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 Post subject: Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics
PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:00 pm 
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Just looking at the PPR can give you an idea of the number of houses that were completed and that people wanted to buy -

2015 - 6041
2016 - 6649
2017 (so far) - 7369

These don't include social housing and probably a minority of other things (self builds etc) but the figures look much more like they would beef up to 7500 for 2016 than 15000

This year is running ahead of last year and I was looking at Dublin figures last week - there were just under 3000 new sales in Dublin last year - looks like there will be 1000 more this year.

This tallies with what a retired EA told me at the end of the summer - he said the company he used to work for has sold more new builds in Dublin than ever before. He also said that he felt builders were over-pricing new builds. Apparently they have a sneaky strategy - say they have a small development of half-a-dozen houses - they set a suitably high price and mark one as sale agreed - this is supposed to increases demand on the others - he doubted that it was working. I have noticed a lot of new builds round SCD that have sat on the market for a while.


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 Post subject: Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics
PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:28 am 
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Posts: 2006
The assumption about self-builds seems low.

Since 2015 there have been about 1000 planning permissions per quarter granted for one offs according to the CSO.

Granted not all will be built but it should still get you at least 3,000 per year.


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 Post subject: Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics
PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:36 pm 
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House completions are proxied off ESB connections since 2013 and are notified monthly by the ESB to the Dep of Environment aka Housing.

Completions were based on council data before that, which was crap especially for one offs.

Census 2011 found over 40,000 inhabitable properties during the fieldwork that were not officially known to be complete by any other metric.

Census 2016 found thousands of one offs, the Ordnance Survey has not even mapped them yet and they have no eircodes, most of them,

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 Post subject: Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:17 am 
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Missing the Target, - Rory Hearne
Quote:
Not one affordable home was built in 2017 and the government did not meet its new social house building targets as the homelessness and housing crisis continues to worsen.

That is what the headlines on news articles covering the Minister for Housing’s ‘Social Housing Delivery 2017’ statement released this week should have read. Instead we had articles like this one from RTE stating that “Department of Housing figures show social housing delivery exceeded”.

Again it’s a case of manipulation of figures, spin, and half-truths being put out by Government Departments and Ministers that were left largely unchallenged by the mainstream media.

The reality is the homelessness crisis is worsening. Just in the last year the number of homeless families has increased by 26% (from 1,205 in Nov 2016 to 1530 in Nov 2017) and the number of children homeless increased by 30% (2549 to 3333).

On this government’s watch, an additional 784 children, or two children a day, became homeless into emergency accommodation the last year.

The number becoming homeless was even larger (Focus Ireland figures show 85 families newly homeless in Dublin alone in November 2017, or over two families a day).

Why will the government not declare this human catastrophe a national emergency and give it the political attention it requires?

The housing crisis also includes low and middle income households in the private rental sector who continue to be affected by rents at ever more unaffordable levels and they face the constant threat of losing their home by being evicted by their landlord.


Quote:
Meanwhile in this Republic of obfuscation, the government claims that it met the social housing need of 25,892 households in 2017 and “exceeded its overall target for new social housing supports”.

This gives the impression it provided a significant new supply of housing. But the overwhelming majority of these, 73% (18,900) are where low income households in the private rental sector are given housing support.

This is not new supply – it is using existing housing stock in the private rental sector – and so making the crisis worse by adding to demand in the private rental sector. Neither is it social housing as we would understand it – a secure home.

Landlords can evict these tenants easily as they can others in the private rental sector. It is also very poor long term value for money as it is a huge corporate welfare transfer to landlords –almost €500 million per year to some of the wealthiest in society for which the state gets no long term return.

So if we take away the housing provided under HAP, RAS and leasing from the private sector that leaves 6,268 new social housing units. Now, that is still not new build social or affordable housing supply, 1757 of this is existing local authority housing being refurbished (referred to as ‘voids’) and 2,266 is acquisitions, or purchases from the private market, again, not new build supply.

That leaves, just 2245, of which 388 is bought from private developers in Part V. This means that in 2017 the total actual new build social housing was just 1,857 (1,058 by local authorities and 799 by housing associations).

Therefore, of the new social housing trumpeted by the government in their statement this week, just 7% is actually new build social housing. At that rate of building it would take over 50 years to meet the housing needs of those on social housing waiting lists.

The facts are that the new build of 1,857 (or, 2,245 if you include Part V units) doesn’t even meet the government’s own housing plan Rebuilding Ireland targets – set out in July 2016.

The tables below shows that the new build targets for 2017 were 3,200. So the actual new build is just over half the Rebuilding Ireland targets.

Loads more! Worth reading.


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 Post subject: Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:06 am 
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Of Systemic Importance
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Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 5061
CSO develops new measure of housebuilding activity

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3523058

Quote:
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has developed a new measure of housebuilding activity on foot of the controversy surrounding the Government’s figures.

The agency’s “New Dwelling Completions” series, which will be launched next week, aims to give an accurate picture of the number of new homes being built in the State.

The series, which will be produced on a quarterly basis and date back to 2011, will utilise the Department of Housing’s official numbers, which are based on electricity connections.

However, it will adjust these figures with stamp duty and Building Energy Ratings (BER) data along with information from the latest population census and the GeoDirectory property database.


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 Post subject: Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:17 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance
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Posts: 5061
New Dwelling Completions Q1 2018

New quarterly CSO release out today
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... onsq12018/

Infographic
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... fographic/

Press release
https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre ... mpletions/

I'll post a table later


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