The second FF candidate in Dublin West, David McGuinness, got 1.47% of the vote and didn't have his expenses paid.http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm? ... 1&cons=112
Mr. Lenihan was elected with 15.12% of the vote.
While Joe Higgins made a good showing to be elected, I'd say it's between FG and Labour to lose.
As for FF, I had long thought before Mr. Lenihan's illness that there was a split pending in the party, with the urban FFers following him and the country rump being left behind. Now, there is no urban FF and no obvious alternative leader. Michael McGrath is pushing himself forward, but it is difficult to see the party surviving until he is considered leadership candidate enough.