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 Post subject: Endgame?
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:53 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: May 15, 2007
Posts: 717
Location: London
Greek elections, Spanish bonds over 7%, Britain lending to the max (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18448636).

The can kicking has stopped. The endgame moment has arrived.


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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:31 am 
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Plenty mroe road yet, stocks up on QE3 expectations 8DD

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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:55 am 
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Is this the second endgame thread today?

I want to play a new game


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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:50 am 
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onlyone wrote:
Is this the second endgame thread today?

I want to play a new game


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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:06 am 
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we are now relying on the greeks saving us from the enda nightmare

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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:09 am 
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All is chaos, there is no end; just for ever and ever.
This Greek guy puts it in a nice song.

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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:37 am 
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This isn't the end, it isn't even the beginning of the end, it's barely even the end of the beginning.

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Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:39 pm 
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Joined: Sep 8, 2009
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Location: North Dublin
it will be a big few weeks all the same. Greece either goes out in a blaze of glory or the rest of Europe blinks. The election just tells you whether this happens next week or in a few months, not the outcome.

If Greece goes, lots of dominoes fall:

- taboos on collapse fall away completely. New mental territory.
- big holes open up in the ECB's capital as bansk go down and the IMF's capital as previous bailout default; over and above the initial impact on banks, this will require the politicians in lots of places to show their cards and front up with more money. Gonna be tough for BRICS to support Europe when Greece stops paying interest on the last bailout. Why should people who earn $5000 in a good year subsidise white Europeans whose ancestors raped and colonised them ? Seriously ?

If Europe blinks, then the assumption will be that it all hits Germany's tab.
- German bonds will tank. That changes the game all over again. Contagion goes Teutonic.
- Brutal focus on European institutions - Barroso and the rest of the pygmies. No leadership, no real institutional strength, no character, no ideas. Reactive from start to finish. The word that comes to mind is Weimar. Draghi might be up for it but he doesn't have fiscal levers or any democratic mandate. The European parliament - dont make me laugh.

In parallel, Spain looks like it will take out the ESM whether or not Greece goes ... and best case, its existing debt goes down as its now subordinated to the ESM. That makes the hole in its banks even bigger and their illiquidity worse. ELA for Spain will be enormous - much bigger than the bailout. But if Greece goes and the ELA is never repaid there....


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 Post subject: Re: Endgame?
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:56 pm 
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Either new mental territory or a far far closer union

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