too many rich farmers buying overprices land
time to cut there subsidies

Or people figuring land may soon be more useful than worthless paper notes.

Any farmland bought near me recently was bought by farmers who were cash rich by selling land in the boom for ridiculous prices.

Surely, this source of funds will eventually dry up?

Edit: Also how is a survey done by one EA in any way representative? Would love to know how many sales this is based on and how large the parcels were.

is agriculture not making a comeback at home?

bit of both
likely that lack of trust in banks is a reason
they wouldnt have the money in the first place if it wasnt for government handouts via CAP and road schemes

And property developers

I would have thought not much farmland changes hands in a given year.

Therefore, prices can be skewed due to fewer transactions.

The Knight Frank 2012 Agri Land Report



41% of sales completed.

The 2011 Report



32% completed.

A reasonable pick up in demand, but there are some interesting inconsistencies when you look closer at the data. Very small sample sizes, lots of noise, but definitely a pick up of sorts.

The usual line that is trotted out about commodity prices driving land prices should result in higher prices for the best arable land, and on the face of it that seems to be the case. The headline increase for Agricultural land prices in the South east is up a whopping 33%!

But look closer at the chart below.


When you exclude the distortion caused by the 2010 sale of a massive single 1220-acre block of 'Slobland' in Co. Wexford, the average price of land in the South East actually fell. More on this later.

Thats really good analysis there Coles2.

So that one massive block sale in 2010 has caused a huge distortion in the south east. Surley their 'stasticians' must be aware of this?

Thanks, GT. It's not taken into account in the Knight Frank reports as far as I can see. There seems to be a similar situation in Tipperary (quality agri land also), which I'll post a chart on later.

One thing that could really distort the numbers into the future could be an increase in mountain grazing land prices with the increase in sheep prices. A single sale of mountain grazing land would make the national numbers almost meaningless and completely distort the numbers for a whole region.

Another thing that distorts the prices is the inclusion of farmhouses and buildings. Of course nothing has changed in that regard, but I wonder if more sales are being completed now that include the big Georgian pile than might have been the case in 2010? There's a lot of noise in the numbers, but the % of completions indicated an increase in demand (I suppose).

Another thing that could be distorting the market is the CAP income support scheme that will (?) be based on the amount of land held in 2014. I don't know enough about it but no doubt someone will correct me, but as far as I'm aware this proposal is supporting agri land rents and prices in the short term, but will not do so from 2014 onwards. Anyone able to shed light on this?

Good work coles
there are some major changes coming to the dairy sector in 2015 when quotas will be abolished

The thing to remember about farmland is that thanks to coastal erosion there's going to be less and less of it in the years ahead.
Buy. Inland.

I suppose it must, but presumably if you piled up all the money spent on land over the past while it would constitute a considerable resevoir.

Could you guys please elaborate? I`m not very familiar with quotas or CAP.