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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:39 pm 
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catbear wrote:
Epicurus wrote:

That's not to say there aren't places in England that are tinder boxes. But these could rear up any time. Like London in 2011 or Paris in 2005.

There's a good portion of north England towns and cities that are volatile. When moving over I had no conception of the scale of the poverty in large swaths. It's ripe ground for discontent.


Plus 1 to the above. I spend a lot of time in NE and NW England for work. I visit labour intensive manufacturing sites in the food sector. The labour force is almost 80% non national in most cases while the surrounding neighbourhoods have unemployment in the order of 15/20%. It's a car crash of epic proportions coming to an island near you.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:24 pm 
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The Naked Chef wrote:
catbear wrote:
Epicurus wrote:

That's not to say there aren't places in England that are tinder boxes. But these could rear up any time. Like London in 2011 or Paris in 2005.

There's a good portion of north England towns and cities that are volatile. When moving over I had no conception of the scale of the poverty in large swaths. It's ripe ground for discontent.


Plus 1 to the above. I spend a lot of time in NE and NW England for work. I visit labour intensive manufacturing sites in the food sector. The labour force is almost 80% non national in most cases while the surrounding neighbourhoods have unemployment in the order of 15/20%. It's a car crash of epic proportions coming to an island near you.


Are poverty levels comparable in Ireland and the UK? I tried googling but I couldn't identify any comparable and trustworthy stats.

I was watching the BBC documentary The Mighty Redcar last week and was struck by the general poverty levels in the town. 66% voted for Brexit, it has 4 food banks and 1 Costa.

Maybe I'm hopelessly out of touch with real Ireland but I'd have thought that outside of Dublin a family could manage on social welfare with a modicum of dignity.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:29 pm 
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The Naked Chef wrote:
catbear wrote:
Epicurus wrote:

That's not to say there aren't places in England that are tinder boxes. But these could rear up any time. Like London in 2011 or Paris in 2005.

There's a good portion of north England towns and cities that are volatile. When moving over I had no conception of the scale of the poverty in large swaths. It's ripe ground for discontent.


Plus 1 to the above. I spend a lot of time in NE and NW England for work. I visit labour intensive manufacturing sites in the food sector. The labour force is almost 80% non national in most cases while the surrounding neighbourhoods have unemployment in the order of 15/20%. It's a car crash of epic proportions coming to an island near you.

I'm glad I'm not the only one on here sees it. All last year after the Manchester Arena bombing there were mosques getting firebombed every week. You'd see it mentioned in the local media but it rarely made the national media unless someone got hurt.

What really strikes me about living here and the media is that you'd have little idea of what the actual public is thinking. The national media is a left/right punch and judy circus while on the streets there's a whole different contest going on, and it isn't nice. The homelessness problem here is on a whole different level to what's happening in Ireland and it's getting worse.

I moved over after the vote for a prearranged career move for my partner, which has paid off, and what really struck me is how in some areas that voted Leave I could well see how they felt things couldn't get worse.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:03 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
I think, on the contrary, that there will be a Withdrawal Agreement, and a backstop, because the alternative for the UK is too scary. The DUP don't have the leverage they think they have. When it really comes to the crunch, there will be a parliamentary majority for some sort of Withdrawal Agreement, and a legally-binding backstop. The UK will not follow the DUP down the road to perdition. (Probably...)


People like to talk about this "backstop" as if it's some magic solution to the inherent contradiction of having a border without a border. There is no logically possible solution to the NI border problem that satisfies all of these criteria:
1) Don't have checks on the NI border
2) Don't have checks in a domestic UK border
3) Allow the UK to deviate even a small bit from EU policy on immigration, food/ag standards, tariffs etc

If there is, I'd love to hear it.


The backstop only has to satisfy the first criterion. And that's what the current EU draft does. The stuff about no domestic checks was put in by the UK and is for them to sort out. The EU is actually keen to work with the UK to allow these to be as non-invasive as possible (and to work alongside existing port checks). The main problem is that the DUP has made a fetish out of no difference between Norn Iron and the 'mainland' (despite lots of existing differences). Eventually, they may realise that the backstop would give N. Ireland the best of both worlds: being able to export friction free to Ireland/EU, and to trade with the UK with almost no disruption (and none for Northern Ireland-origin goods).


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:57 am 
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mortgageboy wrote:
Eventually, they may realise that the backstop would give N. Ireland the best of both worlds: being able to export friction free to Ireland/EU, and to trade with the UK with almost no disruption (and none for Northern Ireland-origin goods).

You won't get far by under-estimating the stupidity of the DUP, even when their best interests are at stake. Having staked their 'point of principle' those ladies are not for turning.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:10 am 
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catbear wrote:
what really struck me is how in some areas that voted Leave I could well see how they felt things couldn't get worse.


This is why I suspect this war on the streets stuff is Blairite, remainer spin. These solid Labour areas voted leave. When they get leave nearly 3 years later, and 'crashing out' I can't see them out rioting and looting. Yes there are some extremists who voted leave and there might even be a few who voted remain. But most of the 52% are decent law abiding folk who took the decision in a mature way and knew enough about the consequences (big red bus notwithstanding), and felt that leaving an extended trading block would not lead to the breakdown of civil order in their communities.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:37 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
catbear wrote:
what really struck me is how in some areas that voted Leave I could well see how they felt things couldn't get worse.


This is why I suspect this war on the streets stuff is Blairite, remainer spin. These solid Labour areas voted leave. When they get leave nearly 3 years later, and 'crashing out' I can't see them out rioting and looting. Yes there are some extremists who voted leave and there might even be a few who voted remain. But most of the 52% are decent law abiding folk who took the decision in a mature way and knew enough about the consequences (big red bus notwithstanding), and felt that leaving an extended trading block would not lead to the breakdown of civil order in their communities.


Are you actually immersed in these areas?

Remember the riots in 2011 when there was only 9% unemployment? Police numbers are well down on then. While in London they raided designer shops for branded gear, in Salford they targeted the Lidl for food.

The one thing Brexit has done is act as a banner around which a lot a disparate groups can assemble.

I had a friend come visit us from her London bubble and even she as a staunch remainer was stunned into silence by the tour we gave her. She said she had no idea how bad it was. Forget the stories in the Guardian or Express, they shut their northern operations decades ago.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:09 pm 
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I agree that England is two different countries (let alone Scotland & Wales). Now more than ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:19 pm 
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catbear wrote:
The Naked Chef wrote:
catbear wrote:
Epicurus wrote:

That's not to say there aren't places in England that are tinder boxes. But these could rear up any time. Like London in 2011 or Paris in 2005.

There's a good portion of north England towns and cities that are volatile. When moving over I had no conception of the scale of the poverty in large swaths. It's ripe ground for discontent.


Plus 1 to the above. I spend a lot of time in NE and NW England for work. I visit labour intensive manufacturing sites in the food sector. The labour force is almost 80% non national in most cases while the surrounding neighbourhoods have unemployment in the order of 15/20%. It's a car crash of epic proportions coming to an island near you.

I'm glad I'm not the only one on here sees it. All last year after the Manchester Arena bombing there were mosques getting firebombed every week. You'd see it mentioned in the local media but it rarely made the national media unless someone got hurt.

What really strikes me about living here and the media is that you'd have little idea of what the actual public is thinking. The national media is a left/right punch and judy circus while on the streets there's a whole different contest going on, and it isn't nice. The homelessness problem here is on a whole different level to what's happening in Ireland and it's getting worse.

I moved over after the vote for a prearranged career move for my partner, which has paid off, and what really struck me is how in some areas that voted Leave I could well see how they felt things couldn't get worse.


You keep saying that you expect the country to descend into anarchy, but who is actually going to riot against whom and why.

The unemployment in those areas is here to stay and so are the migrants, for those people nothing is likely to change, so why will they rise up!

The only people I suspect will cause violence are the migrant communities trying to assert themselves against the natives.

The area of England I lived in rapidly turned into little Pakistan for the 15 or so years I was there, sold the house to an Indian family.
The street was about 80% English/Irish when I moved in and was about 70% Asian when I left, the biggest risk I see is "ethnic Cleansing" continuing where the remaining white residents are bullied into leaving,
I have relatives in North London who are experiencing this type of activity right now.

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Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:38 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
You keep saying that you expect the country to descend into anarchy, but who is actually going to riot against whom and why.

The only people I suspect will cause violence are the migrant communities trying to assert themselves against the natives.

The area of England I lived in rapidly turned into little Pakistan for the 15 or so years I was there, sold the house to an Indian family.
The street was about 80% English/Irish when I moved in and was about 70% Asian when I left, the biggest risk I see is "ethnic Cleansing" continuing where the remaining white residents are bullied into leaving,
I have relatives in North London who are experiencing this type of activity right now.


Well then you know better than anyone what the backlash could be like.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:14 pm 
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catbear wrote:

Well then you know better than anyone what the backlash could be like.

But the point is, the backlash is nothing to do with Brexit, these issues predate Brexit and will be still in existence after Brexit, regardless of how successful or otherwise it is.

So why are you discussing these issues in a Brexit thread.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:34 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
catbear wrote:

Well then you know better than anyone what the backlash could be like.

But the point is, the backlash is nothing to do with Brexit, these issues predate Brexit and will be still in existence after Brexit, regardless of how successful or otherwise it is.

So why are you discussing these issues in a Brexit thread.

Because those issues feed into the whole taking back control of who enters the UK Brexit narrative. You and I know that EU freedom of movement had nothing to do with Britain's commonwealth migration but that won't stop people opposed to that coalescing around the Brexit banner.

The common refrain I hear in North England is "now they're going to work for us, ain't they?".

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Every single frozen corpse in the Death Zone on Everest was once a highly motivated person.

Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:48 pm 
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The main reason people are talking about civil disorder is because a no-deal Brexit could/would cause a severe economic shock, and significant disruption to normal supply chains (including for food). Empty supermarket shelves, or electricity outages could easily lead to riots.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:58 pm 
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mortgageboy wrote:
The main reason people are talking about civil disorder is because a no-deal Brexit could/would cause a severe economic shock, and significant disruption to normal supply chains (including for food). Empty supermarket shelves, or electricity outages could easily lead to riots.

Replace could with will. Go take a 9.99 Ryanair flight to Leeds, Newcastle, or East Midlands and have a day trip lads. It will be an eye opener i assure you.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:07 pm 
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Well many activities in Ireland are fooked then as well.

Let's get preppin


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