Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 30 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: House prices keep tumbling as buyers opt to wait and see
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:07 am 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Mar 4, 2007
Posts: 7852
House prices keep tumbling as buyers opt to wait and see

Quote:
HOUSE prices are continuing to fall as far fewer people are prepared to take out crippling mortgages.


The price of second-hand homes in Dublin and the rest of the country fell significantly towards the end of the year.

A comprehensive Department of the Environment survey of mortgage lenders, covering over 20,000 loan approvals, found that the average price of a second-hand house nationally fell by 4pc in the third quarter of the year, standing at €374,392.

The average price for a new house in the Dublin area was €412,324, falling by 3.3pc in the three months.

The fall was even starker for second-hand homes in the capital, as these dropped by 10.8pc during July, August and September.

Mortgages

More than 20,200 people took out mortgages to the tune of €5bn in the third quarter.

But this represented a decrease of 18.3pc in the number and 25.9pc in the value of loans approved in the same period last year.

The falls came just before Finance Minister Brian Cowen made changes to stamp duty in his Budget in a bid to kick-start the declining market.

Any impact is not expected to be felt until the New Year after a traditionally slow period for house sales.

Worries about rising interest rates have led to many potential buyers holding off and instead adopting a "wait and see" approach.

It is expected rents will rise as greater numbers enter the rental accommodation market.

Builders had been reluctant to take on big housing schemes at a time of market uncertainty and rising interest rates.

The number of notifications to the Department of the Environment from builders signalling the start of projects is down by as much as 40pc in some commuter counties.

While fewer houses were built this year than in previous years, the Department of the Environment housing report, due to be published today, disclosed that almost 71,600 new houses and apartments were built in the 11 months to the end of November.

Affordable

Over 7,500 social and affordable houses were also finished in the first nine months of 2007, up by 29pc on last year.

Housing Minister Batt O'Keeffe said the figures showed that the housing market was evolving to "a more balanced and sustainable growth pattern, particularly with regard to house prices and mortgage lending".

He said the latest figures on house completions revealed that the house-building sector has delivered almost 1,600 new houses and apartments each week with 71,598 housing units completed by the end of November.

This was consistent with a level of housing output that was easing to a more sustainable long-term pattern as supply and demand come into better balance.

"It is generally accepted that demand for housing in the medium term is likely to be in the mid to high 60,000s," he added.



Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:10 am 
Offline
Real Estate Developer

Joined: Sep 12, 2006
Posts: 936
....and Pat McGardle of Ulster Bank tells Newstalk that these figures are misleading. The PermanentTSB report is the one to go by, he says.

He also said that he expects house prices to end 2008 largely unchanged. :evil:

_________________
"People ask now why did we not listen to the economists who warned of the housing bubble and the economic crash?...Their warnings were dressed up in such stupid, sensationalist language....In today's Sunday Business Post McWilliam's headline is "NAMA is Highway Robbery". I am just not going to read a sensationalist article like this, so I might be missing some valid points."
- Brendan Burgess, founder of AskAboutMoney.com 11/10/2009


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:39 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 8126
Pat has just elevated himself into the Dan and Austin bracket with that statement, what programme was it ???

These indicators are normally done quarterly , last time was only in November see here and here

If they felt the need to do them again , mid quarter, they must be shitting themselves in the department of finance.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:55 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jun 25, 2006
Posts: 2180
Quote:
A comprehensive Department of the Environment survey of mortgage lenders, covering over 20,000 loan approvals, found that the average price of a second-hand house nationally fell by 4pc in the third quarter of the year, standing at €374,392.


OK, just when did the DoE decide it would be a good idea to gather their own lending stats related to house prices then? Is this a first?

Presumably, figures from the Department would be considered 'Official' rather than the "mark to make belive" numbers rolled out by the PTSB report. That said, given that, globally, there is a frightening shortage of trust between the banks right now over their discolsure levels, should we really believe any of them.

Blue Horseshoe

_________________
Never underestimate the power of large groups of stupid people.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:59 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 8126
Look at my links, the DoE reports the IBF numbers which are here

http://www.ibf.ie/pdfs/IBFPwCMortgageMa ... leQ307.pdf

The DoE report not due till Feb though :shock:

_________________
New Look Daftwatch With Interactive graphs http://daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:03 pm 
Offline
Real Estate Developer

Joined: Sep 12, 2006
Posts: 936
2Pack wrote:
Pat has just elevated himself into the Dan and Austin bracket with that statement, what programme was it ???


Breakfast with Ger Gilroy/Claire Byrne. Interview was right at the end of the show.

_________________
"People ask now why did we not listen to the economists who warned of the housing bubble and the economic crash?...Their warnings were dressed up in such stupid, sensationalist language....In today's Sunday Business Post McWilliam's headline is "NAMA is Highway Robbery". I am just not going to read a sensationalist article like this, so I might be missing some valid points."
- Brendan Burgess, founder of AskAboutMoney.com 11/10/2009


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:04 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 8126
Thanks flash, I will extract "quotes" later . its like something you would expect Country Tom to come out with :(


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:10 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jun 22, 2006
Posts: 2850
Sure tis the Blarneynomics; tall financial tales told with a glint in the eye. You're not supposed to believe this stuff, its for entertainment purposes only.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:21 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Nov 9, 2007
Posts: 3415
2Pack wrote:
Thanks flash, I will extract "quotes" later . its like something you would expect Country Tom to come out with :(
McArdle threatened to walk off the programme after some comment Gilroy made. I agree with him in one thing that the DoE figures are not quite scientific but the sheer volumes involved do give them a meaning that you cannot ignore. Whereas McArdle was always the more honest of forecasters his prediction of stable house prices in 08 is just daft. However he did qualify this by saying that falls would continue in the first half but rise in the second half. He has gone down in my estimation. Has his employers leaned on him? His forecast provides a stark contrast to that of James Wrynn in today's Times.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:40 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 8126
Maybe they asked Pat something about Skyscrapers in Ballsbridge , that would be a bit close to the bone 8)

_________________
New Look Daftwatch With Interactive graphs http://daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:36 pm 
Offline
Single Home Owner

Joined: Nov 18, 2007
Posts: 161
Be it Dan McLoughlin, Pat McArdle or any other opinion maker one must read between the lines of any comments from employees of financial institutions.

From what I can see there are two markets out there for the new / nearly new (i.e. less than 5 years built) housing schemes.

1. Outside of the cities, supply greatly exceeds demand and up to
recently house prices were kept up by the combination of mortgage
lenders vieing with each other to lend and this together with builders
and estate agents spinning the line that the graph for house prices was
going only one way and that was up.

All has changed, and changed radically, buyers aware of the new and
true realities have left the market, some for the short term but many
for potentially a number of years for they will not now be under the
pressure that 'buy now or you will not be able to buy in 5 years time'

Builders of many small schemes with units unsold are now
bleeding to death, as the banks are cutting overdrafts to stem
exposure, this combined with the dramatic fall in sales on the one
hand and suppliers demaning payments the small town builders all
over the county are also experiencing the new realities.

The CSO figures last Summer calculated that 13% of the housing
stock was lying idle, add to this that the majority of the units built
since then remain unsold the senario is that wheither builders drop
prices voluntary or are forced to by their bankers or alternatively the
the liquidator is called in and does the necessary, prices are going
to experience a steeper fall in many areas than what Pat McArdle
says and this time next year the results for 2008 will bear this out.

This is the reality unless Dan and Pat and those others who reside
in the ivory towers of Bank headquarters have a new theory that
disproves the iron law of supply and demand.

_________________
Michael Moloney


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:52 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Nov 7, 2007
Posts: 4814
Michael Moloney wrote:

This is the reality unless Dan and Pat and those others who reside
in the ivory towers of Bank headquarters have a new theory that
disproves the iron law of supply and demand.


Welcome aboard counciller.

For those of us who are curious can I ask a few questions?

are you a former member of Fianna Fail?

if you are what were the circumstances of your parting of the ways?

What's your favourite colour

Manilla? brown? White? :wink:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:01 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 8126
aw bugger off ewd :(

The situation in Laois is replicated nationwide.

Dublin has a feasible commuter belt ( given its size) of 30 miles at most. This belt expanded into Northern Ireland at the top of the boom ( and into Laois) but has arguably contracted back stranding lots of speculative development in mid - outer Leinster and s Ulster with no buyers. Nor are there many on the horizon at present.

Michael is absolutely correct in what he says.

Its an awful pity all the same that Laois County Council in particular went on a mega rezoning frenzy (see here) a few years back given what was already built there. Laois was the architect of its own problems to a considerable degree.

Laois will have its ghost towns and ghost villages to manage for a long while yet. Unlike the N Shannon basin, however, Laois will not have to contemplate knocking a lot of this stock down over the next 5 years. It will eventually be brought into some use.

Any intelligent Councillor must prepare for all this .


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:17 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Nov 7, 2007
Posts: 4814
2Pack wrote:
aw bugger off ewd :(.


I'm sure counciller Moloney is well able to handle a little light hearted probing.

I am genuinely interested in the councillers former relationship with fianna fail and how it ended. I have no prior information on this other than what a quick google would bring up.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:24 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 8126
I also believe that Councillor Moloney spotted the inevitable consequences of the speculative frenzy. For having some cop on before the fact....and becuase he is posting well argued opinion.... I feel he deserves a fair hearing on this Forum just as you do ewd.

Now read this ewd willya :( and give over!

http://www.archiseek.com/content/showthread.php?t=3733

Quote:
This time it wasn't the normally pro-development Fianna Fáil councillors who took the initiative, but their Fine Gael colleagues, supported by Progressive Democrat and Sinn Féin councillors. Fianna Fáil actually opposed what it called "blanket rezonings".

The targeted villages read like a roll-call - Arles, Attanagh, Ballacolla, Ballinakill, Ballybrittas, Ballyfin, Ballylynan, Ballyroan, Borris-in-Ossory, Camross, Castletown, Clonaslee, Clough, Durrow, Emo, Errill, Killenard, Rosenallis, Shanahoe, Stradbally and Timahoe.

Cllr Michael Moloney (FF) said afterwards he feared the rezonings would conjure up a "Rochfortbridge scenario" - a reference to the Co Westmeath village that's now engulfed by suburban housing, built largely for people commuting to Dublin.

"Each village in Co Laois should have been taken on a one-by-one basis and plans drawn up in consultation with the local communities," he said. "It's just nonsense for the Fine Gael group and others to argue that developers will provide sewerage and other facilities".

There is no provision in the Midlands Regional Planning Guidelines, adopted last April, for large-scale residential development around the villages of Co Laois. Its focus is on building up the urban structure of the region in accordance with a "hierarchy" of towns.

The guidelines give precedence to the "triangular gateway" of Althlone-Mullingar-Tullamore, identified in the Government's National Spatial Strategy, while not forgetting Longford and Portlaoise. Next in line are the region's smaller towns; villages are way down the list.

The "key objective" of the guidelines is to develop a "cohesive settlement strategy" that would "prioritise the linked gateway and principal towns as the primary foci for development", consolidate the smaller towns and "support" the existing network of villages.

If development is to start from the bottom of this hierarchy, a situation never envisaged by the guidelines, it is obvious the places that really need to be built up will lose out and the settlement pattern will become even more haphazard. An Taisce, among others, has argued in favour of building up villages as a viable alternative to indiscriminate one-off housing in the countryside. But this would mean preparing detailed local plans, rather than simply zoning land in the way it has been done in Laois.


Country Tom was conspicous by his absence from the debate and him a local TD at the time. Some surprise that eh !!!! :( The antics of the PDs in assisting the rezoning of every village in Laois may have helped lose him his seat !

also read this

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=7444


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 30 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cash King, Larry and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to: