% to July I believe.

Um... did you read the article three posts before you?

Daniel Plainview · **Joined:** Feb 19, 2009 **Posts:** 987

TheEmigrant wrote:

Daniel Plainview wrote:

One of the very top performing hedge fund managers this year - up 13% to July I believe.

Um... did you read the article three posts before you?

just saw the video clip missed the article!

Blue Horseshoe · **Joined:** Jun 25, 2006 **Posts:** 2857

A little bit of Hugh in a mellow and reflective mood ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/h ... 017299.stm

Blue Horseshoe

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