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Public Emotional response to the house market
Poll ended at Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:29 am
Optimism 8%  8%  [ 5 ]
Excitement 8%  8%  [ 5 ]
Thrill 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Euphoria 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Anxiety 22%  22%  [ 14 ]
Denial 24%  24%  [ 15 ]
Fear 10%  10%  [ 6 ]
Desperation 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Panic 2%  2%  [ 1 ]
Capitulation 2%  2%  [ 1 ]
Despondency 6%  6%  [ 4 ]
Depression 5%  5%  [ 3 ]
Hope 5%  5%  [ 3 ]
Relief 10%  10%  [ 6 ]
Total votes : 63
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 Post subject: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotion
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:29 am 
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Previous polls linked at this post:
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=806172#p806172

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:48 am 
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Too Big to Fail

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Posts: 4199
Where's the DCB option?
Even if you take last year as a "new bubble" rather than a DCB, we never really got to "thrill", let alone "euphoria". There was desperation, panic and capitulation though and from buyers.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:57 am 
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gaius wrote:
Where's the DCB option?
Even if you take last year as a "new bubble" rather than a DCB, we never really got to "thrill", let alone "euphoria". There was desperation, panic and capitulation though and from buyers.


Same graph used as previous poll which I suppose at least makes it more directly comparable.
A DCB is fundamentally just a cycle, albeit one with lower amplitude than the preceding one.
I think the graph above works OK if it is used to just pick a tangent to the curve for where you think house prices have been and are going to go ignoring the relative amplitudes of the parts of the curve.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:00 am 
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johnp002 wrote:

A DCB is fundamentally just a cycle, albeit one with lower amplitude than the preceding one.
I think the graph above works OK if it is used to just pick a tangent to the curve for where you think house prices have been and are going to go ignoring the relative amplitudes of the parts of the curve.


exactly. Same principle applies, the top of the market would be the top of the DCB


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:02 am 
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I've said it before, but I think it's pretty clear that one lesson from our boom and bust is that the 'market cycle of emotion' is a great idea that does not necessarily correspond to the real world.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:11 am 
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Voted anxiety.

We are just past the top of last 2 years imho.

I'm really seeing a slow down locally.

When I was buying just over 2 years ago - there were 5 - 10 sale agreeds every 10 days - 2 weeks.

There's been about 3 in the last month now.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:13 am 
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I'm "anxiety" as well. Definitely a whiff of concern from some VIs and bulls in the last few weeks.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:15 am 
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Feels like something is stirring out there alright

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:20 am 
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We're an island
Just not Tropical
Too often topical,
not sunscreen I mean.
Things are getting lean?
WTF do you mean?
Does a bear shit in the woods
No he values the goods
When others have devoured.
Their children turned sour.
But we've a bender on a gender
You mean the agendar is to bendar.
So the prices will tumble like dices?
Roll on, the property crisis.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:54 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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Denial for me - even CSO data showing drops is still being skewed by the media to re-enforce the property up up up narrative.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 11:55 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Nov 26, 2014
Posts: 111
Looking at the 'most favoured response' for each of the quarters surveyed we get the following:

Sept 07 Denial
Jan 08 Fear
April 08 Denial
July 08 Fear
Sept 08 Fear
Jun 09 Fear
April 09 Fear
July 09 Fear
Sept 09 Fear
Jan 10 Fear
April 10 Fear
July 10 Fear
Sept 10 Fear
Jan 11 Fear
April 11 Fear
July 11 Fear
Oct 11 Fear
Jan 12 Capitulation
July 12 Capitulation
Oct 12 Capitulation
July 13 Hope

Not too far behind actual events


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:13 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Feb 6, 2007
Posts: 4199
johnp002 wrote:
gaius wrote:
Where's the DCB option?
Even if you take last year as a "new bubble" rather than a DCB, we never really got to "thrill", let alone "euphoria". There was desperation, panic and capitulation though and from buyers.


Same graph used as previous poll which I suppose at least makes it more directly comparable.
A DCB is fundamentally just a cycle, albeit one with lower amplitude than the preceding one.
I think the graph above works OK if it is used to just pick a tangent to the curve for where you think house prices have been and are going to go ignoring the relative amplitudes of the parts of the curve.

Ah I'm just making the point that the last few years have been trés weird.

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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:27 pm 
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Lack of bids at auction was one of the first signs of the last bubble imploding.

Currently:
Anxiety/Denial up to 57% from 35% in the Q1 survey.
Hope relief down to 16% from 37% in Q1.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:46 pm 
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Joined: May 13, 2008
Posts: 11509
Location: Somewhere up in the hills
Interesting graph Johnp002.


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 Post subject: Re: Q2 2015: Survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotio
PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:00 pm 
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Joined: Oct 11, 2012
Posts: 671
What's the equivalent of a dead cat bounce on the way up? My money is on the recent (very small) declines being temporary, prior to further increases of at least 5% pa (in Dublin) for the coming couple of years.

(What's my evidence? I think you'll find a very strong correlation between economic growth, population growth, employment growth, and restricted supply on the one hand, and house price appreciation on the other. I think these factors will outweigh the new CB lending rules, and the lag in wage growth matching economic growth.)


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