Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 10 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Option
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 11:22 am 
Offline
Old Time Landlord
User avatar

Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Posts: 393
NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/23/busin ... .html?_r=1
Quote:
November 22, 2010
In European Debt Crisis, Some Call Default Better Option
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
DUBLIN — Ireland has finally taken its medicine, accepting the financial rescue package European officials have been pushing for several weeks.

But even as Europe moved to avert this latest debt crisis, economists and policy experts are increasingly debating whether it would be better, and fairer, for the Continent’s weakest economies to default on payments to lenders.

Many experts now say that bailouts only delay the inevitable. Instead of further wounding their economies with drastic budget-slashing, the specialists assert, governments should immediately start talks with bondholders and force them to accept a loss on their investments.

The risk, of course, is an investor panic that would seize financial markets at a time when the global economy remains on tenterhooks.
>>>

_________________
PROSECUTOR: By now, there have been 34 casualties.
Elena Ceausescu says: Look, and that they are calling genocide.


Last edited by yoganmahew on Wed Nov 24, 2010 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
edited: excerpts only please.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 12:10 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Oct 3, 2008
Posts: 3450
http://www.newstalk.ie/news/8german-pm- ... tors-sh31/




http://www.newstalk.ie/news/2uk-mep-say ... endence26/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 12:37 pm 
Offline
Single Home Owner

Joined: Nov 9, 2006
Posts: 140
Location: Corkman in exile
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-2 ... -lynn.html

Quote:
It’s not too late. The request for aid may have been made. The negotiations may have started. But Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen can still refuse a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

It might sound like madness for a drowning man to refuse a lifebelt. But the decision the Irish make in the next few days will shape the future of their nation for a generation.

Ireland would be better off going bust than taking a loan. The conditions attached to a rescue aren’t worth it: Once it takes EU money, it will never get off the hook. And the Irish banks aren’t worth saving anyway. Defaulting on your debts is a far less scary prospect than usually portrayed.

The real question is whether Ireland’s politicians have the courage to take that step


Unfortunately we know the answer to that...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 12:41 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jul 6, 2006
Posts: 2021
what did morgan keely Lenny asnd cowen like being tickled and praised by their Europeam masters?

Lenny always says our European partners say this is the way to go so obviously we must then do what they say

the 2 brians without a brain appear more and more like stupid puppets with all the strings being pulled by the ECB and the irish banks

_________________
Join me and together we will rule the galaxy as father and son


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:23 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 745
Does anyone have access to the 'CMA Market Data' table showing the probability of default? It used to be free but is now password protected.

Last time I checked, the chances of Greece defaulting was north of 50%, Ireland was above 30% - but that was in late September which is a lifetime ago!

Interesting point in the NYT article about how the bigger European shareholders in the IMF include countries who are most exposed if we were to default. They want to inflict the pain on the Irish taxpayer rather than see a default that would disrupt their own banks and pension funds. Nobody has our interests at heart.

Still, it does reinforce the point Sommerville/Lucey/others have been making: the EU/ECB/IMF have reason to be terrified of us so, weird as it may seem, we have a lot of power right now. If we take their 'bailout' at high interest rates we are bunched. If we don't take it, we are bunched - but so are they.

So: ECB takes on the banks and we'll deal with the sovereign debt. Deal?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:27 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jun 5, 2008
Posts: 1499
~Delete.

Permission refused.

_________________
What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


Last edited by FAUGH45568 on Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:29 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: May 6, 2008
Posts: 3018
Location: the nearest faraway place
lord vader wrote:
the 2 brians without a brain appear more and more like stupid puppets with all the strings being pulled by the ECB and the irish banks

Sorry, can't resist!

_________________
Home is a peaceful mind.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" Mark Twain


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:51 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 745
Ixelles wrote:
Does anyone have access to the 'CMA Market Data' table showing the probability of default? It used to be free but is now password protected.

Last time I checked, the chances of Greece defaulting was north of 50%, Ireland was above 30% - but that was in late September which is a lifetime ago!

Interesting point in the NYT article about how the bigger European shareholders in the IMF include countries who are most exposed if we were to default. They want to inflict the pain on the Irish taxpayer rather than see a default that would disrupt their own banks and pension funds. Nobody has our interests at heart.

Still, it does reinforce the point Sommerville/Lucey/others have been making: the EU/ECB/IMF have reason to be terrified of us so, weird as it may seem, we have a lot of power right now. If we take their 'bailout' at high interest rates we are bunched. If we don't take it, we are bunched - but so are they.

So: ECB takes on the banks and we'll deal with the sovereign debt. Deal?


Looks like it's about 38% chance of default, if I'm reading Constantin Gurdgiev's blog post correctly
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/11/economics-231110-how-much-will.html


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 2:12 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jun 5, 2008
Posts: 1499
39.73

_________________
What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Op
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 3:15 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 745
Thanks - watching Vincent Browne's programme last night, it's a wonder it's not well above 50%


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 10 posts ] 


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to: