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Public Emotional response to the house market
Optimism 6%  6%  [ 4 ]
Excitement 3%  3%  [ 2 ]
Thrill 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Euphoria 3%  3%  [ 2 ]
Anxiety 14%  14%  [ 10 ]
Denial 21%  21%  [ 15 ]
Fear 6%  6%  [ 4 ]
Desperation 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Panic 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Capitulation 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Despondency 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Depression 3%  3%  [ 2 ]
Hope 20%  20%  [ 14 ]
Relief 17%  17%  [ 12 ]
Total votes : 71
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 Post subject: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:09 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010 | July 2010 | September 2010 | January 2011 | April 2011 | July 2011 | October 2011 | January 2012 | July 2012 | October 2012 | Jan 2013 | July 2013

Time to resurrect this old tradition. It appears we completely missed 2014. The old chart link is dead too, so I've added a new one. I haven't found a chart one that includes both emotions and a dead cat bounce, but the emotions experienced in a DCB are already covered in the main cycle I suppose.

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The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
Sophie Scholl


Last edited by Dubhgeannain on Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:11 pm 
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I've voted relief. Whether it will be followed by optimism or anxiety, we'll see in 2015.

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The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
Sophie Scholl


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:36 pm 
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I think Ireland needs a new cycle to cover my emotion for the last two years; Confusion !

I don't know what the fuck is happening, but it doesn't smell like a real Market to me !

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:42 pm 
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Torn between denial and euphoria and plumped for denial on the basis that 2007 is being widely accepted as 'normal'...

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:25 pm 
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fishfoodie wrote:
I think Ireland needs a new cycle to cover my emotion for the last two years; Confusion !

I don't know what the fuck is happening, but it doesn't smell like a real Market to me !


Thats the sort of talk that will end with us back in recession and house prices falling....and that my friend is in no ones interest. :)

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"In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile—and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. We owe that to ourselves and our crippled self-image as something better than a nation of panicked sheep."
—Hunter S Thompson-The Great Shark Hunt, 1979


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:36 pm 
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Completely pointless trying to shoehorn Ireland into a random picture of "emotions". We can't even agree on what the market is doing.

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:16 am 
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Depression...


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:45 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:31 am 
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Relief is the public emotion I feel right now. Ireland's cycle seems to have skipped the whole of the desperation to relief section, with all the market rigging that's been going on. What are the consequences.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:35 am 
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Looking at the statements in this post http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=806216#p806216 I predict that the recovery/2nd bubble/dead cat bounce is over as of Q2/Q3 2014 and we are now in the "Anxiety" phase


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:29 am 
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the liquidator wrote:
Relief is the public emotion I feel right now. Ireland's cycle seems to have skipped the whole of the desperation to relief section, with all the market rigging that's been going on. What are the consequences.

I suspect that the next two years will see us finding out.

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:40 pm 
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Do all these people voting Hope & Relief realize that they're saying that they're expecting a continuous series of upward trends going forward? Yet the overall sentiment of the Pin seems to expect house prices to decrease over the next year or two...

There's some cognitive dissonance afoot here.


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:56 pm 
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KAW wrote:
Do all these people voting Hope & Relief realize that they're saying that they're expecting a continuous series of upward trends going forward? Yet the overall sentiment of the Pin seems to expect house prices to decrease over the next year or two...

There's some cognitive dissonance afoot here.


If you look at the first post, those emotions can be experienced just as easily in a double dip or a dead cat bounce. The chart itself is simplistic and the emotions aren't entirely sequential IMO. I voted Relief, but that could be followed by anxiety this year or optimism if you believe Sherry Fitz's proclamation: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=63717

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The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
Sophie Scholl


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:11 pm 
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KAW wrote:
Do all these people voting Hope & Relief realize that they're saying that they're expecting a continuous series of upward trends going forward? Yet the overall sentiment of the Pin seems to expect house prices to decrease over the next year or two...

There's some cognitive dissonance afoot here.


Agreed. If the sentiments expressed in this poll reflect what will happen in the market next year expect big queues at Dublin airport!

Quote:
Last week a panel of property experts sat down with Ian Guider for the Breakfast Business 2014 Property Review. It ended with James Nugent from Lisney warning: "On the residential side, if you see the same increases that we've seen this year - go to the airport and leave the country."


http://www.newstalk.com/House-prices-fall-in-Dublin


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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:12 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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Posts: 3233
IMHO, and WRT pricing;

* Vendors will have been happy in 2014, possibly less so in 2015.

* Buyers were unhappy in 2014 and won't have too much to cheer in the first part of coming year either (I expect that will change during the summer as the true nature of the supply/demand picture becomes more transparent).

The VI's, emboldened by NAMA policy are cheerleading again, but the hype can only last so long.

Blue Horseshoe

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"Housing traditionally is not viewed as a great investment. It takes maintenance, it depreciates, it goes out of style". "So, why was it considered an investment? That was a fad. That was an idea that took hold in the early 2000's. And I don't expect it to come back. Not with the same force. So people might just decide, "I'll live in a rental." That is a very sensible thing for many people to do". Prof. Robert J.Shiller, Nobel Laureate in Economics, Feb 2013.


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