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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:06 am 
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WTI above $70 for the first time since November 2014.

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 Post subject: Australians didn't give a XXXX about reserves.
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 2:55 pm 
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If there was ever a disruption to global supplies, Australia could be one of the first countries affected.
Quote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-44027042
The Australian government has ordered a review of fuel security after experts warned the country only has weeks of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel supplies left in its reserves.

The country's energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, said it was the "prudent and proper thing to do" but should not be interpreted as Australia having a fuel security problem.

The International Energy Agency expects countries to have 90-days worth of fuel in reserve, but Australia has not met those levels since 2012.

If there was ever a disruption to global supplied, Australia could be one of the first countries affected.

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 11:01 am 
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Brent Crude at $80 a barrel now as Total are 'having to' withdraw from Iran. It was just under $50 last summer.


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:31 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
Brent Crude at $80 a barrel now as Total are 'having to' withdraw from Iran. It was just under $50 last summer.



Going to be interesting to see how quickly the frackers in America can start churning the stuff out again.
Many shut when prices dipped. No prospecting necessary as the wells are already identified.
They must be toasting Trump.
Life is full of 'coincidences'.


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:16 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
Brent Crude at $80 a barrel now as Total are 'having to' withdraw from Iran. It was just under $50 last summer.



Going to be interesting to see how quickly the frackers in America can start churning the stuff out again.
Many shut when prices dipped. No prospecting necessary as the wells are already identified.
They must be toasting Trump.
Life is full of 'coincidences'.

Apparently, there are still a large number of DUCs (drilled & incomplete) wells that could be brought online very quickly.

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"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:42 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
Brent Crude at $80 a barrel now as Total are 'having to' withdraw from Iran. It was just under $50 last summer.



Going to be interesting to see how quickly the frackers in America can start churning the stuff out again.
Many shut when prices dipped. No prospecting necessary as the wells are already identified.
They must be toasting Trump.
Life is full of 'coincidences'.


How do they say spasiba in Texas, gracias maybe

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 4:36 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
Brent Crude at $80 a barrel now as Total are 'having to' withdraw from Iran. It was just under $50 last summer.



Going to be interesting to see how quickly the frackers in America can start churning the stuff out again.
Many shut when prices dipped. No prospecting necessary as the wells are already identified.
They must be toasting Trump.
Life is full of 'coincidences'.

i dont think they ever stopped
They just dramatically reduced costs
Costs are below conventional oil in many cases but it is field dependant
I posted about it a few months back

Canadian Oil sands do need high prices

High oil prices are a real boon for Electric cars

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Surprise surprise. Neither US shale nor Tesla can save us from the last four years of under-investment in oil.

FT wrote:
Era of ‘lower for longer’ oil prices is dead

When oil collapsed in 2014 under the weight of US shale production, it ushered in a new-found belief that prices would remain “lower for longer”. The rampant new source of crude supplies was seen to be capable of meeting rising world demand almost single-handedly, obviating the need for extra Opec barrels ever again. As such, the concept of a “shale price band” emerged of roughly $40 to $55 per barrel, reflecting the range within which the majority of US shale producers could turn a profit without the risk of the industry growing so fast that it would again flood the market. And for the better part of three years, from 2015 to 2017, oil prices traded in this range.

But in 2018, this narrative has been slowly picked apart and is now in the process of disintegrating. While there has been breathless attention paid to prompt Brent prices climbing to $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014, what has received less attention is that the entire Brent forward curve is now trading above $60, including contracts for delivery as far out as December 2024. This development is an important psychological milestone for the oil market. The market is, in effect, saying that “lower for longer” is dead.

The reality is that US shale has been unable to meet rising global oil demand, which has averaged 1.7m b/d per year since 2014 — double the level at the start of this decade — and inventories have drawn down as a consequence, eliminating the buffer that had been built up. This inventory fall has been helped by strong demand growth and the Opec/non-Opec deal to curtail output since January 2017, which has since been superseded by rapid declines in Venezuelan and Angolan production and, more recently, non-Opec production outside of the US. The inevitable supply deficit is very worrying, with very limited spare production capacity available globally. Though we have always seen shale as a part of the supply mix needed to meet future demand growth, the industry is only just waking up to this reality.

Two main themes are now starting to impact investor thinking and drive the new-found interest in exposure to energy. First, recent supply data are finally reflecting the ill effects from under-investment due to the collapse in capital expenditure since 2015. The data are now showing accelerating decline rates across important suppliers such as Brazil, Norway and Angola. Second, the impressive strength in demand has been overshadowed in the past two years by the narrative dominated by electric cars.

But slowly this has given way to a recognition that while electric cars will undoubtedly alter the trajectory for global oil demand in the long term, this trend will not reach critical mass in the medium term (the next five years) to sufficiently make up for the expected fall in oil supplies due to the lack of investment. Here, the inauspicious launch of Tesla’s Model 3 is an important catalyst in the shift in sentiment. And while Tesla is not the only electric car manufacturer, its difficulties have dented investors’ blind faith in the ability of the sector to deliver.

So, even though expectations are for oil demand growth to slow from current levels, consumption will still be robust enough that — barring a major recession — the market will need new supplies to meet that growth. The physical oil market is only going to face greater strain ahead of the marine fuel specification change in 2020, which is set to boost demand for products such as diesel and ultra-low sulphur fuel oil by 2m to 3m b/d. As a result, we believe that oil prices may spike to above $100 per barrel, a price forecast we have held for the latter half of 2019 for three years now

The shale price band has been decisively broken and 2018 will be a watershed year: the market will realise that US shale alone cannot meet the world’s incremental demand growth and future prices must rise to re-incentivise long-cycle investments (or curtail demand).

More...

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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 1:07 am 
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prices getting expensive down under too, well relatively, saw diesel for 162.9 aud, petrol around 139.9 (this was in the 150s a couple of weeks ago).

People will move to electric eventually. The revenues lost in fuel excise world wide will be replaced one way or another.


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 7:52 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
prices getting expensive down under too, well relatively, saw diesel for 162.9 aud, petrol around 139.9 (this was in the 150s a couple of weeks ago).

People will move to electric eventually. The revenues lost in fuel excise world wide will be replaced one way or another.

Petrol here has gone over €1.40 a litre diesel is around €1.30.

Don't be surprised to see "road pricing" schemes potting up all over the place to replace revenue.

Anyway, they can't really tax electricity as it is used for essential domestic uses as well as for potentially charging vehicle, plus some will use micro-generation to assist in the charging.

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"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 12:47 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
...Anyway, they can't really tax electricity as it is used for essential domestic uses as well as for potentially charging vehicle, plus some will use micro-generation to assist in the charging.


They already do, twice! Vat and PSO levy.

How about an EV levy. Match the MPRN address to the car registration address (Eircodes?) With smart metering, assuming majority of recharging overnight, and storage heating dying out it's not the worst correlation.


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 1:11 pm 
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owenm wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
...Anyway, they can't really tax electricity as it is used for essential domestic uses as well as for potentially charging vehicle, plus some will use micro-generation to assist in the charging.


They already do, twice! Vat and PSO levy.

How about an EV levy. Match the MPRN address to the car registration address (Eircodes?) With smart metering, assuming majority of recharging overnight, and storage heating dying out it's not the worst correlation.


Why not dye the electricity a different colour depending on whether it's going to a domestic source or to a car charging unit? Then we could have an enterprising secondary business taking the colour out of electricity and selling it out of sheds. This could easily be done by using different wiring on car chargers and domestic appliances - swap the blue and brown wires on the charges - domestic electricity would be brown and blue and car electricity would be blow and brown.


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 1:34 pm 
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metalmike wrote:
owenm wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
...Anyway, they can't really tax electricity as it is used for essential domestic uses as well as for potentially charging vehicle, plus some will use micro-generation to assist in the charging.


They already do, twice! Vat and PSO levy.

How about an EV levy. Match the MPRN address to the car registration address (Eircodes?) With smart metering, assuming majority of recharging overnight, and storage heating dying out it's not the worst correlation.


Why not dye the electricity a different colour depending on whether it's going to a domestic source or to a car charging unit? Then we could have an enterprising secondary business taking the colour out of electricity and selling it out of sheds. This could easily be done by using different wiring on car chargers and domestic appliances - swap the blue and brown wires on the charges - domestic electricity would be brown and blue and car electricity would be blow and brown.



No need to change the colour of the wires, if anyone used the dyed electricity for say lighting in their house the light would come out that colour - very easy to see whose cheating... ditto for washing machines and tumble dryers - the clothes will come out that colour. We don't realise how lucky we are to have such a clean supply all these years....


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 5:54 pm 
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Always remember that old energy saving tip of having bulbs in all light fittings to stop the electricity from leaking out!

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"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: 'Peak Oil' far, far away
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 5:56 pm 
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owenm wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
...Anyway, they can't really tax electricity as it is used for essential domestic uses as well as for potentially charging vehicle, plus some will use micro-generation to assist in the charging.


They already do, twice! Vat and PSO levy.


I was thinking of them adding tax for vehicle charging, unless they forced people to have separate meters it wouldn't be workable and not for those who have solar panels.

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"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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