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 Post subject: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:40 am 
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We have chronic homelessness because we want it.

The only way to reduce homelessness is to create more accommodation at lower prices. But the law of supply and demand says you can't do that without lowering the value of all the existing accommodation. All the land hoarders speculating on future prices, and all the people who squeezed onto the property ladder in the madness of the last 20 years, have a vested interest in keeping prices high. If prices go down they are somewhere between losing the nice little nest egg they've accumulated (if they bought 20+ years ago) and losing their shirt (if they are still trying to climb out of negative equity).

All of these people will say they only want to be treated fairly. But there's no getting away from the fact that "fair" treatment for them means massive rents for others and a whole lot of people have to go without accommodation at all.

When will this change? When more people -- or rather more people who vote -- are being screwed by the system than are benefitting from it. (I count the people in NE as benefitting from the system, as without current high prices they'd be even worse off).

In that light, you can see most government house building efforts as a cynical divide and conquer tactic. If you give people social housing you take them out of the equation -- they're alright Jack, and are no longer lost votes. Then limit the affordable housing to people satisying income criteria. More people peeled off. All you have to do is keep the size of the screwed middle below the critical vote-losing mass. By having two artificially separated housing markets the "haves" keep their expensive property, the "have-nots" are bought off. (You also cripple social mobility, but that's a small price to pay so that the "haves" keep on having).

The government are running scared in case they've let the screwed middle grow too large. That's why there's suddenly money for social and affordable housing. But there are probably better ways to cure the housing crisis. Some of them have been discussed on this forum. Will the government ever adopt them? Not on your nelly. It would be political suicide. Because we want homelessness. We don't think we do. We certainly don't say we do. But we do.

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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:38 am 
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Fully agree. The same attitude that in the 1840's saw famine as an opportunity to make money from selling food to starving people at inflated prices has emerged again. The direct line from that landed merchant class can be traced through the current government.

Just like in the 19th century the policy now is set from the top and the people establish the culture. The 'Republic of Opportunity' makes the weak and poor an opportunity to exploit.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:15 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
The only way to reduce homelessness is to create more accommodation at lower prices

Like the only way to reduce traffic congestion is to build more roads?

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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:22 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
We have chronic homelessness because we want it.

The only way to reduce homelessness is to create more accommodation at lower prices. But the law of supply and demand says you can't do that without lowering the value of all the existing accommodation. All the land hoarders speculating on future prices, and all the people who squeezed onto the property ladder in the madness of the last 20 years, have a vested interest in keeping prices high. If prices go down they are somewhere between losing the nice little nest egg they've accumulated (if they bought 20+ years ago) and losing their shirt (if they are still trying to climb out of negative equity).



I have 6 social welfare applicants for 2 properties currently for rent.
None are Irish.
We're importing our housing crisis.

If you tackle the demand, you'll solve the 'crisis' much faster.

From 2011:

Quote:
MORE than half of the applicants for council homes in north Dublin are from abroad, new figures show.


http://www.herald.ie/news/over-half-on-housing-list-are-foreign-27973856.html

Haven't seen any updated stats published since 2011.
My guess is it's more now.
Having a reasonably small population, it doesn't take much outside influence to stress the domestic figures.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:34 am 
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Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1648
ps200306 wrote:
We have chronic homelessness because we want it.

The only way to reduce homelessness is to create more accommodation at lower prices. But the law of supply and demand says you can't do that without lowering the value of all the existing accommodation. All the land hoarders speculating on future prices, and all the people who squeezed onto the property ladder in the madness of the last 20 years, have a vested interest in keeping prices high. If prices go down they are somewhere between losing the nice little nest egg they've accumulated (if they bought 20+ years ago) and losing their shirt (if they are still trying to climb out of negative equity).

All of these people will say they only want to be treated fairly. But there's no getting away from the fact that "fair" treatment for them means massive rents for others and a whole lot of people have to go without accommodation at all.

When will this change? When more people -- or rather more people who vote -- are being screwed by the system than are benefitting from it. (I count the people in NE as benefitting from the system, as without current high prices they'd be even worse off).

In that light, you can see most government house building efforts as a cynical divide and conquer tactic. If you give people social housing you take them out of the equation -- they're alright Jack, and are no longer lost votes. Then limit the affordable housing to people satisying income criteria. More people peeled off. All you have to do is keep the size of the screwed middle below the critical vote-losing mass. By having two artificially separated housing markets the "haves" keep their expensive property, the "have-nots" are bought off. (You also cripple social mobility, but that's a small price to pay so that the "haves" keep on having).

The government are running scared in case they've let the screwed middle grow too large. That's why there's suddenly money for social and affordable housing. But there are probably better ways to cure the housing crisis. Some of them have been discussed on this forum. Will the government ever adopt them? Not on your nelly. It would be political suicide. Because we want homelessness. We don't think we do. We certainly don't say we do. But we do.


A very good point. There is more angst in Dublin about building large buildings than attempting to address homeless families
Squeezing supply has been the FG wheeze since the crash to raise house prices.
Its a political calculation. There is more votes in those who work and are in negative equity and the 'squeezed middle' than any homeless cohort.

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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:47 am 
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mr_anderson wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
We have chronic homelessness because we want it.

The only way to reduce homelessness is to create more accommodation at lower prices. But the law of supply and demand says you can't do that without lowering the value of all the existing accommodation. All the land hoarders speculating on future prices, and all the people who squeezed onto the property ladder in the madness of the last 20 years, have a vested interest in keeping prices high. If prices go down they are somewhere between losing the nice little nest egg they've accumulated (if they bought 20+ years ago) and losing their shirt (if they are still trying to climb out of negative equity).



I have 6 social welfare applicants for 2 properties currently for rent.
None are Irish.
We're importing our housing crisis.

If you tackle the demand, you'll solve the 'crisis' much faster.


Ithink you are ignoring the main point
however
Belgium and other EU countries send back EU social welfarerecipients, id be in favour of that.
Non nationals usually have a much higher labour force participation though.

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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:10 am 
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Migrant

Joined: Oct 11, 2017
Posts: 4
werpen wrote:
Its a political calculation.
It's an economic and financial calculation too...........emptying ordinary people's pockets to line those of the establishment.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:21 am 
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werpen wrote:

Non nationals usually have a much higher labour force participation though.


Absolutely.
As an economic migrant myself before, I've been there.
But Ireland doesn't have the economic or population depth to sustain welfare tourism.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:31 am 
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Migrant

Joined: Oct 11, 2017
Posts: 4
mr_anderson wrote:
werpen wrote:

Non nationals usually have a much higher labour force participation though.


Absolutely.
As an economic migrant myself before, I've been there.
But Ireland doesn't have the economic or population depth to sustain welfare tourism.
Agreed.

But what are the reasons that the Irish authorities facilitate welfare tourism?


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:38 am 
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Salamander wrote:
mr_anderson wrote:
werpen wrote:

Non nationals usually have a much higher labour force participation though.


Absolutely.
As an economic migrant myself before, I've been there.
But Ireland doesn't have the economic or population depth to sustain welfare tourism.
Agreed.

But what are the reasons that the Irish authorities facilitate welfare tourism?


And there's the question.

Germany also blocks welfare tourism.

The ruling followed a string of verdicts which have negatively affected the rights of unemployed EU citizens living abroad.

Quote:
In December 2015, the German social court ruled that EU citizens would have to wait six months before they were entitled to receive jobless benefits.

And Labour Minister Andrea Nahles of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has said that she wants to toughen the law even further, Die Welt reports.

“It isn't right that someone only needs to move inside the EU and then have access to another country's welfare system despite having a functioning one in their own country,” she said.


https://www.thelocal.de/20160225/germany-can-withhold-welfare-from-foreigners-eu-court

We simply cannot afford it, both in terms of money and resources.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:40 am 
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Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3069
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
Salamander wrote:
Agreed.
But what are the reasons that the Irish authorities facilitate it?

'Ireland of the welcomes' image to uphold
Not to be perceived as racist
Fear of the media/SJW/left-wing brigade
To make rich richer
- cheaper labour for businesses
- more people seeking rentals
etc.

Any politician speaking on the issue is automatically castigated. Why are FG/FF politicians silent on the fact that so many Irish people are homeless yet we can find accommodation for asylum seekers.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:15 am 
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Joined: Jun 10, 2010
Posts: 855
conork wrote:
Open Window wrote:
conork wrote:
Jeez, what is it, house prices going up or down is a good or bad thing. Government has thrown the sink at the situation and now people complain.
Price is irrelevant when there is virtually no supply.
Supply/demand create the price.
The crisis is intentional.

Agreed ps200306, I've mentioned this a few times. But immigration will have 2 effects - it will push up house prices but also reduce Ireland's government dept/person. The problem with letting sponges in is they are a liability to government - they increase the debt/person.
Ireland should welcome those willing to work, a supply demand effect will reduce labour costs. Less strain on government will allow resources to be directed to house building.

It's all about running a lean ship. Ireland is a business. Create an efficient business and those working in it will be rewarded handsomely.

Remember, the private sector debt was transferred to the government's balance sheet, it is now been sold back of to the private sector, the debt needs to be repaid one way or another. High house prices means the youth will be strapped with more debt to pay of government debt.

It all comes back to big inefficient government & allowing the banks losses to be socialised.

Gotta love socialism.

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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:01 am 
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Salamander wrote:
emptying ordinary people's pockets to line those of the establishment.

We'd first need to agree on a definition of an "ordinary person". I believe there are many, many "ordinary people" who already have homes/mortgages and are more than happy to see prices continue to rise.

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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:50 am 
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Joined: Jan 4, 2012
Posts: 565
outspann wrote:
Salamander wrote:
emptying ordinary people's pockets to line those of the establishment.

We'd first need to agree on a definition of an "ordinary person". I believe there are many, many "ordinary people" who already have homes/mortgages and are more than happy to see prices continue to rise.


A group being happy to see price rises and price rises being in the interests of the group are two different things.
If you are living in a house an increase or decrease in the paper value of it has no immediate impact on your economic position.

It can become a factor if you decide to borrow against the equity. Either price rises will continue indefinitely or this is borrowing against the equity of an essential asset that has a cyclical value which is by definition a bad idea.

It also becomes a factor if you have children who eventually want to leave and set up home for themselves. If house prices have risen faster than wages during the time since the parents set up home then these children are in a situation where they need to borrow more for longer than their parents did. Parents borrowing equity out of their home to supplement this is not an advantage over the situation where house prices had remained stable relative to wages during that time period.

So, in a situation where house prices rise faster than wages typically both the original and the next generation of the home-owning families find themselves in more debt than they would if house prices were stable relative to wages.

This article is one ex-politicians take on the phenomenon:
Quote:
Soaring house prices 'will kill off middle class within 30 years': Britain to be left with 'tiny elite and sprawling proletariat'
More...


Lots of people, who did not understand the macro-economics, were probably quite happy at the notion of being paper millionaires during the house price boom of the last decade but either they "took advantage" of this by borrowing against equity and subsequently saw that equity reduced or they didn't borrow against it and had no major effects from this increase in the value of their property.
I'm sure both groups would happily have foregone the price increases if it meant they could avoid the consequences in terms of USC, increased banking and interest charges, increased government borrowing etc.. that followed.


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 Post subject: Re: We WANT homelessness
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:31 am 
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Ronan Lyons made this exact point this morning.

Homeowners don't want more housing as it will reduce their property value. That's why we have the politicians we vote for.
It's the homeowners that are the cartel, the vested interest influencing Govt decisions

Homeowners vote, and homeowners like high house prices - IT Feb 2016
“There’s often a tradition in Anglo-Saxon countries of limiting supply to drive up house prices, because homeowners vote, and homeowners like high house prices,” Lyons says.
“You will hear people saying, ‘I’d love it if my children were able to afford to live near me,’ but they actually wouldn’t if it meant their own houses were worth 30% or 40% less.”


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