Someone who aspires to live in Orwell Park, Rathgar mentioned to me sometime ago that these houses are rarely sold and that people tend to live in them for generations.

The BBC has produced a number of excellent series on streets of houses in various parts of the UK and the generations of families that lived in them and how the streets developed. Orwell Park could be the subject of a similar series by RTE.

To me, this did not make sense. I can recall many houses on the road being sold over the years. So, ever the old to seek to go to primary sources, I decided to spend a few hours doing some analysis to examine the topic further.

I am sure that SoCoDu could do a better job than me of this.

The post is probably aimed at the more affluent and Dublin-based posters on this site as well as interested bystanders like me.

It is a very mixed road with detached and semi-detached houses, two and three storey, of mixed sizes with the older houses dating from the 1880s to the 1920s and newer houses dating from mid-1990s to 2014. The garden sizes vary substantially.

There has also been quite a bit of development on the road. There is a large undeveloped site or around one acre beside number 58 that has been the subject of a number of planning applications.

This summarises the various developments:



One side of the road the back gardens are mainly North or North West facing while on the other side they are South or South East facing.

When sold, some houses were in very good condition while others when just half-built shells in the case of one house - 28 Orwell Park (otherwise, 30/31 Orwell Park), which was bought in 2012, completed and sold in 2013 - or in very poor condition such as Lisnoe, 58 Orwell Park, Rathgar.

Unlike nearby streets such as Rathgar Road, none of the properties are protected.

So all this makes any comparison of prices for which these houses were sold inaccurate.

Also, houses sold before December 2010 would have attracted stamp duty at the older and much higher rates. So the effective cost to the buyer would be very different.

To me the road is quite narrow with a lot of traffic. But to others it clearly represents an aspiration.

However, having made all those points, I feel that the road can be used as a bell weather for property prices at the high-end. For a road with around 70 houses (excluding Orwell Banks, Orwell Park Square, and Orwell Woods – note that several houses at the start of Orwell Woods have an Orwell Park address probably because of the original houses that were demolished to build them) a surprisingly large number have been sold and continue to be sold in the last 14 years – just under a third. There are probably very few other roads in Dublin where the same proportion of houses have been sold as individual residential units in the same interval.

There is currently one house that is for sale – 12 http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochu ... -6/2817434 for auction with an estimate of €1,750,000 - and one that has sold – 14 http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochu ... -6/2799055 with an asking price of €3,750,000 -but whose price has not appeared on the price register. It will be interesting to see what these sell for.

There is the infamous Sherry Fitzgerald add from Oct 2007 (http://www.sherryfitz.ie/PDF/IT_Oct18.pdf which they really should delete from their web site) where there is one house listed on Orwell Park – number 7 – listed for auction at the now (and even then in my view) utterly extraordinary and scrotum tightening price of €6 million. This really was the last Cheynes Stokes gasp of the expiring Celtic Tiger. That price would have incurred stamp duty of €511,000. Now, this price was never achieved. But it was the aspiration of the owner and the estate agent. Some underbidder really dodged a magazine of bullets that day. The house remains unsold to this day, the owner having made several half-hearted attempts to sell over the years by trailing his asking price behind a rapidly falling market.

Bear in mind that this is one of the smaller two storey, semi-detached houses with a relatively small north-facing back garden. The house backs onto some light industrial units. The house was in very good condition, with a large wrap-around kitchen/conservatory.

That same house was for sale in July 2008 for €4.75m - http://www.independent.ie/life/home-gar ... 59255.html



The house could have been yours for €1.6 million in 2012, around when the market reached its bottom, or €1.622 million including stamp duty. The second asking price represents a drop of 75.09% from the first when you compare the stamp duty inclusive prices of €6,511,000 and €1,622,000.

If recent apparent house price increases are true, then it could sell for a higher price in the future.

DNG had an even more egregious brochure for 51,52 and 53 - http://staging.lisney.com/Files/Orwell% ... 104420.pdf. The brochure does not mention money.

On the directory http://staging.lisney.com/Files/ , the brochure is dated 28/9/2009.

To quote the gushing nonsense:



Those indeed were the days.

These three houses sold for between €6 million and €7 million each in 2007 - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/pro ... 32643.html



The most expensive asking price – I cannot find if it sold – was number 34 which had an asking price of €7.25 million in 2007:

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-24895632.html



The stamp duty on this asking price would be €624,000 giving a total cost of a massive €7,874,000.

This attempts to identify the main houses sold over the years, including their plot sizes:



In my view, the sale of number 27 for €2,150,000 in 2013 represented the best bargin of all these sales.

This summarises the details of the sales price and asking price for various houses on the road over the last 16 years:



The price register data for 51-53 is clearly an error. These three houses have not been for sale for several years.

These are extracts from relevant newspaper articles on some of the prices.

http://www.independent.ie/business/pers ... 31548.html



http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 12130.html



1 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/vi ... 01314.html



2 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 80582.html



5 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 37333.html



5 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/life/home-gar ... 59255.html



10 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 22221.html



10 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 00462.html



27 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 49147.html



41 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 21758.html



46 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/life/home-gar ... 76981.html



67 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 14338.html



68 Orwell Park

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/prop ... 36233.html

It is such a lovely road but carries too much traffic for me to think of blowing my Lotto win there

Surely some road somewhere in D4 would be more appropriate as a bell-weather of high-end property.

Great work ChickenParmentier! I wish all desirable roads had this sort of treatment. You've put down a record that will be of use to many. Thank you.

It depends. I would have thought that the embassy roads in D4 would be more indicative of madness and frenzy than the slightly more sober Orwell pk.

couldnt agree more, whats the attraction of a main road? Lovely houses but surely thats a huge negative.

Lovely piece of work. Thanks Chicken P.

Another great piece to add to your statistical analysis from a couple of weeks back.

Coincidentally (and pedantically): it's bellwether. The definition may be apropos:

A bellwether; one that leads or indicates trends. The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep. The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.

There's certainly nothing so emasculating as an Orwell Park mortgage...

Great piece to put together. Thanks. Could be a template for other roads, estates.

I drive down Orwell park alMost every day. Houses and trees I like but road noise no. I agree there has been lots of turnover in the last few years. The quiet more tucked away places in the vicinity are likely to have lower turnover in property and are the ones more likely to stay in the same family for more than one generation IMO.

Great piece of work that....and I even had to look up the recipe for a Chicken Parmentier and all

The problem with large houses is that the amount of money spent on some of them (post acquisition) is highly variable and sometimes stupendously large and then occasionally stupendously tasteful after all that money was spent...and sometimes not.

So the before/after analysis is highly subjective ( and taste is a moving concept as the 1970s should have taught us) and the value add is not linear as a consequence...just saying.

2Packs oldest ally, the Zeitgeist, can trip up the EVEN the very best..obviously not 2Pack who is a perennial and nailed up there arbiter of taste but I refer to largely similar albeit somewhat lesser beings who suddenly over Laura Ashley the puddins in a fleeting moment of absence of the sort that would not trouble 2pack.

However as the weather is promised warm for the weekend I might lend you my new octocopter drone for a proper shufty thru those open windows like.

A bit late to the party on this - I don't read this part of the forum (though I probably should)!

Great job.

This is an update on this previous post, misspelling notwithstanding. There are been some recent sales and other developments that I have included.

Number 14 was sold for a whopping €3,795,000 – the asking price - on 28/08/2014 and now appears to be being completely gutted. It appeared to be around the same size as number 58 which sold for €1,775,000 in 30/01/2013 and which itself was completely gutted. Nunber 58 had a large south-facing garden while number 14 had a north facing garden. Number 12, with a north-facing back garden, sold for €1,977,750 on 15/12/2014, more than the asking price of €1,750,000. This house needs a lot of work. Number 54 sold for €1,660,000 on 26/07/2013. This was a much larger house than number 12 with a much larger plot size – about a quarter of an acre – and a large south-facing back garden.

So prices at the high-end definitely appear to be increasing – 40% increase from the lows of 2012. Comparisons are difficult because of the variety of house sizes and types on the road.

The current prices are still nowhere the mad levels of 2006-2007. They are still at least 50% below these levels.

The development in Orwell Park Square, behind the new houses in 47-50, is continuing and are all selling in he million euro range for 4-bed semi-detached houses.

Development has finally started n the site at number 59 after 12 years from the initial planning application. Details can be seen at http://www.dublincity.ie/swiftlg/apas/r ... eTabNo=2&b.

This is for 21 units in 2 4-storey blocks – 12 x 2-bed and 1 x 3-bed apartments and 8 x 2-bed townhouses with 35 space basement car park. This will

This shows an updated view of property sales on the road:



The recorded sales for houses on the road, excluding the new houses with the exception of number 48 which was sold as a new house and then resold, are:



For a single road with 70 or so existing houses, the number of sales and redevelopments is extraordinary – over 60 sales and new developments.

Really enjoyed this post. I know Orwell Park very very well after several years of living here (just renting unfortunately).

Did you consider adding Dartry House to the mix? Ok, it's slightly off the Orwell Park and now Orwell Park Square has been built, it seems less connected to the road itself. Still, it's been sold recently and is certainly part of the 'story' of Orwell Park.

As lovely as Orwell Park is, the marketing from Estate Agents always amuses me. Perhaps this is always the case when you live somewhere - you have an insight into the area problems etc.

if you don't mind me sharing, I'd like to add some context for people who may or may not know the Road.

Good
* The trees are one of the best features and in Summer make a beautfiful sight
* The houses themselves are largely beautiful and there have been some particularly nice refurbs. I'll probably never own one but they're lovely to just look at while strolling around
* Outside rush hour, it's a very quiet and peaceful road
* Not many realise that most of the houses on the southerly side overlook the Park. I'd say every house from Orwell Bank up to Orwell Woods has a view of trees and the mountains.
* Furthermore, between the park and the back of the houses, there is a generous wooded area which acts as a buffer and while not private, access is difficult enough and provides a nice mini nature reserve
On the North side of the Road, many of the houses back onto St Lukes hospital grounds.

Bad
* There's a mini crime way plauging the area right now. I know Orwell Woods has had several burgalries since Dec 2014. Nearby Dartry and Southill (Milltown) are the same. I don't know how affected the larger Orwell Park houses are but interestingly, I spotted a few CCTV signs and have seen a few private security vans parked up.
* Traffic is a nightmare between the usual hours. Where isn't right? But O.Pk has several house renovations going on right now which means vans on both sides which means almost 1 lane of traffic
* As the OP pointed out, there's a large-ish development being built right now on the only remaining undeveloped spot. I think they're apartments and some townhouses. I'm not convinced this is a great thing but depends on the execution / design.
* The most recent built houses (Orwell Park Square) which were built on the grounds of Datry House are IMHO way too dense and clearly squeezed in. Has anyone seen the gardens? They're literally postage-stamp. Ok, so this doesn't affect the Road as such but I feel that half the houses should have been built. The site was much nicer when it was just Dartry House and the (convent?) buildings around the grounds.


Having said all that, if I won the Lotto, of course I'd like to live on Orwell Park. Perhaps Palmerston Park pips it a little in some areas but it's a fine road.

32 Orwell Park, Rathgar, Dublin 6

€3,200,000 - 4 Bed Detached House 303 sq.m. / 3,262 sq.ft. on c.0.11 Ha / 0.28 acres plot.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochu ... -6/3262949

On the side of the road with north-facing back gardens.

Still only asking 44% of what the neighbouring house in number 34, which is very roughly comparable, was asking (but never sold) in Sept 2007 - €7,250,000 when the 9% marginal stamp duty rate applied.

84% of the price number 14 got in Aug 2014 - €3,795,000 - also on the north side of the road. This was bought by one of the Car Trawler web site owners and was subsequently gutted.

All things considered, 14 actually didn't seem to "need" anything at the time, seemed to be in good condition with good original features - especially all the lovely wood work. The works seemed to have been completed in a short period of time (just a few months), compared to the 2+ years spent renovating similar houses on the likes of Shrewsbury Road, hence I imagine the work was mostly cosmetic to suit the new owner's tastes. 14 is often considered the best house on the road and the market was stronger then than now - I can't see 32 achieving €3.2m.